TUE 19:30 ET|STATE FARM STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP48|O/U54.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
31
13-3
93
98
94
74%
47
59
33.0
-500
-11.5
HOME
14
12-2
45
74
41
50%
76
30
21.5
+360
+11.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · ESPN BET
FINALPSU31—BOIS14
CLOSED PSU -11.5TOTAL 54.5PSU COVERED · 45 POINTS · UNDER
PSU
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
BOIS
PSU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
BOIS
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=37
MARKET
TOTAL54.5
SPREADPSU -11.5
IMPLIED — PSU33.0
IMPLIED — BOIS21.5
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
PSURECORD MATCHES
11-2ACTUALvs11.0-2.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+17.2
PENN STATE won 11 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 11.0. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
BOISRECORD OVERSTATES
12-1ACTUALvs10.4-2.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+17.2
BOISE STATE won 12 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 10.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERPENN STATEBOISE STATE2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
WR/TE51%Theo JohnsonDRAFTED · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKeAndre Lambert-SmithPORTAL · AUBURN · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDante CephasPORTAL · KANSAS STATE · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB47%Johnny DixonCB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKalen KingDRAFTED · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDaequan HardyDRAFTED · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL46%Hunter NourzadDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONOlumuyiwa FashanuDRAFTED · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCaedan WallaceDRAFTED · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
LB31%Curtis JacobsLB · 30% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL27%Adisa IsaacDRAFTED · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChop RobinsonDRAFTED · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB9%Trey PottsRB · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
WR/TEJulian Fleming · PORTAL ★4 · OHIO STATELuke Reynolds · SIGNEE ★4Josiah Brown · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DBA.J. Harris · PORTAL ★4 · GEORGIAJon Mitchell · SIGNEE ★4Dejuan Lane · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLNolan Rucci · PORTAL ★3 · WISCONSINCooper Cousins · SIGNEE ★4Garrett Sexton · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBAnthony Speca · SIGNEE ★4Kari Jackson · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLLiam Andrews · SIGNEE ★4Mylachi Williams · SIGNEE ★4Max Granville · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBQuinton Martin Jr. · SIGNEE ★4Corey Smith · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
QBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · PENN STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
63.888 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
68.887 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
60.378 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB81819810053 OF 5 GRADED
RB6161949076 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE555581812515 OF 25 GRADED
OL525283842313 OF 23 GRADED
DL797986842518 OF 25 GRADED
LB65658694138 OF 13 GRADED
DB676783662117 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE93rd93
BLUE-CHIP RATIO60%93
RECRUITING CLASS#15 · 16/26 BC89
CLASS RANK TREND-9 · 3 CYCLES32
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 6 IN / 13 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 9th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
BOISSPENCER DANIELSONFIRST SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4444
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7171
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
PSUJAMES FRANKLIN9TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5555
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7777
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESPSU OFFENSEBOIS OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBPENN STATE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEBOISE STATE DEFENSE PSU QUARTERBACKSn=50% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BOIS DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 53 PLAYERS13% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLPENN STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7BOISE STATE DEFENSE PSU OFFENSIVE LINEn=2316% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BOIS FRONT-7n=31 · 2 ROOMS5% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBPENN STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7BOISE STATE DEFENSE PSU RUNNING BACKSn=710% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BOIS FRONT-72 ROOMS · 31 PLAYERS5% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.557593%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEPENN STATE OFFENSESECONDARYBOISE STATE DEFENSE PSU PASS CATCHERSn=2519% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BOIS SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM20% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
PSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BOIS
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−5
−36
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
PSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BOIS
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
PSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BOIS
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS62.0%
65.5%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS59.9%
66.9%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE3.1%
0.9%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = PSU, ORANGE = BOIS) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE