THU 11:00 ET|FENWAY PARKNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP15|O/U49.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
14
11-3
76
58
86
42%
80
17
31.3
-435
-13.5
HOME
23
7-6
61
82
26
37%
81
48
17.8
+325
+13.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALSMU14—BC23
CLOSED SMU -13.5TOTAL 49.0BC COVERED · 37 POINTS · UNDER
SMU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
BC
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=45
MARKET
TOTAL49.0
SPREADSMU -13.5
IMPLIED — SMU31.3
IMPLIED — BC17.8
PACE COLLISION
FAST × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
SMURECORD MATCHES
11-2ACTUALvs11.5-1.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+23.2
SMU won 11 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 11.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
BCRECORD OVERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs4.8-7.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-4.5
BOSTON COLLEGE won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERSMUBOSTON COLLEGE2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
LB94%Jimmy Phillips Jr.LB · 34% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONIsaac Slade-MatautiaLB · 30% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONShanon ReidLB · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB86%Tanner MordecaiPORTAL · WISCONSIN · 86% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE51%Rashee RiceWR · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBen ReddingTE · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAustin UpshawWR · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB45%Nick RobertsS · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAr'mani JohnsonCB · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSam WestfallPORTAL · VIRGINIA · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL44%Owen CondonOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJoe BissingerOL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaylon ThomasOL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
RB32%Tre SiggersPORTAL · INCARNATE WORD · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTJ McDanielPORTAL · NORTHERN ARIZONA · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL29%Gary WileyDE · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTerrance NewmanDT · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJunior AhoDT · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
LBAhmad Walker · PORTAL ★3 · LIBERTYKobe Wilson · PORTAL ★3 · TEMPLEAlex Kilgore · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
QBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
WR/TEJordan Hudson · PORTAL ★4 · TCUKey'Shawn Smith · PORTAL ★3 · MIAMIMicah Hilts · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS STATE4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBCharles Woods · PORTAL ★3 · WEST VIRGINIACale Sanders · PORTAL ★3 · FRESNO STATEJonathan McGill · PORTAL ★3 · STANFORD1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
OLHyrin White · PORTAL ★3 · MISSOURIPJ Williams · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS A&MJakai Clark · PORTAL ★3 · MIAMI2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBLJ Johnson · PORTAL ★4 · TEXAS A&MJaylan Knighton · PORTAL ★3 · MIAMIREFILLED
DLJordan Miller · PORTAL ★3 · MIAMICam Robertson · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH TEXASElijah Roberts · PORTAL ★3 · MIAMI1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · SMU
CARRIED COMPOSITE
51.142 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
51.446 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
50.942 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB5959589784 OF 8 GRADED
RB4747483866 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE616176633122 OF 31 GRADED
OL646478612318 OF 23 GRADED
DL767656532118 OF 21 GRADED
LB646479976 OF 7 GRADED
DB636366422220 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE76th76
BLUE-CHIP RATIO20%72
RECRUITING CLASS#72 · 0/17 BC47
CLASS RANK TREND-19 · 3 CYCLES12
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+1 · 26 IN / 23 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX33%31
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
BCJEFF HAFLEY4TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5656
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5959
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
SMURHETT LASHLEE2TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7575
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4848
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESSMU OFFENSEBC OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBSMU OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEBOSTON COLLEGE DEFENSE SMU QUARTERBACKSn=83% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BC DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 52 PLAYERS31% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLSMU OFFENSEFRONT-7BOSTON COLLEGE DEFENSE SMU OFFENSIVE LINEn=2339% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BC FRONT-7n=33 · 2 ROOMS16% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBSMU OFFENSEFRONT-7BOSTON COLLEGE DEFENSE SMU RUNNING BACKSn=662% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BC FRONT-72 ROOMS · 33 PLAYERS16% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554380%11%LINEBACKERSLB
0.453490%14%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TESMU OFFENSESECONDARYBOSTON COLLEGE DEFENSE SMU PASS CATCHERSn=3137% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BC SECONDARYn=19 · 1 ROOM43% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
SMU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BC
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−8
+21
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
SMU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BC
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
SMU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BC
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS63.0%
64.5%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS67.8%
58.2%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.6%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = SMU, ORANGE = BC) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE