TUE 12:00 ET|RAYMOND JAMES STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP11|O/U45.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
13
9-4
100
95
89
60%
43
95
31.0
-850
-16.5
HOME
19
8-5
89
59
85
26%
9
86
14.5
+575
+16.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALALA13—MICH19
CLOSED ALA -16.5TOTAL 45.5MICH COVERED · 32 POINTS · UNDER
ALA
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
MICH
ALA
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
MICH
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=37
MARKET
TOTAL45.5
SPREADALA -16.5
IMPLIED — ALA31.0
IMPLIED — MICH14.5
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
ALARECORD UNDERSTATES
9-3ACTUALvs10.2-1.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+18.3
ALABAMA won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 10.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
MICHRECORD MATCHES
7-5ACTUALvs6.6-5.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+1.8
MICHIGAN won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERALABAMAMICHIGAN2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB82%Jase McClellanDRAFTED · 50% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRoydell WilliamsPORTAL · FLORIDA STATE · 33% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DB82%Caleb DownsPORTAL · OHIO STATE · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKool-Aid McKinstryDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTerrion ArnoldDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB55%Dallas TurnerDRAFTED · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChris BraswellDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTrezmen MarshallLB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE53%Isaiah BondPORTAL · TEXAS · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAmari NiblackPORTAL · TEXAS · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJermaine BurtonDRAFTED · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL48%JC LathamDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSeth McLaughlinPORTAL · OHIO STATE · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDarrian DalcourtOL · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL36%Justin EboigbeDRAFTED · 35% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBKevin Riley · SIGNEE ★4Daniel Hill · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
DBKeon Sabb · PORTAL ★4 · MICHIGANKing Mack · PORTAL ★4 · PENN STATEDomani Jackson · PORTAL ★4 · USC5 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBCayden Jones · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
WR/TERyan Coleman-Williams · SIGNEE ★5Caleb Odom · SIGNEE ★4Amari Jefferson · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
OLKadyn Proctor · PORTAL ★5 · IOWAParker Brailsford · PORTAL ★4 · WASHINGTONCasey Poe · SIGNEE ★4REFILLED
DLLT Overton · PORTAL ★4 · TEXAS A&MJeremiah Beaman · SIGNEE ★4Noah Carter · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
QBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · ALABAMA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
40.818 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
49.650 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
35.216 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB6666979964 OF 6 GRADED
RB5050959087 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE848489512719 OF 27 GRADED
OL595988682218 OF 22 GRADED
DL606094651614 OF 16 GRADED
LB57579693189 OF 18 GRADED
DB686892392314 OF 23 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE100th100
BLUE-CHIP RATIO80%100
RECRUITING CLASS#2 · 22/28 BC99
CLASS RANK TREND0 · 3 CYCLES50
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-8 · 14 IN / 38 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
MICHSHERRONE MOOREFIRST SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1616
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1111
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
ALAKALEN DEBOERFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7979
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4646
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESALA OFFENSEMICH OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBALABAMA OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEMICHIGAN DEFENSE ALA QUARTERBACKSn=61% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MICH DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 64 PLAYERS22% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLALABAMA OFFENSEFRONT-7MICHIGAN DEFENSE ALA OFFENSIVE LINEn=2232% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MICH FRONT-7n=40 · 2 ROOMS20% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBALABAMA OFFENSEFRONT-7MICHIGAN DEFENSE ALA RUNNING BACKSn=810% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MICH FRONT-72 ROOMS · 40 PLAYERS21% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.557193%35%LINEBACKERSLB
0.455861%29%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEALABAMA OFFENSESECONDARYMICHIGAN DEFENSE ALA PASS CATCHERSn=2749% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MICH SECONDARYn=24 · 1 ROOM24% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
ALA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MICH
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+2
+8
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
ALA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MICH
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
ALA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MICH
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS66.1%
67.5%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS69.2%
62.7%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE3.9%
0.1%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = ALA, ORANGE = MICH) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE