FRI 14:30 ET|RAYMOND JAMES STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP10|O/U56.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
7
8-5
58
70
30
12%
63
35
25.3
+185
+6.0
HOME
31
8-5
68
89
43
95%
29
87
31.3
-225
-6.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2025CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALMEM7—NCSU31
CLOSED NCSU -6.0TOTAL 56.5NCSU COVERED · 38 POINTS · UNDER
MEM
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
NCSU
MEM
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
NCSU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=44
MARKET
TOTAL56.5
SPREADNCSU -6.0
IMPLIED — MEM25.3
IMPLIED — NCSU31.3
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
MEMRECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs8.8-3.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+12.1
MEMPHIS won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
NCSURECORD MATCHES
7-5ACTUALvs6.3-5.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+1.3
NC STATE won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERMEMPHISNC STATE2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Seth HeniganQB · 100% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB99%Chandler MartinLB · 33% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMatt HudsonLB · 30% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONElijah HerringPORTAL · FLORIDA STATE · 28% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB95%AJ WattsDB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGreg RubinDB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDavion RossDB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE93%Anthony LandphereTE · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKoby DrakeWR · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRoc TaylorWR · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL70%Javon DenisDL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONPatrick Lucas Jr.DL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONVic AlobwedeDL · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL70%Jonah GambillOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONXavier HillPORTAL · COLORADO · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTrent HollerOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB39%Brandon ThomasRB · 39% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBBrendon Lewis · PORTAL ★3 · NEVADAAJ Hill · SIGNEE ★4REFILLED
LBDrue Watts · PORTAL ★3 · NEVADASam Brumfield · PORTAL ★3 · VIRGINIA TECHKenyon Rivera · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
DBChauncey Logan Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · JAMES MADISONBeni Mwamba · PORTAL ★3 · CHATTANOOGAMyles Pollard · PORTAL ★3 · MICHIGAN2 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
WR/TECortez Braham Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · NEVADAXavier Johnson · SIGNEE ★3Rahim Hutchins Jr. · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
DLIsaiah Green · PORTAL ★3 · WESTERN MICHIGANMarcus Burris Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · INDIANAThomarius Walker · PORTAL ★3 · KENNESAW STATE4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLAustin Gentle · PORTAL ★3 · HARVARDJacob Norcross · PORTAL ★3 · KENNESAW STATEJosiah Clemons · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · MEMPHIS
CARRIED COMPOSITE
11.11 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
11.33 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
11.03 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB595965253 OF 5 GRADED
RB4747597985 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE393955492216 OF 22 GRADED
OL313143362010 OF 20 GRADED
DL515137372012 OF 20 GRADED
LB5959517158 OF 15 GRADED
DB44445902514 OF 25 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE58th58
BLUE-CHIP RATIO16%64
RECRUITING CLASS#60 · 1/19 BC56
CLASS RANK TREND0 · 3 CYCLES50
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 36 IN / 32 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 6th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
NCSUDAVE DOEREN10TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6767
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1616
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
MEMRYAN SILVERFIELD6TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8383
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6262
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESMEM OFFENSENCSU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBMEMPHIS OFFENSEFULL DEFENSENC STATE DEFENSE MEM QUARTERBACKSn=598% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NCSU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 62 PLAYERS62% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLMEMPHIS OFFENSEFRONT-7NC STATE DEFENSE MEM OFFENSIVE LINEn=2064% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NCSU FRONT-7n=40 · 2 ROOMS52% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBMEMPHIS OFFENSEFRONT-7NC STATE DEFENSE MEM RUNNING BACKSn=821% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NCSU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 40 PLAYERS52% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554948%10%LINEBACKERSLB
0.455049%10%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEMEMPHIS OFFENSESECONDARYNC STATE DEFENSE MEM PASS CATCHERSn=2251% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NCSU SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM71% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
MEM
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NCSU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−15
+7
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
MEM
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NCSU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
MEM
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NCSU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS60.0%
58.1%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS71.9%
73.9%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.8%
2.3%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = MEM, ORANGE = NCSU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2025, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE