SAT 12:00 ET|YANKEE STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP26|O/U47.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
15
7-6
58
59
74
88%
47
77
22.3
+136
+3.0
HOME
20
7-6
84
61
56
63%
56
86
25.3
-162
-3.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALBC15—NEB20
CLOSED NEB -3.0TOTAL 47.5NEB COVERED · 35 POINTS · UNDER
BC
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
NEB
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=37
MARKET
TOTAL47.5
SPREADNEB -3.0
IMPLIED — BC22.3
IMPLIED — NEB25.3
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
BCRECORD MATCHES
7-5ACTUALvs7.4-4.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+5.2
BOSTON COLLEGE won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
NEBRECORD UNDERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs7.3-4.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-5
POINT MARGIN / GAME+4.0
NEBRASKA won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERBOSTON COLLEGENEBRASKA2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
WR/TE44%George TakacsTE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJoseph Griffin Jr.WR · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRyan O'KeefeWR · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB37%Vinny DePalmaLB · 37% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
OL37%Kyle HergelOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChristian MahoganyDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB36%John PupelDB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONElijah JonesDRAFTED · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB25%Patrick Garwo IIIPORTAL · NEVADA · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCam BarfieldPORTAL · HAWAI'I · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL15%Khris BanksDL · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONShitta SillahPORTAL · PURDUE · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
QB7%Emmett MoreheadQB · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
WR/TEKamari Morales · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH CAROLINAJerand Bradley · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS TECHJayden McGowan · PORTAL ★3 · VANDERBILT2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBOmar Thornton · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLJudah Pruitt · SIGNEE ★3Jadon Lafontant · SIGNEE ★3Pape Abdoulaye Sy · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBCameron Martinez · PORTAL ★3 · OHIO STATEBryquice Brown · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIA STATERyan Turner · PORTAL ★3 · OHIO STATE2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBJordan McDonald · PORTAL ★3 · UCFTreshaun Ward · PORTAL ★3 · KANSAS STATETurbo Richard · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
DLSedarius McConnell · PORTAL ★3 · ILLINOISJayzen Flint · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
QBGrayson James · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA INTERNATIONALJohnathan Montague Jr. · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · BOSTON COLLEGE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
63.687 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
50.752 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
71.792 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB4141555163 OF 6 GRADED
RB5656854674 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE595973682317 OF 23 GRADED
OL505075951712 OF 17 GRADED
DL606055891714 OF 17 GRADED
LB37374798157 OF 15 GRADED
DB494960542320 OF 23 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE58th58
BLUE-CHIP RATIO10%51
RECRUITING CLASS#95 · 0/12 BC29
CLASS RANK TREND-55 · 3 CYCLES0
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 10 IN / 17 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
NEBMATT RHULE2TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4747
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5757
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
BCBILL O'BRIENFIRST SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4949
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9090
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESBC OFFENSENEB OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBBOSTON COLLEGE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSENEBRASKA DEFENSE BC QUARTERBACKSn=649% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NEB DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 73 PLAYERS20% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLBOSTON COLLEGE OFFENSEFRONT-7NEBRASKA DEFENSE BC OFFENSIVE LINEn=175% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NEB FRONT-7n=41 · 2 ROOMS16% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBBOSTON COLLEGE OFFENSEFRONT-7NEBRASKA DEFENSE BC RUNNING BACKSn=754% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NEB FRONT-72 ROOMS · 41 PLAYERS17% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556687%21%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEBOSTON COLLEGE OFFENSESECONDARYNEBRASKA DEFENSE BC PASS CATCHERSn=2332% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NEB SECONDARYn=32 · 1 ROOM23% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
BC
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NEB
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+9
+18
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
BC
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NEB
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
BC
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NEB
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS72.4%
57.7%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS71.0%
74.1%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.7%
1.8%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = BC, ORANGE = NEB) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE