MON 11:00 ET|BROOKS STADIUM (SC)NONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP18|O/U56.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
15
6-7
34
25
11
27%
24
26
22.0
+340
+12.5
HOME
44
7-6
52
23
53
33%
100
40
34.5
-440
-12.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALCCU15—UTSA44
CLOSED UTSA -12.5TOTAL 56.5UTSA COVERED · 59 POINTS · OVER
CCU
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
UTSA
CCU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
UTSA
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=37
MARKET
TOTAL56.5
SPREADUTSA -12.5
IMPLIED — CCU22.0
IMPLIED — UTSA34.5
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
CCURECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs5.8-6.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME-0.8
COASTAL CAROLINA won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
UTSARECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs6.2-5.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+0.9
UTSA won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERCOASTAL CAROLINAUTSA2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DL74%Will WhitsonDL · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKennedy RobertsDL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAllen HenryDL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION8 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB70%Grayson McCallPORTAL · NC STATE · 55% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJarrett GuestPORTAL · BRYANT · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB57%Reese WhiteRB · 29% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCJ BeasleyPORTAL · GEORGIA STATE · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE54%Sam PinckneyWR · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJared BrownPORTAL · SOUTH CAROLINA · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMatt AlaimoTE · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB46%JT KillenPORTAL · EASTERN MICHIGAN · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCarlos HatcherLB · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMason SheltonLB · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB37%Clayton IsbellS · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKeonte LuskCB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL34%Will McDonaldPORTAL · CALIFORNIA · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDillon LutherOL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DLDeamontae Diggs · PORTAL ★3 · YOUNGSTOWN STATENaejuan Barber · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH CAROLINA STATEIbrahim Diawara · PORTAL ★3 · SHIPPENSBURG UNIVERSITYREFILLED
QBNoah Kim · PORTAL ★3 · MICHIGAN STATEDJ Moore · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
RBSimeon Price · PORTAL ★3 · MISSISSIPPI STATEChristian Washington · PORTAL ★3 · NEW MEXICOD'Marius Rucker · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
WR/TEAndre Jones · PORTAL ★3 · EASTERN NEW MEXICOSenika McKie · PORTAL ★3 · UNLVJalen Harris · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
LBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
DBXamarion Gordon · PORTAL ★3 · USCAJ Williams · PORTAL ★3 · WAKE FORESTZach Cody · SIGNEE ★34 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLSawyer Goram-Welch · PORTAL ★3 · TEXASJulius Tate · SIGNEE ★3Daniel Jones · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · COASTAL CAROLINA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
44.734 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
36.319 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
49.850 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB6666287643 OF 4 GRADED
RB6161485586 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE595954572113 OF 21 GRADED
OL606033832114 OF 21 GRADED
DL434348221817 OF 18 GRADED
LB43433479137 OF 13 GRADED
DB494947632420 OF 24 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE34th34
BLUE-CHIP RATIO6%37
RECRUITING CLASS#75 · 0/22 BC44
CLASS RANK TREND-6 · 3 CYCLES38
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 18 IN / 29 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
UTSAJEFF TRAYLOR5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7474
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6666
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
CCUTIM BECK2TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
2424
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3838
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESCCU OFFENSEUTSA OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBCOASTAL CAROLINA OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEUTSA DEFENSE CCU QUARTERBACKSn=424% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UTSA DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 55 PLAYERS30% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLCOASTAL CAROLINA OFFENSEFRONT-7UTSA DEFENSE CCU OFFENSIVE LINEn=2117% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UTSA FRONT-7n=38 · 2 ROOMS19% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBCOASTAL CAROLINA OFFENSEFRONT-7UTSA DEFENSE CCU RUNNING BACKSn=845% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UTSA FRONT-72 ROOMS · 38 PLAYERS19% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.557281%6%LINEBACKERSLB
0.456783%15%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TECOASTAL CAROLINA OFFENSESECONDARYUTSA DEFENSE CCU PASS CATCHERSn=2143% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UTSA SECONDARYn=17 · 1 ROOM39% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
CCU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UTSA
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+6
−3
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
CCU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UTSA
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
CCU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UTSA
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS64.8%
52.6%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS61.5%
64.5%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.1%
1.6%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = CCU, ORANGE = UTSA) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE