SAT 16:30 ET|ARIZONA STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP9|O/U42.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
43
9-5
20
37
58
60%
1
19
21.8
-120
-1.0
HOME
17
8-5
30
33
24
64%
30
2
20.8
+100
+1.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALM-OH43—CSU17
CLOSED M-OH -1.0TOTAL 42.5M-OH COVERED · 60 POINTS · OVER
M-OH
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
CSU
M-OH
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
CSU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=37
MARKET
TOTAL42.5
SPREADM-OH -1.0
IMPLIED — M-OH21.8
IMPLIED — CSU20.8
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
M-OHRECORD MATCHES
8-5ACTUALvs7.9-5.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+3.7
MIAMI (OH) won 8 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 7.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
CSURECORD OVERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs6.2-5.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+0.7
COLORADO STATE won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERMIAMI (OH)COLORADO STATE2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
WR/TE72%Joe Wilkins Jr.WR · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLuke BoldenTE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGage LarvadainPORTAL · SOUTH CAROLINA · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB60%Jacquez WarrenPORTAL · ROBERT MORRIS · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONYahsyn McKeeDB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMichael DowellDB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB49%Rashad AmosPORTAL · OLE MISS · 49% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL47%Caiden WoullardPORTAL · OKLAHOMA · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAustin ErtlDL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAnthony CollierDL · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB34%Aveon SmithPORTAL · ALABAMA A&M · 34% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
OL23%Ben JacksonOL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSam VaughanOL · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB5%Dominic NardoneLB · 4% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
WR/TEPreston Daniel · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA STATEZach Meeks · SIGNEE ★3Braylon Littlejohn · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
DBToney Coleman Jr. · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBDylan Downing · PORTAL ★3 · PURDUETito Glass Jr. · SIGNEE ★3D'Shawntae Jones · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DLJJ Hammonds · SIGNEE ★3Oyeka Alexander · SIGNEE ★3William Goodvine III · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
QBThomas Gotkowski · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
OLJacob Schorsch · SIGNEE ★3Kris Manu · SIGNEE ★3Aiden Howard · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
LBCarter Herriman · SIGNEE ★3Jayden Fuller · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · MIAMI (OH)
CARRIED COMPOSITE
54.961 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
49.448 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
57.470 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB13138610052 OF 5 GRADED
RB3737308696 OF 9 GRADED
WR/TE515165702113 OF 21 GRADED
OL424243931812 OF 18 GRADED
DL363641812013 OF 20 GRADED
LB434345981712 OF 17 GRADED
DB414146811913 OF 19 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE20th20
BLUE-CHIP RATIO1%7
RECRUITING CLASS#82 · 0/25 BC39
CLASS RANK TREND-5 · 3 CYCLES40
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 5 IN / 11 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 9th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
CSUJAY NORVELL3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7070
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5353
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
M-OHCHUCK MARTIN9TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3434
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESM-OH OFFENSECSU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBMIAMI (OH) OFFENSEFULL DEFENSECOLORADO STATE DEFENSE M-OH QUARTERBACKSn=50% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CSU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 51 PLAYERS29% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLMIAMI (OH) OFFENSEFRONT-7COLORADO STATE DEFENSE M-OH OFFENSIVE LINEn=187% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CSU FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS32% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBMIAMI (OH) OFFENSEFRONT-7COLORADO STATE DEFENSE M-OH RUNNING BACKSn=914% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CSU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS32% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.553262%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEMIAMI (OH) OFFENSESECONDARYCOLORADO STATE DEFENSE M-OH PASS CATCHERSn=2130% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CSU SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM26% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
M-OH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CSU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−31
−2
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
M-OH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CSU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
M-OH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CSU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS51.3%
67.8%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS61.3%
70.3%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.4%
0.8%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = M-OH, ORANGE = CSU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE