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HOME›SLATE›2025›WEEK 1›UNLV @ OHIO›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
TEX @ OSU79
LSU @ CLEM72
UTSA @ TA&M69
NEB @ CIN67
ND @ MIA67
AUB @ BAY66
ODU @ IU66
TOL @ UK65
GAST @ MISS64
TCU @ UNC64
OHIO @ RUTG63
CSU @ WASH63
UTAH @ UCLA63
MSST @ USM62
NEV @ PSU62
MRSH @ UGA62
GT @ COLO61
JXST @ UCF60
MOST @ USC60
UNLV @ SHSU59
UTEP @ USU59
HAW @ ARIZ59
ALA @ FSU58
BALL @ PUR57
WYO @ AKR56
NU @ TULN56
UNM @ MICH56
EMU @ TXST56
BOIS @ USF55
CCU @ UVA55
ECU @ NCSU54
SYR @ TENN54
TEM @ MASS54
CAL @ ORST53
KENN @ WAKE52
VT @ SC52
GASO @ FRES51
M-OH @ WIS48
WMU @ MSU46
BUF @ MINN43
FAU @ MD42
APP @ CLT41
CMU @ SJSU36
RICE @ UL34
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
UNLV
OHIO
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025
TUE 21:00 ET|FORD CENTER AT THE STARNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP55|O/U64.5COLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
69FPI
UNLVMWCUNLV
10
10-4
64
81
21
15%
44
24
35.5
-250
-6.5
HOME
—AP
74FPI
OHIOMACOHIO
17
9-4
9
53
12
65%
58
7
29.0
+205
+6.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2025CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALUNLV10—OHIO17
CLOSED UNLV -6.5TOTAL 64.5OHIO COVERED · 27 POINTS · UNDER
UNLV
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
OHIO
10
POINTS
17
281
TOTAL YARDS
350
184 (19-30)
PASSING
143 (11-15)
97 (29)
RUSHING
207 (43)
18
FIRST DOWNS
19
4-11
THIRD DOWN
4-11
1-2
FOURTH DOWN
1-1
28:00
TIME OF POSS.
32:00
5-40
PENALTIES
5-50
2
TURNOVERS
3
1
SACKS
2
1
QB HURRIES
2
UNLV
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
OHIO
0.081
SEASON 0.362
EPA / PLAY
0.184
SEASON 0.268
41.4%
SEASON 47.4%
SUCCESS RATE
45.6%
SEASON 45.5%
13.8%
SEASON 19.1%
EXPLOSIVE RATE
14.0%
SEASON 17.4%
5.00
SEASON 7.09
YARDS / PLAY
6.18
SEASON 6.30
0.184
SEASON 0.250
EPA ALLOWED
0.081
SEASON 0.206
45.6%
SEASON 44.0%
SUCCESS ALLOWED
41.4%
SEASON 42.3%
14.0%
SEASON 18.1%
EXPLOSIVE ALLOWED
13.8%
SEASON 14.9%
12.2%
SEASON 15.9%
STUFF RATE
25.9%
SEASON 16.8%
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=44
MARKET
TOTAL64.5
SPREADUNLV -6.5
IMPLIED — UNLV35.5
IMPLIED — OHIO29.0
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × MIDDLING
UNLV PACE28.0s
44
OHIO PACE27.2s
58
SHARED PACE27.6s
51
PLAY VOLUME131
51
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
UNLV59CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
90
PROE
44
TEMPO
44
EXPLOSIVE90p
90
PROE44p
44
TEMPO44p
44
OHIO37CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
41
PROE
13
TEMPO
58
EXPLOSIVE41p
41
PROE13p
13
TEMPO58p
58
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
UNLVRECORD OVERSTATES
10-3ACTUALvs8.2-4.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+7.1
UNLV won 10 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 8.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
OHIORECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs7.6-4.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+5.8
OHIO won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERUNLVOHIO2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB98%Hajj-Malik WilliamsQB · 84% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMatthew SlukaPORTAL · JAMES MADISON · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DB97%Johnathan BaldwinDB · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJett EladPORTAL · RUTGERS · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCameron OliverDB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION10 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL92%Jack HaszOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTiger ShanksOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAnton AmbuehlOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL89%Antonio Doyle Jr.DE · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAlexander WhitmoreDL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONFisher CamacPORTAL · VIRGINIA · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE86%Kaleo BallungayTE · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRicky White IIIDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChristian MoorePORTAL · PURDUE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB77%Jackson WoodardLB · 46% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMani PowellPORTAL · PURDUE · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCharles CorreaPORTAL · PURDUE · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB50%Kylin JamesRB · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGreg BurrellPORTAL · TEXAS STATE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDevin GreenRB · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBAnthony Colandrea · PORTAL ★3 · VIRGINIAAlex Orji · PORTAL ★3 · MICHIGANREFILLED
DBDenver Harris · PORTAL ★3 · UTSALaterrance Welch · PORTAL ★3 · ARIZONA STATEAamaris Brown · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH FLORIDA1 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
OLNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
DLElias Rudolph · PORTAL ★3 · MIAMITunmise Adeleye · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS STATEJordan Covington · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TEVar'Keyes Gumms · PORTAL ★3 · ARKANSASKoy Moore · PORTAL ★3 · WESTERN KENTUCKYTaeshaun Lyons · PORTAL ★3 · UTAH5 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBJustin Flowe · PORTAL ★3 · ARIZONAIsaiah Patterson · PORTAL ★3 · UCLAAlexander Green · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
RBJaylon Glover · PORTAL ★3 · UTAHEmeka Megwa · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMAKamran Williams · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · UNLV
CARRIED COMPOSITE
11.52 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
14.47 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
9.92 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB686877153 OF 5 GRADED
RB6464274876 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE424253292014 OF 20 GRADED
OL484821371710 OF 17 GRADED
DL393946371812 OF 18 GRADED
LB35353445139 OF 13 GRADED
DB47474692214 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE64th64
BLUE-CHIP RATIO22%74
RECRUITING CLASS#95 · 0/13 BC29
CLASS RANK TREND+41 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+2 · 40 IN / 43 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
OHIOBRIAN SMITHFIRST SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
77
PACE
6767
PASS RATE
44
EXPLOSIVENESS
2929
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9292
HAVOC
3232
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
UNLVDAN MULLENFIRST SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3636
PACE
7272
PASS RATE
4343
EXPLOSIVENESS
5454
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7979
HAVOC
3333
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESUNLV OFFENSEOHIO OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBUNLV OFFENSE
NATIONAL
30OF 136
TAL
77
PERF
68
RET
1
NATIONAL
120OF 136
RET
65
FULL DEFENSEOHIO DEFENSE
UNLV QUARTERBACKSn=599% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ANTHONY COLANDREAQBPORTAL · VIRGINIA
764TH YR9678★3+17
ALEX ORJIQBPORTAL · MICHIGAN
484TH YR3845★3-34
CAMERON FRIELQBRET
464TH YR3948★3+14
GAEL OCHOAQBRET
382ND YR—41★3—
SEBASTIAN CIRCOQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—37★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
OHIO DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 51 PLAYERS32% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
3820%6%
LINEBACKERSLB
4149%0%
SECONDARYDB
2997%0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLUNLV OFFENSE
NATIONAL
92OF 136
TAL
21
PERF
48
RET
37
DL
113OF 136
DL RET
20
LB
100OF 136
LB RET
49
FRONT-7OHIO DEFENSE
UNLV OFFENSIVE LINEn=1763% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ALANI MAKIHELEOLPORTAL · UCLA
554TH YR8829★3+47
NICK SCALISEOLRET
524TH YR2713★2—
AMARE TAASEOLRET
522ND YR3033★3—
ED HAYNESOLRET
522ND YR—46★3—
TOBY MOOREOLRET
521ST YR—43★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
OHIO FRONT-7n=27 · 2 ROOMS68% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PIUS ODJUGODLPORTAL · CENTRAL MICHIGAN
674TH YR669★3+12
CAMERON HOLLOBAUGHLBPORTAL · WALSH
564TH YR5328★3+18
CHARLIE CHRISTOPHERLBTRUE FR
562ND YR5721★3+19
MICHAEL MOLNARLBRET
554TH YR59—UNR-19
NATHAN HALEDTRET
544TH YR4714★2+25
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBUNLV OFFENSE
NATIONAL
25OF 136
TAL
27
PERF
64
RET
48
DL
113OF 136
DL RET
20
LB
100OF 136
LB RET
49
FRONT-7OHIO DEFENSE
UNLV RUNNING BACKSn=752% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JAI'DEN THOMASRBRET
834TH YR95—UNR+22
JAYLON GLOVERRBPORTAL · UTAH
494TH YR8945★3-13
KEYVONE LEERBPORTAL · MISSISSIPPI STATE
494TH YR7417★3-17
DARRIEN JONESRBRET
413RD YR617★3—
KAMRAN WILLIAMSRBTRUE FR
381ST YR283★3—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
OHIO FRONT-72 ROOMS · 27 PLAYERS67% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.553820%6%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.454149%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEUNLV OFFENSE
NATIONAL
105OF 136
TAL
53
PERF
42
RET
29
DB
134OF 136
DB RET
97
SECONDARYOHIO DEFENSE
UNLV PASS CATCHERSn=2071% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JADEN BRADLEYWRRET
704TH YR9050★3+25
VAR'KEYES GUMMSTEPORTAL · ARKANSAS
643RD YR7545★3+38
NICK ELKSNISTEPORTAL · SOUTH CAROLINA
614TH YR5683★3-22
TAESHAUN LYONSWRPORTAL · UTAH
563RD YR4945★3+27
TROY OMEIREWRPORTAL · ARIZONA STATE
514TH YR8778★3+6
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
OHIO SECONDARYn=24 · 1 ROOM3% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JALEN THOMESONSRET
633RD YR8215★2+4
MICHAEL MACK IICBRET
604TH YR88—UNR-33
RONALD JACKSON JR.CBPORTAL · OLD DOMINION
524TH YR2517★3—
JT HASKINSSRET
523RD YR2754★3—
PIERRE KEMENI JR.DBPORTAL · NEW MEXICO
504TH YR2227★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
UNLV
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
OHIO
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
46.4
43.5
— OFFENSE
52.4
51.2
— DEFENSE
40.4
35.7
SP+ OVERALL
4.3
-4.0
FPI
0.1
-2.4
ELO
1622
1584
TALENT
701
470
PRODUCTION
59
39
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+4
−32
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.22
0.02
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
UNLV
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
OHIO
OFF EFFICIENCY
83
71
DEF EFFICIENCY
24
55
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
90
41
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
21
39
FINISHING DRIVES
81
47
FIELD POSITION
69
36
TURNOVER MARGIN
58
64
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
UNLV
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
OHIO
PASS RATE
48.5%
39.1%
PROE
+0.4
−8.3
PACE
28.0s
27.2s
4TH-DOWN GO RATE
25%
36%
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
57.0%
65.1%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
61.3%
49.8%
PLAYS / GAME
64.4
66.1
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
1.6%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = UNLV, ORANGE = OHIO) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2025, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE