SAT 20:00 ET|OHIO STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP10|O/U47.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
17
10-3
88
70
96
33%
98
67
19.8
+235
+7.5
HOME
42
14-2
99
99
99
22%
22
69
27.3
-290
-7.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALTENN17—OSU42
CLOSED OSU -7.5TOTAL 47.0OSU COVERED · 59 POINTS · OVER
TENN
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
OSU
TENN
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
OSU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=37
MARKET
TOTAL47.0
SPREADOSU -7.5
IMPLIED — TENN19.8
IMPLIED — OSU27.3
PACE COLLISION
FAST × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
TENNRECORD MATCHES
10-2ACTUALvs10.9-1.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+23.3
TENNESSEE won 10 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 10.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
OSURECORD UNDERSTATES
10-2ACTUALvs11.3-0.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+24.6
OHIO STATE won 10 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 11.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERTENNESSEEOHIO STATE2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB84%Joe Milton IIIDRAFTED · 84% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DB79%Jaylen McColloughDB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGabe Jeudy-LallyDB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONWesley WalkerPORTAL · MICHIGAN · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION8 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB68%Aaron BeasleyLB · 38% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONElijah HerringPORTAL · MEMPHIS · 31% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
RB63%Jaylen WrightDRAFTED · 39% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJabari SmallRB · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE49%Ramel KeytonWR · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMcCallan CastlesTE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJacob WarrenTE · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL41%Ollie LaneOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGerald MinceyPORTAL · KENTUCKY · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJeremiah CrawfordOL · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL31%Tyler BaronPORTAL · MIAMI · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKurott GarlandDL · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRoman HarrisonDL · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBJake Merklinger · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
DBJermod McCoy · PORTAL ★4 · OREGON STATEJakobe Thomas · PORTAL ★3 · MIDDLE TENNESSEEKaleb Beasley · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBEdwin Spillman · SIGNEE ★4Jordan Burns · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
RBPeyton Lewis · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
WR/TEHolden Staes · PORTAL ★4 · NOTRE DAMEChris Brazzell II · PORTAL ★4 · TULANEMike Matthews · SIGNEE ★51 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
OLLance Heard · PORTAL ★4 · LSUBennett Warren · SIGNEE ★4William Satterwhite II · SIGNEE ★43 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLJaxson Moi · PORTAL ★3 · STANFORDJordan Ross · SIGNEE ★5Kellen Lindstrom · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · TENNESSEE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
44.835 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
53.259 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
40.223 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB5555989754 OF 5 GRADED
RB7575746966 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE626283502718 OF 27 GRADED
OL626286792120 OF 21 GRADED
DL808089892322 OF 23 GRADED
LB696986931312 OF 13 GRADED
DB575785522118 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE88th88
BLUE-CHIP RATIO46%87
RECRUITING CLASS#14 · 13/23 BC90
CLASS RANK TREND+4 · 3 CYCLES58
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+3 · 9 IN / 16 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 4th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
OSURYAN DAY6TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8181
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6565
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
TENNJOSH HEUPEL4TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6969
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4949
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESTENN OFFENSEOSU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBTENNESSEE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEOHIO STATE DEFENSE TENN QUARTERBACKSn=53% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
OSU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 55 PLAYERS19% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLTENNESSEE OFFENSEFRONT-7OHIO STATE DEFENSE TENN OFFENSIVE LINEn=2121% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
OSU FRONT-7n=34 · 2 ROOMS9% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBTENNESSEE OFFENSEFRONT-7OHIO STATE DEFENSE TENN RUNNING BACKSn=631% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
OSU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 34 PLAYERS10% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.557195%67%LINEBACKERSLB
0.457083%46%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TETENNESSEE OFFENSESECONDARYOHIO STATE DEFENSE TENN PASS CATCHERSn=2750% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
OSU SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM27% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
TENN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
OSU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−6
−2
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
TENN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
OSU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
TENN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
OSU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS62.4%
57.8%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS50.8%
64.3%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.9%
3.3%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = TENN, ORANGE = OSU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE