WED 13:00 ET|MERCEDES-BENZ STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP19|O/U52.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
39
13-3
98
91
100
47%
87
87
33.0
-600
-13.5
HOME
31
11-3
79
86
62
62%
58
68
19.5
+440
+13.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALTEX39—ASU31
CLOSED TEX -13.5TOTAL 52.5ASU COVERED · 70 POINTS · OVER
TEX
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
ASU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=37
MARKET
TOTAL52.5
SPREADTEX -13.5
IMPLIED — TEX33.0
IMPLIED — ASU19.5
PACE COLLISION
FAST × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
TEXRECORD MATCHES
11-2ACTUALvs11.9-1.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+21.2
TEXAS won 11 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 11.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ASURECORD OVERSTATES
11-2ACTUALvs9.6-3.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD6-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+11.8
ARIZONA STATE won 11 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 9.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERTEXASARIZONA STATE2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
WR/TE78%Ja'Tavion SandersDRAFTED · 26% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONXavier WorthyDRAFTED · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAdonai MitchellDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL55%T'Vondre SweatDRAFTED · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONByron Murphy IIDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTrill CarterPORTAL · AUBURN · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB49%Jonathon BrooksDRAFTED · 40% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKeilan RobinsonDRAFTED · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB46%Terrance BrooksPORTAL · ILLINOIS · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJerrin ThompsonPORTAL · AUBURN · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRyan WattsDRAFTED · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB33%Jaylan FordDRAFTED · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJett BushLB · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL17%Christian JonesDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
QB14%Maalik MurphyPORTAL · DUKE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
WR/TEIsaiah Bond · PORTAL ★5 · ALABAMAAmari Niblack · PORTAL ★4 · ALABAMAMatthew Golden · PORTAL ★4 · HOUSTON6 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLTrey Moore · PORTAL ★4 · UTSAColin Simmons · SIGNEE ★5Zina Umeozulu · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
RBJerrick Gibson · SIGNEE ★4Christian Clark · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
DBAndrew Mukuba · PORTAL ★4 · CLEMSONKobe Black · SIGNEE ★5Xavier Filsaime · SIGNEE ★53 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBTy'Anthony Smith · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
OLBrandon Baker · SIGNEE ★5Daniel Cruz · SIGNEE ★4Nate Kibble · SIGNEE ★4REFILLED
QBTrey Owens · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · TEXAS
CARRIED COMPOSITE
60.678 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
67.784 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
55.967 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB55551009953 OF 5 GRADED
RB7171948597 OF 9 GRADED
WR/TE737387432513 OF 25 GRADED
OL696989982013 OF 20 GRADED
DL808087491615 OF 16 GRADED
LB888890781311 OF 13 GRADED
DB747493812316 OF 23 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE98th98
BLUE-CHIP RATIO73%97
RECRUITING CLASS#6 · 19/23 BC96
CLASS RANK TREND-1 · 3 CYCLES48
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+3 · 10 IN / 25 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 4th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
ASUKENNY DILLINGHAM2TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5050
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9191
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
TEXSTEVE SARKISIAN4TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7676
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4242
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESTEX OFFENSEASU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBTEXAS OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEARIZONA STATE DEFENSE TEX QUARTERBACKSn=51% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ASU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 52 PLAYERS59% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLTEXAS OFFENSEFRONT-7ARIZONA STATE DEFENSE TEX OFFENSIVE LINEn=202% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ASU FRONT-7n=31 · 2 ROOMS54% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBTEXAS OFFENSEFRONT-7ARIZONA STATE DEFENSE TEX RUNNING BACKSn=915% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ASU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 31 PLAYERS56% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555057%19%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TETEXAS OFFENSESECONDARYARIZONA STATE DEFENSE TEX PASS CATCHERSn=2557% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ASU SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM63% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
TEX
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ASU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+3
+4
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
TEX
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ASU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
TEX
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ASU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS56.7%
66.2%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS68.1%
55.4%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE3.2%
0.8%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = TEX, ORANGE = ASU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE