TUE 15:30 ET|NRG STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP26|O/U62.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
31
8-5
69
75
55
55%
71
65
32.8
-155
-3.0
HOME
44
9-4
94
90
82
20%
86
98
29.8
+130
+3.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALBAY31—LSU44
CLOSED BAY -3.0TOTAL 62.5LSU COVERED · 75 POINTS · OVER
BAY
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
LSU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=37
MARKET
TOTAL62.5
SPREADBAY -3.0
IMPLIED — BAY32.8
IMPLIED — LSU29.8
PACE COLLISION
FAST × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
BAYRECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs8.2-3.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+9.4
BAYLOR won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
LSURECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs7.5-4.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+5.6
LSU won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERBAYLORLSU2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB73%Blake ShapenPORTAL · MISSISSIPPI STATE · 68% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRJ MartinezPORTAL · TEXAS STATE · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL46%TJ FranklinDL · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGabe HallDL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE35%Drake DabneyPORTAL · TCU · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJake RobertsPORTAL · OKLAHOMA · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL23%Clark BarringtonOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB19%Byron VaughnsLB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB9%Bryson JacksonS · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB0%Jordan JenkinsRB · SHARE NOT MEASURED
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBDequan Finn · PORTAL ★4 · TOLEDONate Bennett · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DLSteve Linton · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS TECHJaQues Evans · PORTAL ★3 · WESTERN KENTUCKYElinus Noel III · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS SOUTHERN2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEMichael Trigg · PORTAL ★3 · OLE MISSAshtyn Hawkins · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS STATEJamaal Bell · PORTAL ★3 · NEVADA1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
OLOmar Aigbedion · PORTAL ★3 · MONTANA STATEColton Thomasson · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS A&MKurt Danneker · PORTAL ★3 · OHIO2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBKyland Reed · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBKendrick Simpkins · PORTAL ★3 · WESTERN KENTUCKYLorando Johnson · PORTAL ★3 · ARKANSASCameren Jenkins · PORTAL ★3 · UNLVINTACT
RBJoseph Dodds · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · BAYLOR
CARRIED COMPOSITE
70.794 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
63.979 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
75.697 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB7070868953 OF 5 GRADED
RB6464729965 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE727270711814 OF 18 GRADED
OL777771671711 OF 17 GRADED
DL616166551812 OF 18 GRADED
LB555569551512 OF 15 GRADED
DB464668792520 OF 25 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE69th69
BLUE-CHIP RATIO14%61
RECRUITING CLASS#67 · 1/13 BC50
CLASS RANK TREND-30 · 3 CYCLES0
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+1 · 16 IN / 15 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 5th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
LSUBRIAN KELLY3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9393
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2929
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
BAYDAVE ARANDA5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6464
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9999
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESBAY OFFENSELSU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBBAYLOR OFFENSEFULL DEFENSELSU DEFENSE BAY QUARTERBACKSn=511% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LSU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 49 PLAYERS29% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLBAYLOR OFFENSEFRONT-7LSU DEFENSE BAY OFFENSIVE LINEn=1733% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LSU FRONT-7n=27 · 2 ROOMS29% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBBAYLOR OFFENSEFRONT-7LSU DEFENSE BAY RUNNING BACKSn=61% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LSU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 27 PLAYERS28% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.557461%44%LINEBACKERSLB
0.457186%67%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEBAYLOR OFFENSESECONDARYLSU DEFENSE BAY PASS CATCHERSn=1829% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LSU SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM29% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
BAY
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
LSU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−4
+5
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
BAY
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
LSU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
BAY
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
LSU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS60.0%
44.9%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS60.1%
71.6%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.8%
1.4%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = BAY, ORANGE = LSU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE