SAT 19:30 ET|AUTZEN STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP89|O/U47.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
34
12-2
8
28
96
78%
75
24
13.5
+1100
+20.5
HOME
51
13-2
97
90
94
19%
29
71
34.0
-2100
-20.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2025CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALJMU34—ORE51
CLOSED ORE -20.5TOTAL 47.5JMU COVERED · 85 POINTS · OVER
JMU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
ORE
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=44
MARKET
TOTAL47.5
SPREADORE -20.5
IMPLIED — JMU13.5
IMPLIED — ORE34.0
PACE COLLISION
FAST × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
JMURECORD MATCHES
12-1ACTUALvs11.5-1.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+21.5
JAMES MADISON won 12 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 11.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ORERECORD MATCHES
11-1ACTUALvs10.8-1.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+23.3
OREGON won 11 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 10.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERJAMES MADISONOREGON2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
WR/TE81%Taylor ThompsonTE · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONOmarion DollisonWR · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCam RossPORTAL · VIRGINIA · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL63%Khairi MannsDL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEric O'NeillPORTAL · RUTGERS · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChris FitzgeraldDL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB60%Chris ShearinS · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTerrence SpenceCB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJordan TaylorCB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB55%Jacob DobbsLB · 26% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTaurus JonesLB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRaymond ScottLB · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL53%Tanner MorrisOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCole PottsOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJesse RamilPORTAL · CHARLOTTE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB14%Tyler PurdyRB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB6%Billy AtkinsPORTAL · SOUTH CAROLINA STATE · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
WR/TEIsaiah Alston · PORTAL ★3 · IOWA STATEJaylan Sanchez · PORTAL ★3 · VILLANOVAArrion Concepcion · PORTAL ★3 · KANSAS STATE4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLTurner Schmidt · PORTAL ★3 · ROBERT MORRISLacota Dippre · PORTAL ★3 · CHARLOTTERoy'Marr Thomas · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBElijah Culp · PORTAL ★3 · CHARLOTTECurtis Harris-Lopez · PORTAL ★3 · HOLY CROSSSeth Gathers · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
LBJayden Studio · PORTAL ★3 · KENT STATEPARTIAL
OLJames Pogorelc · PORTAL ★3 · DUKEZach Greenberg · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH CAROLINAJD Dean · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
RBJackson McCarter · SIGNEE ★3Tre Leonard · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
QBMatthew Sluka · PORTAL ★3 · UNLVCamden Coleman · PORTAL ★3 · RICHMONDINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · JAMES MADISON
CARRIED COMPOSITE
38.345 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
36.137 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
39.647 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB5353659653 OF 5 GRADED
RB5757638687 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE545455272014 OF 20 GRADED
OL515149522015 OF 20 GRADED
DL727257631812 OF 18 GRADED
LB67674573106 OF 10 GRADED
DB626259662514 OF 25 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE8th8
BLUE-CHIP RATIO6%31
RECRUITING CLASS#108 · 0/20 BC20
CLASS RANK TREND+41 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 29 IN / 26 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
OREDAN LANNING4TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7979
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8989
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
JMUBOB CHESNEY2TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3131
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5454
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESJMU OFFENSEORE OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBJAMES MADISON OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEOREGON DEFENSE JMU QUARTERBACKSn=54% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ORE DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 47 PLAYERS46% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
5875%100%THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLJAMES MADISON OFFENSEFRONT-7OREGON DEFENSE JMU OFFENSIVE LINEn=2048% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ORE FRONT-7n=26 · 2 ROOMS17% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBJAMES MADISON OFFENSEFRONT-7OREGON DEFENSE JMU RUNNING BACKSn=814% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ORE FRONT-72 ROOMS · 26 PLAYERS16% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555875%100%LINEBACKERSLB
0.455495%57%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEJAMES MADISON OFFENSESECONDARYOREGON DEFENSE JMU PASS CATCHERSn=2073% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ORE SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM70% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
JMU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ORE
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−74
−1
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
JMU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ORE
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
JMU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ORE
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS68.3%
61.7%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS54.9%
62.5%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE2.8%
3.2%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = JMU, ORANGE = ORE) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2025, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE