FRI 22:30 ET|ALLEGIANT STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP6|O/U56.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
31
8-5
96
84
86
57%
68
85
30.0
-180
-3.5
HOME
35
7-6
90
93
67
22%
80
76
26.5
+150
+3.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALTA&M31—USC35
CLOSED TA&M -3.5TOTAL 56.5USC COVERED · 66 POINTS · OVER
TA&M
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
USC
TA&M
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
USC
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=37
MARKET
TOTAL56.5
SPREADTA&M -3.5
IMPLIED — TA&M30.0
IMPLIED — USC26.5
PACE COLLISION
FAST × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
TA&MRECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs8.4-3.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+9.2
TEXAS A&M won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
USCRECORD UNDERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs7.6-4.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-5
POINT MARGIN / GAME+6.3
USC won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERTEXAS A&MUSC2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
WR/TE60%Max WrightTE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJake JohnsonPORTAL · NORTH CAROLINA · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAinias SmithDRAFTED · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB57%Demani RichardsonDB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJacoby MathewsS · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJosh DeBerryDB · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL57%Fadil DiggsPORTAL · SYRACUSE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMcKinnley JacksonDRAFTED · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONWalter NolenPORTAL · OLE MISS · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB54%Edgerrin CooperDRAFTED · 31% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChris Russell Jr.LB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB44%Max JohnsonPORTAL · NORTH CAROLINA · 44% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
OL34%Bryce FosterPORTAL · KANSAS · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLayden RobinsonDRAFTED · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB6%David BaileyRB · 4% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
WR/TECyrus Allen · PORTAL ★4 · LOUISIANA TECHAshton Bethel-Roman · SIGNEE ★4Izaiah Williams · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBDezz Ricks · PORTAL ★4 · ALABAMADonovan Saunders · PORTAL ★4 · CAL POLYWill Lee III · PORTAL ★4 · KANSAS STATE4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLNic Scourton · PORTAL ★4 · PURDUECashius Howell · PORTAL ★4 · BOWLING GREENDealyn Evans · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBScooby Williams · PORTAL ★4 · FLORIDAJordan Lockhart · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
QBMiles O'Neill · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
OLBlake Ivy · SIGNEE ★4Isendre Ahfua · SIGNEE ★4Ashton Funk · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
RBNO STARTING ROLE OPENEDINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · TEXAS A&M
CARRIED COMPOSITE
43.028 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
42.130 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
43.730 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB5858919993 OF 9 GRADED
RB5757888196 OF 9 GRADED
WR/TE545487452816 OF 28 GRADED
OL636385652315 OF 23 GRADED
DL616193632220 OF 22 GRADED
LB73738060139 OF 13 GRADED
DB585890332615 OF 26 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE96th96
BLUE-CHIP RATIO61%94
RECRUITING CLASS#19 · 16/17 BC86
CLASS RANK TREND-18 · 3 CYCLES14
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 26 IN / 32 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
USCLINCOLN RILEY3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9797
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6767
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
TA&MMIKE ELKOFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3535
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2929
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESTA&M OFFENSEUSC OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBTEXAS A&M OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEUSC DEFENSE TA&M QUARTERBACKSn=91% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USC DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 52 PLAYERS51% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLTEXAS A&M OFFENSEFRONT-7USC DEFENSE TA&M OFFENSIVE LINEn=2335% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USC FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS41% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBTEXAS A&M OFFENSEFRONT-7USC DEFENSE TA&M RUNNING BACKSn=919% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USC FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS42% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.553662%33%LINEBACKERSLB
0.452954%36%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TETEXAS A&M OFFENSESECONDARYUSC DEFENSE TA&M PASS CATCHERSn=2855% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USC SECONDARYn=20 · 1 ROOM59% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
TA&M
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
USC
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+4
+6
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
TA&M
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
USC
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
TA&M
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
USC
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS62.8%
45.4%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS50.4%
74.5%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.4%
0.3%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = TA&M, ORANGE = USC) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE