SAT 15:30 ET|FBC MORTGAGE STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP18|O/U41.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
9
11-3
21
11
73
68%
1
3
17.3
+175
+6.5
HOME
13
9-5
39
75
10
47%
77
30
23.8
-210
-6.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALM-OH9—APP13
CLOSED APP -6.5TOTAL 41.0M-OH COVERED · 22 POINTS · UNDER
M-OH
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
APP
M-OH
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
APP
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=45
MARKET
TOTAL41.0
SPREADAPP -6.5
IMPLIED — M-OH17.3
IMPLIED — APP23.8
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
M-OHRECORD MATCHES
11-2ACTUALvs10.0-3.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+10.8
MIAMI (OH) won 11 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 10.0. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
APPRECORD MATCHES
8-5ACTUALvs8.0-5.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME+6.4
APP STATE won 8 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 8.0. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERMIAMI (OH)APP STATE2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
WR/TE46%Mac HippenhammerWR · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJalen WalkerWR · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMatt BjorsonTE · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL46%Rusty FethPORTAL · IOWA · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCaleb ShafferPORTAL · OKLAHOMA · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJohn BrekkeOL · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
LB37%Ryan McWoodLB · 36% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB31%John Saunders Jr.PORTAL · OLE MISS · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJa'Von KimpsonDB · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNolan JohnsonPORTAL · OLD DOMINION · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
RB27%Tyre SheltonPORTAL · LOUISIANA TECH · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL1%Marlon Dawson Jr.DL · <1% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
QB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
WR/TERyan Sims · SIGNEE ★3Lynel Billups-Williams · SIGNEE ★3Cole Weaver · SIGNEEPARTIAL
OLJohn Young · PORTAL ★4 · KENTUCKYBen Decker · SIGNEE ★3Edward Hartig · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBChristian McKinney · SIGNEE ★3Malcolm McCain · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBRaion Strader · SIGNEEPARTIAL
RBRashad Amos · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH CAROLINAJanerious Jackson · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DLRoosevelt Andrews III · SIGNEE ★3Ethan McDowell · SIGNEE ★2INTACT
QBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · MIAMI (OH)
CARRIED COMPOSITE
65.186 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
41.622 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
77.798 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB4646679984 OF 8 GRADED
RB5555494976 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE414153472410 OF 24 GRADED
OL424243821813 OF 18 GRADED
DL454546991513 OF 15 GRADED
LB444437951810 OF 18 GRADED
DB474753692014 OF 20 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE21st21
BLUE-CHIP RATIO3%22
RECRUITING CLASS#105 · 0/16 BC22
CLASS RANK TREND-17 · 3 CYCLES16
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 3 IN / 10 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 8th YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX52%97
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
APPSHAWN CLARK4TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4343
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8787
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
M-OHCHUCK MARTIN8TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3434
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESM-OH OFFENSEAPP OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBMIAMI (OH) OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEAPP STATE DEFENSE M-OH QUARTERBACKSn=81% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
APP DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 35 PLAYERS33% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLMIAMI (OH) OFFENSEFRONT-7APP STATE DEFENSE M-OH OFFENSIVE LINEn=1818% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
APP FRONT-7n=23 · 2 ROOMS31% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBMIAMI (OH) OFFENSEFRONT-7APP STATE DEFENSE M-OH RUNNING BACKSn=751% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
APP FRONT-72 ROOMS · 23 PLAYERS29% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554549%8%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEMIAMI (OH) OFFENSESECONDARYAPP STATE DEFENSE M-OH PASS CATCHERSn=2453% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
APP SECONDARYn=12 · 1 ROOM36% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
M-OH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
APP
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−38
−24
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
M-OH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
APP
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
M-OH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
APP
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS64.2%
56.1%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS51.8%
62.0%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.8%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = M-OH, ORANGE = APP) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE