SAT 17:45 ET|UNIVERSITY STADIUM (NM)NONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP27|O/U52.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
10
10-5
17
67
24
84%
10
9
27.8
-175
-3.0
HOME
37
9-4
44
26
36
17%
69
5
24.8
+150
+3.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALNMSU10—FRES37
CLOSED NMSU -3.0TOTAL 52.5FRES COVERED · 47 POINTS · UNDER
NMSU
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
FRES
NMSU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
FRES
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=45
MARKET
TOTAL52.5
SPREADNMSU -3.0
IMPLIED — NMSU27.8
IMPLIED — FRES24.8
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
NMSURECORD MATCHES
10-4ACTUALvs9.2-4.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+6.9
NEW MEXICO STATE won 10 of 14 against a scoring profile describing 9.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
FRESRECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs7.4-4.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+5.3
FRESNO STATE won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERNEW MEXICO STATEFRESNO STATE2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
LB76%Chris OjohLB · 33% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTrevor BrohardLB · 30% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNicholas GiacolonePORTAL · KENT STATE · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB57%Syrus DumasPORTAL · UTSA · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBryce JacksonDB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLinwood CrumpDB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL54%Lazarus WilliamsDL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDonavan KingDL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLama LaveaPORTAL · AKRON · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE32%Justice PowersWR · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEric MarshTE · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJ.J. Jones IIITE · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB5%O'Maury SamuelsRB · 4% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB2%Weston EgetQB · 2% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
OL0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
LBQuincy Davis · SIGNEE ★3Ishmael Aceves · SIGNEEPARTIAL
DBMyles Rowser · PORTAL ★4 · CAMPBELLKeonte Glinton · PORTAL ★3 · WYOMINGJordan Vincent · PORTAL · EASTERN ILLINOIS4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLDion Wilson · PORTAL ★3 · ARIZONAAdam Parks · SIGNEE ★3Jalen Brown · SIGNEE ★21 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
WR/TETyler Devera · PORTAL ★3 · STONY BROOKDonovan Faupel · SIGNEE ★2REFILLED
RBNO STARTING ROLE OPENEDINTACT
QBEli Stowers · PORTAL ★4 · TEXAS A&MMason Graham · SIGNEEBlaze Berlowitz · SIGNEEINTACT
OLNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · NEW MEXICO STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
52.044 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
80.097 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
38.715 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB6767859552 OF 5 GRADED
RB55556698105 OF 10 GRADED
WR/TE474758602617 OF 26 GRADED
OL42425601814 OF 18 GRADED
DL464645721614 OF 16 GRADED
LB32327159207 OF 20 GRADED
DB383841512314 OF 23 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE17th17
BLUE-CHIP RATIO9%54
RECRUITING CLASS#113 · 0/20 BC16
CLASS RANK TREND+1 · 3 CYCLES52
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+2 · 7 IN / 7 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX34%40
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
FRESJEFF TEDFORD2TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9898
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
NMSUJERRY KILL2TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1818
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESNMSU OFFENSEFRES OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBNEW MEXICO STATE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEFRESNO STATE DEFENSE NMSU QUARTERBACKSn=55% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FRES DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 51 PLAYERS21% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLNEW MEXICO STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7FRESNO STATE DEFENSE NMSU OFFENSIVE LINEn=18100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FRES FRONT-7n=29 · 2 ROOMS14% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBNEW MEXICO STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7FRESNO STATE DEFENSE NMSU RUNNING BACKSn=102% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FRES FRONT-72 ROOMS · 29 PLAYERS14% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554583%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TENEW MEXICO STATE OFFENSESECONDARYFRESNO STATE DEFENSE NMSU PASS CATCHERSn=2640% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FRES SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM27% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
NMSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FRES
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−31
−13
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
NMSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FRES
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
NMSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FRES
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS63.9%
43.6%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS67.0%
71.7%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.6%
0.4%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = NMSU, ORANGE = FRES) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE