TUE 14:00 ET|SUN BOWLNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP1|O/U50.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
35
9-4
74
89
83
15%
46
71
24.8
-102
+1.0
HOME
34
6-7
75
73
80
3%
34
82
25.8
-118
-1.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALLOU35—WASH34
CLOSED WASH -1.0TOTAL 50.5LOU COVERED · 69 POINTS · OVER
LOU
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
WASH
LOU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
WASH
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=37
MARKET
TOTAL50.5
SPREADWASH -1.0
IMPLIED — LOU24.8
IMPLIED — WASH25.8
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
LOURECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs8.9-3.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME+13.3
LOUISVILLE won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
WASHRECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs5.9-6.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-0.3
WASHINGTON won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERLOUISVILLEWASHINGTON2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB98%Jack PlummerQB · 97% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB82%Jawhar JordanDRAFTED · 47% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONIsaac GuerendoDRAFTED · 35% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL60%Bryan HudsonOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEric MillerOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONWillie TylerOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION8 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB52%Cam'Ron KellyDB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJarvis Brownlee Jr.DRAFTED · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONStorm DuckDB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL48%Stephen HerronDL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJermayne LolePORTAL · TEXAS · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJeff ClarkPORTAL · ARIZONA STATE · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE39%Jamari ThrashDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJosh LifsonTE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJoey GatewoodTE · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB30%Jaylin AldermanPORTAL · MIAMI · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBTyler Shough · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS TECHDeuce Adams · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
RBDonald Chaney Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · MIAMIDuke Watson · SIGNEE ★4Isaac Brown · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLJonathan Mendoza · PORTAL ★3 · YALEVictor Cutler Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · OHIO STATEPete Nygra · PORTAL ★3 · NORTHERN ILLINOIS2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBTamarion McDonald · PORTAL ★4 · TENNESSEETahveon Nicholson · PORTAL ★3 · ILLINOISDaeh McCullough · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLThor Griffith · PORTAL ★3 · HARVARDXavier Porter · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TECaullin Lacy · PORTAL ★4 · SOUTH ALABAMAJa'Corey Brooks · PORTAL ★4 · ALABAMAMark Redman · PORTAL ★4 · SAN DIEGO STATE5 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · LOUISVILLE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
47.243 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
46.438 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
47.842 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB707073983 OF 8 GRADED
RB5858891965 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE616177472519 OF 25 GRADED
OL626270481713 OF 17 GRADED
DL777759551716 OF 17 GRADED
LB71716784139 OF 13 GRADED
DB535365391916 OF 19 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE74th74
BLUE-CHIP RATIO27%76
RECRUITING CLASS#58 · 2/18 BC57
CLASS RANK TREND-7 · 3 CYCLES36
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+2 · 28 IN / 29 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
WASHJEDD FISCHFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8787
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6363
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
LOUJEFF BROHM2TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8585
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2121
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESLOU OFFENSEWASH OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBLOUISVILLE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEWASHINGTON DEFENSE LOU QUARTERBACKSn=891% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WASH DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 54 PLAYERS43% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLLOUISVILLE OFFENSEFRONT-7WASHINGTON DEFENSE LOU OFFENSIVE LINEn=1752% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WASH FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS36% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBLOUISVILLE OFFENSEFRONT-7WASHINGTON DEFENSE LOU RUNNING BACKSn=681% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WASH FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS34% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554249%5%LINEBACKERSLB
0.452486%11%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TELOUISVILLE OFFENSESECONDARYWASHINGTON DEFENSE LOU PASS CATCHERSn=2553% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WASH SECONDARYn=24 · 1 ROOM49% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
LOU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
WASH
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−11
+18
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
LOU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
WASH
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
LOU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
WASH
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS56.8%
53.5%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS75.9%
74.6%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.9%
3.3%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = LOU, ORANGE = WASH) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE