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HOME›SLATE›2024›WEEK 1›IU @ ND›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
PSU @ WVU77
MIA @ FLA77
TCU @ STAN70
UNLV @ HOU70
WYO @ ASU70
USC @ LSU70
ND @ TA&M69
CLEM @ UGA67
M-OH @ NU67
CSU @ TEX66
ODU @ SC65
FIU @ IU64
AKR @ OSU64
UNC @ MINN63
WKU @ ALA63
SHSU @ RICE61
TEM @ OU59
UNT @ USA59
GAST @ GT59
UCLA @ HAW58
FRES @ MICH57
USM @ UK56
BC @ FSU55
UTEP @ NEB54
KENT @ PITT53
BOIS @ GASO52
JMU @ CLT52
UNM @ ARIZ52
CCU @ JXST51
OHIO @ SYR50
FAU @ MSU49
WMU @ WIS47
EMU @ MASS44
VT @ VAN43
NEV @ TROY41
KENN @ UTSA39
CONN @ MD38
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
INDIANA
NOTRE DAME
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2024
FRI 20:00 ET|NOTRE DAME STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP34|O/U50.0COLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
#10AP
10FPI
IUB1GINDIANA
17
11-2
59
96
92
43%
49
45
21.5
+260
+7.0
HOME
#2AP
2FPI
NDINDNOTRE DAME
27
14-2
93
87
97
37%
22
49
28.5
-320
-7.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALIU17—ND27
CLOSED ND -7.0TOTAL 50.0ND COVERED · 44 POINTS · UNDER
IU
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
ND
17
POINTS
27
278
TOTAL YARDS
394
215 (20-34)
PASSING
201 (23-32)
63 (27)
RUSHING
193 (35)
17
FIRST DOWNS
20
4-12
THIRD DOWN
7-13
1-1
FOURTH DOWN
0-0
24:20
TIME OF POSS.
35:40
5-46
PENALTIES
6-35
1
TURNOVERS
1
2
SACKS
3
1
QB HURRIES
2
IU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
ND
0.118
SEASON 0.411
EPA / PLAY
0.263
SEASON 0.368
36.7%
SEASON 54.2%
SUCCESS RATE
47.7%
SEASON 46.1%
16.7%
SEASON 19.1%
EXPLOSIVE RATE
7.7%
SEASON 16.8%
4.40
SEASON 6.98
YARDS / PLAY
6.12
SEASON 6.71
0.263
SEASON 0.083
EPA ALLOWED
0.118
SEASON 0.066
47.7%
SEASON 36.6%
SUCCESS ALLOWED
36.7%
SEASON 36.6%
7.7%
SEASON 9.8%
EXPLOSIVE ALLOWED
16.7%
SEASON 11.2%
27.3%
SEASON 23.8%
STUFF RATE
29.2%
SEASON 13.4%
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=37
MARKET
TOTAL50.0
SPREADND -7.0
IMPLIED — IU21.5
IMPLIED — ND28.5
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × SLOW
IU PACE27.9s
49
ND PACE29.2s
22
SHARED PACE28.6s
35
PLAY VOLUME126
35
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IU51CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
38
PROE
65
TEMPO
49
EXPLOSIVE38p
38
PROE65p
65
TEMPO49p
49
ND46CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
60
PROE
58
TEMPO
22
EXPLOSIVE60p
60
PROE58p
58
TEMPO22p
22
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
IURECORD MATCHES
11-1ACTUALvs11.1-0.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+28.7
INDIANA won 11 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 11.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
NDRECORD MATCHES
11-1ACTUALvs11.1-0.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+26.3
NOTRE DAME won 11 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 11.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERINDIANANOTRE DAME2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB100%Jaylin LucasPORTAL · FLORIDA STATE · 35% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJosh HendersonRB · 26% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTrent HowlandPORTAL · OKLAHOMA STATE · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB91%Aaron CaseyLB · 60% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMyles JacksonPORTAL · TULSA · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMatt HohltLB · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB67%Brendan SorsbyPORTAL · CINCINNATI · 67% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB63%Louis MoorePORTAL · OLE MISS · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKobee MinorPORTAL · MEMPHIS · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONPhillip DunnamPORTAL · FLORIDA ATLANTIC · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL60%Zach CarpenterPORTAL · MIAMI · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKahlil BensonPORTAL · COLORADO · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMatthew BedfordOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL51%Andre CarterDL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONPhilip BlidiPORTAL · AUBURN · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAnthony Jones Jr.PORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE41%Bradley ArcherTE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDeQuece CarterWR · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCameron CamperPORTAL · BOISE STATE · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBElijah Green · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH CAROLINAKaelon Black · PORTAL ★3 · JAMES MADISONREFILLED
LBJailin Walker · PORTAL ★3 · JAMES MADISONAiden Fisher · PORTAL ★3 · JAMES MADISONQuentin Clark · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
QBKurtis Rourke · PORTAL ★4 · OHIOTyler Cherry · SIGNEE ★4REFILLED
DBShawn Asbury II · PORTAL ★3 · OLD DOMINIOND’Angelo Ponds · PORTAL ★3 · JAMES MADISONJosh Philostin · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLTyler Stephens · PORTAL ★3 · JAMES MADISONNick Kidwell · PORTAL ★3 · JAMES MADISONTrey Wedig · PORTAL ★3 · WISCONSIN2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLCJ West · PORTAL ★3 · KENT STATEAndrew Depaepe · PORTAL ★3 · MICHIGAN STATEJames Carpenter · PORTAL ★3 · JAMES MADISON1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
WR/TEElijah Sarratt · PORTAL ★4 · JAMES MADISONMiles Cross · PORTAL ★3 · OHIOMyles Price · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS TECH3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · INDIANA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
37.312 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
38.724 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
36.518 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB4949891043 OF 4 GRADED
RB484857187 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE696969242016 OF 20 GRADED
OL555558571610 OF 16 GRADED
DL828265342215 OF 22 GRADED
LB6262710117 OF 11 GRADED
DB696970512414 OF 24 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE59th59
BLUE-CHIP RATIO14%62
RECRUITING CLASS#65 · 1/17 BC52
CLASS RANK TREND-39 · 3 CYCLES0
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 30 IN / 42 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
NDMARCUS FREEMAN3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4747
PACE
1818
PASS RATE
1616
EXPLOSIVENESS
7777
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8181
HAVOC
8484
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
IUCURT CIGNETTIFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6666
PACE
7474
PASS RATE
2121
EXPLOSIVENESS
2828
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4343
HAVOC
100100
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESIU OFFENSEND OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBINDIANA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
88OF 132
TAL
89
PERF
49
RET
10
NATIONAL
5OF 134
RET
72
FULL DEFENSENOTRE DAME DEFENSE
IU QUARTERBACKSn=490% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KURTIS ROURKEQBPORTAL · OHIO
804TH YR9692★4+36
TAYVEN JACKSONQBRET
494TH YR5164★3+11
ALBERTO MENDOZAQBTRUE FR
413RD YR364★3—
ROMAN PURCELLQBRET
353RD YR—31★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ND DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 50 PLAYERS31% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
6378%53%
LINEBACKERSLB
5685%45%
SECONDARYDB
6960%45%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLINDIANA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
54OF 134
TAL
58
PERF
55
RET
57
DL
37OF 134
DL RET
78
LB
51OF 134
LB RET
85
FRONT-7NOTRE DAME DEFENSE
IU OFFENSIVE LINEn=1643% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MIKE KATICOLRET
844TH YR9956★3+35
BRAY LYNCHOLRET
734TH YR6761★3+25
NICK KIDWELLOLPORTAL · JAMES MADISON
794TH YR—78★3+29 2023
CARTER SMITHOLRET
734TH YR8585★3-8
DREW EVANSOLRET
714TH YR552★2+36
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ND FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS19% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
RYLIE MILLSDLRET
744TH YR9394★4+22
DONOVAN HINISHDLRET
693RD YR6481★3+13
JUNIOR TUIHALAMAKADLRET
654TH YR7094★4+33
GABRIEL RUBIODLRET
654TH YR6695★4-39
JASON ONYEDLRET
634TH YR4974★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBINDIANA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
85OF 134
TAL
57
PERF
48
RET
1
DL
37OF 134
DL RET
78
LB
51OF 134
LB RET
85
FRONT-7NOTRE DAME DEFENSE
IU RUNNING BACKSn=899% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JUSTICE ELLISONRBPORTAL · WAKE FOREST
684TH YR9664★3-14
SOLOMON VANHORSERBPORTAL · JAMES MADISON
524TH YR—17★3-10
ELIJAH GREENRBTRUE FR
524TH YR7317★3+25
KAELON BLACKRBPORTAL · JAMES MADISON
504TH YR8485★3+23
KHOBIE MARTINRBTRUE FR
502ND YR2255★30
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ND FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS19% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556378%53%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.455685%45%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEINDIANA OFFENSE
NATIONAL
13OF 133
TAL
69
PERF
69
RET
24
DB
10OF 134
DB RET
60
SECONDARYNOTRE DAME DEFENSE
IU PASS CATCHERSn=2076% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ELIJAH SARRATTWRPORTAL · JAMES MADISON
894TH YR9392★4+35
ZACH HORTONTEPORTAL · JAMES MADISON
674TH YR8945★3+53
OMAR COOPER JR.WRRET
623RD YR7388★4+32
DONAVEN MCCULLEYWRRET
584TH YR8578★3+2
KE'SHAWN WILLIAMSWRPORTAL · WAKE FOREST
554TH YR9164★3+21
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ND SECONDARYn=20 · 1 ROOM40% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
XAVIER WATTSSRET
874TH YR9985★4+17
LEONARD MOORECBTRUE FR
813RD YR7286★4-3
ADON SHULERSRET
803RD YR7588★4+22
CHRISTIAN GRAYCBRET
644TH YR8196★4-25
BENJAMIN MORRISONCBRET
563RD YR9488★4+1
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
IU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ND
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
62.4
66.1
— OFFENSE
53.9
69.7
— DEFENSE
70.9
62.6
SP+ OVERALL
20.1
23.9
FPI
18.7
25.3
ELO
1951
2154
TALENT
669
906
PRODUCTION
92
95
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−34
−2
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.14
0.67
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
IU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ND
OFF EFFICIENCY
99
77
DEF EFFICIENCY
93
86
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
38
60
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
85
94
FINISHING DRIVES
100
92
FIELD POSITION
3
8
TURNOVER MARGIN
98
99
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
IU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ND
PASS RATE
43.7%
44.8%
PROE
+2.2
+0.9
PACE
27.9s
29.2s
4TH-DOWN GO RATE
34%
32%
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
62.5%
60.3%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
60.7%
57.6%
PLAYS / GAME
64.5
61.6
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
4.4%
3.1%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = IU, ORANGE = ND) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE