THU 16:00 ET|CAESARS SUPERDOMENONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP6|O/U46.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
23
14-2
93
87
97
37%
22
49
24.0
-115
-1.5
HOME
10
11-3
99
95
90
60%
65
92
22.5
-105
+1.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · ESPN BET
FINALND23—UGA10
CLOSED ND -1.5TOTAL 46.5ND COVERED · 33 POINTS · UNDER
ND
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
UGA
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=37
MARKET
TOTAL46.5
SPREADND -1.5
IMPLIED — ND24.0
IMPLIED — UGA22.5
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
NDRECORD MATCHES
11-1ACTUALvs11.1-0.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+26.3
NOTRE DAME won 11 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 11.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
UGARECORD OVERSTATES
11-2ACTUALvs9.9-3.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+12.8
GEORGIA won 11 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 9.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERNOTRE DAMEGEORGIA2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB87%Sam HartmanQB · 87% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
LB65%JD BertrandDRAFTED · 34% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarist LiufauDRAFTED · 31% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB54%DJ BrownS · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCam HartDRAFTED · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONThomas HarperS · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB51%Audric EstimeDRAFTED · 50% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL49%Joe AltDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBlake FisherDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZeke CorrellPORTAL · NC STATE · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE44%Holden StaesPORTAL · TENNESSEE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRico Flores Jr.PORTAL · UCLA · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTobias MerriweatherPORTAL · CALIFORNIA · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL26%Javontae Jean-BaptisteDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNaNa Osafo-MensahPORTAL · TCU · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBRiley Leonard · PORTAL ★4 · DUKECJ Carr · SIGNEE ★4REFILLED
LBKyngstonn Viliamu-Asa · SIGNEE ★4Bodie Kahoun · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBJordan Clark · PORTAL ★3 · ARIZONA STATERod Heard II · PORTAL ★3 · NORTHWESTERNTae Johnson · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBKedren Young · SIGNEE ★4Aneyas Williams · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
OLGuerby Lambert · SIGNEE ★4Anthonie Knapp · SIGNEE ★4Styles Prescod · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
WR/TEKris Mitchell · PORTAL ★4 · FLORIDA INTERNATIONALCam Williams · SIGNEE ★4Micah Gilbert · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLRJ Oben · PORTAL ★4 · DUKEBryce Young · SIGNEE ★4Loghan Thomas · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · NOTRE DAME
CARRIED COMPOSITE
56.067 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
60.573 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
53.358 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB858596953 OF 5 GRADED
RB8080937886 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE575785672819 OF 28 GRADED
OL656593781915 OF 19 GRADED
DL636388781917 OF 19 GRADED
LB56569385119 OF 11 GRADED
DB696988602014 OF 20 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE93rd93
BLUE-CHIP RATIO67%97
RECRUITING CLASS#9 · 15/23 BC94
CLASS RANK TREND-2 · 3 CYCLES46
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 9 IN / 18 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
UGAKIRBY SMART9TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8080
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2323
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
NDMARCUS FREEMAN3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4747
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8181
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESND OFFENSEUGA OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBNOTRE DAME OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEGEORGIA DEFENSE ND QUARTERBACKSn=591% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UGA DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 51 PLAYERS12% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLNOTRE DAME OFFENSEFRONT-7GEORGIA DEFENSE ND OFFENSIVE LINEn=1922% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UGA FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS8% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBNOTRE DAME OFFENSEFRONT-7GEORGIA DEFENSE ND RUNNING BACKSn=822% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UGA FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS7% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.557091%88%LINEBACKERSLB
0.457695%79%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TENOTRE DAME OFFENSESECONDARYGEORGIA DEFENSE ND PASS CATCHERSn=2833% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UGA SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM15% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
ND
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UGA
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−2
+3
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
ND
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UGA
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
ND
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UGA
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS60.3%
50.1%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS57.6%
72.0%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE3.1%
0.7%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = ND, ORANGE = UGA) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE