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HOME›SLATE›2024›WEEK 1›UNT @ TXST›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
PSU @ WVU77
MIA @ FLA77
TCU @ STAN70
UNLV @ HOU70
WYO @ ASU70
USC @ LSU70
ND @ TA&M69
CLEM @ UGA67
M-OH @ NU67
CSU @ TEX66
ODU @ SC65
FIU @ IU64
AKR @ OSU64
UNC @ MINN63
WKU @ ALA63
SHSU @ RICE61
TEM @ OU59
UNT @ USA59
GAST @ GT59
UCLA @ HAW58
FRES @ MICH57
USM @ UK56
BC @ FSU55
UTEP @ NEB54
KENT @ PITT53
BOIS @ GASO52
JMU @ CLT52
UNM @ ARIZ52
CCU @ JXST51
OHIO @ SYR50
FAU @ MSU49
WMU @ WIS47
EMU @ MASS44
VT @ VAN43
NEV @ TROY41
KENN @ UTSA39
CONN @ MD38
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
NORTH TEXAS
TEXAS STATE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2024
FRI 16:00 ET|GERALD J. FORD STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP15|O/U67.5COLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
100FPI
UNTAACNORTH TEXAS
28
6-7
43
57
32
20%
96
35
26.0
+470
+15.5
HOME
—AP
61FPI
TXSTPACTEXAS STATE
30
8-5
28
55
45
39%
93
17
41.5
-650
-15.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALUNT28—TXST30
CLOSED TXST -15.5TOTAL 67.5UNT COVERED · 58 POINTS · UNDER
UNT
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
TXST
28
POINTS
30
491
TOTAL YARDS
508
393 (26-41)
PASSING
307 (26-35)
98 (25)
RUSHING
201 (44)
22
FIRST DOWNS
26
7-12
THIRD DOWN
7-16
0-2
FOURTH DOWN
2-2
22:13
TIME OF POSS.
37:47
9-90
PENALTIES
9-94
3
TURNOVERS
2
2
SACKS
3
2
QB HURRIES
3
UNT
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
TXST
0.307
SEASON 0.292
EPA / PLAY
0.316
SEASON 0.330
41.3%
SEASON 42.7%
SUCCESS RATE
47.4%
SEASON 49.0%
17.5%
SEASON 17.6%
EXPLOSIVE RATE
14.1%
SEASON 18.0%
7.76
SEASON 6.76
YARDS / PLAY
6.71
SEASON 6.72
0.316
SEASON 0.236
EPA ALLOWED
0.307
SEASON 0.183
47.4%
SEASON 44.0%
SUCCESS ALLOWED
41.3%
SEASON 37.6%
14.1%
SEASON 15.4%
EXPLOSIVE ALLOWED
17.5%
SEASON 16.7%
23.8%
SEASON 14.2%
STUFF RATE
28.6%
SEASON 21.6%
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=37
MARKET
TOTAL67.5
SPREADTXST -15.5
IMPLIED — UNT26.0
IMPLIED — TXST41.5
PACE COLLISION
FAST × FAST
UNT PACE25.2s
96
TXST PACE25.5s
93
SHARED PACE25.4s
95
PLAY VOLUME142
95
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
UNT97CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
100
PROE
93
TEMPO
96
EXPLOSIVE100p
100
PROE93p
93
TEMPO96p
96
TXST60CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
28
PROE
60
TEMPO
93
EXPLOSIVE28p
28
PROE60p
60
TEMPO93p
93
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
UNTRECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs5.9-6.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-0.5
NORTH TEXAS won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TXSTRECORD UNDERSTATES
7-5ACTUALvs8.8-3.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME+12.8
TEXAS STATE won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERNORTH TEXASTEXAS STATE2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Chandler RogersPORTAL · CALIFORNIA · 91% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONStone EarlePORTAL · MARSHALL · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
RB97%Ayo AdeyiPORTAL · JAMES MADISON · 43% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONOscar Adaway IIIPORTAL · SOUTH CAROLINA · 41% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONIsaiah JohnsonPORTAL · ABILENE CHRISTIAN · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE69%Ja'Mori MaclinPORTAL · KENTUCKY · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRoderic BurnsWR · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTrey ClevelandPORTAL · ABILENE CHRISTIAN · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL58%Ethan MinerPORTAL · MISSISSIPPI STATE · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKaci MorekaOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONFebechi NwaiwuPORTAL · OKLAHOMA · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL57%Mazin RichardsDL · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONVic AlobwedePORTAL · MEMPHIS · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarcus MooreDT · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB46%Logan WilsonPORTAL · CINCINNATI · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONPhil HillS · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJohn DavisCB · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB28%Carson KroppLB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKevin WoodLB · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBChandler Morris · PORTAL ★3 · TCUCash McCollum · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
RBZach Evans · PORTAL ★3 · MINNESOTAJuwaun Price · PORTAL ★3 · SYRACUSEKiefer Sibley · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
WR/TEOscar Hammond · PORTAL ★3 · CENTRAL OKLAHOMADT Sheffield · PORTAL ★3 · WASHINGTON STATELuke Carter · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLLandon Peterson · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS TECHTyler Mercer · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLJaedon Langley · SIGNEE ★3Zhaiylen Scott · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBJayden Hill · PORTAL ★3 · OHIO DOMINICANIsheem Young · PORTAL ★3 · OLE MISSBJ Allen Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS5 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · NORTH TEXAS
CARRIED COMPOSITE
41.824 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
28.69 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
50.052 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB818180062 OF 6 GRADED
RB484838797 OF 9 GRADED
WR/TE646450362314 OF 23 GRADED
OL484850411910 OF 19 GRADED
DL383850381710 OF 17 GRADED
LB333361781611 OF 16 GRADED
DB343456642419 OF 24 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE43rd43
BLUE-CHIP RATIO8%42
RECRUITING CLASS#70 · 0/30 BC48
CLASS RANK TREND+48 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 25 IN / 36 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
TXSTG.J. KINNE2TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4242
PACE
9393
PASS RATE
2424
EXPLOSIVENESS
6060
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8888
HAVOC
8585
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
UNTERIC MORRIS2TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9090
PACE
9191
PASS RATE
8484
EXPLOSIVENESS
9999
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9898
HAVOC
22
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESUNT OFFENSETXST OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBNORTH TEXAS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
8OF 132
TAL
80
PERF
81
RET
0
NATIONAL
61OF 134
RET
48
FULL DEFENSETEXAS STATE DEFENSE
UNT QUARTERBACKSn=6100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CHANDLER MORRISQBPORTAL · TCU
614TH YR8778★3+18
DREW MESTEMAKERQBTRUE FR
522ND YR32100★5+40
GRANT TISDALEQBTRUE FR
484TH YR—86★3—
CASH MCCOLLUMQBTRUE FR
351ST YR——★3—
CARSON WOODSQBTRUE FR
302ND YR——UNR—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TXST DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 53 PLAYERS58% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
7559%11%
LINEBACKERSLB
5123%0%
SECONDARYDB
6239%4%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLNORTH TEXAS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
86OF 134
TAL
50
PERF
48
RET
41
DL
13OF 134
DL RET
59
LB
63OF 134
LB RET
23
FRONT-7TEXAS STATE DEFENSE
UNT OFFENSIVE LINEn=1959% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JETT DUNCANOLRET
514TH YR9842★3-22
GABE BLAIROLRET
614TH YR8950★3+30
LANDON PETERSONOLPORTAL · TEXAS TECH
594TH YR7645★3+4
MA'KYI LEEOLPORTAL · MISSOURI
534TH YR4317★3-13
TYLER MERCEROLTRUE FR
502ND YR5445★3+47
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TXST FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS55% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DOMINIQUE RATCLIFFDLRET
724TH YR7664★3+11
STEVEN PARKEREDGEPORTAL · INCARNATE WORD
604TH YR5478★3+17
TAVIAN COLEMANDTRET
604TH YR8964★3-16
KALIL ALEXANDERDERET
534TH YR63—★3+52
JO'LAISON LANDRYDLRET
523RD YR4867★3+50
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBNORTH TEXAS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
84OF 134
TAL
38
PERF
48
RET
7
DL
13OF 134
DL RET
59
LB
63OF 134
LB RET
23
FRONT-7TEXAS STATE DEFENSE
UNT RUNNING BACKSn=993% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
SHANE PORTERRBTRUE FR
674TH YR5917★3+30
DAMASHJA HARRISRBTRUE FR
564TH YR2945★3+34
IKAIKA RAGSDALERBRET
554TH YR7344★3+3
MAKENZIE MCGILL IIRBRET
502ND YR5445★3+25
ZACH EVANSRBPORTAL · MINNESOTA
502ND YR5075★3-20
SHOW ALL 9
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TXST FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS57% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.557559%11%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.455123%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TENORTH TEXAS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
20OF 133
TAL
50
PERF
64
RET
36
DB
25OF 134
DB RET
39
SECONDARYTEXAS STATE DEFENSE
UNT PASS CATCHERSn=2364% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DT SHEFFIELDWRPORTAL · WASHINGTON STATE
664TH YR7789★3+28
DAMON WARD JR.WRRET
644TH YR96—UNR+17
OSCAR HAMMONDTEPORTAL · CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
644TH YR4317★3+56
MILES COLEMANWRTRUE FR
553RD YR6064★3+20
BLAIR CONWRIGHTWRRET
534TH YR8865★3+21
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TXST SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM61% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JORDAN POLKCBTRUE FR
734TH YR71—UNR+31
BOBBY CROSBYSRET
604TH YR53—★3+36
TREZ MOOREDBPORTAL · UTEP
584TH YR5917★3-1
RYAN NOLANDBTRUE FR
564TH YR6045★2+23
KAMERON PEARSONCBTRUE FR
523RD YR30—UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
UNT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TXST
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
49.1
59.2
— OFFENSE
63.2
55.5
— DEFENSE
35.0
62.9
SP+ OVERALL
-4.5
5.4
FPI
-7.3
2.3
ELO
1367
1640
TALENT
595
540
PRODUCTION
34
65
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+7
−39
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.08
0.08
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
UNT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TXST
OFF EFFICIENCY
40
89
DEF EFFICIENCY
27
88
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
100
27
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
36
13
FINISHING DRIVES
38
75
FIELD POSITION
66
26
TURNOVER MARGIN
30
26
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
UNT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TXST
PASS RATE
60.0%
46.6%
PROE
+10.7
+1.5
PACE
25.2s
25.5s
4TH-DOWN GO RATE
41%
31%
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
45.6%
58.5%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
71.3%
59.4%
PLAYS / GAME
71.4
70.5
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
1.4%
1.3%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = UNT, ORANGE = TXST) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE