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HOME›SLATE›2025›WEEK 1›FIU @ UTSA›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
TEX @ OSU79
LSU @ CLEM72
UTSA @ TA&M69
NEB @ CIN67
ND @ MIA67
AUB @ BAY66
ODU @ IU66
TOL @ UK65
GAST @ MISS64
TCU @ UNC64
OHIO @ RUTG63
CSU @ WASH63
UTAH @ UCLA63
MSST @ USM62
NEV @ PSU62
MRSH @ UGA62
GT @ COLO61
JXST @ UCF60
MOST @ USC60
UNLV @ SHSU59
UTEP @ USU59
HAW @ ARIZ59
ALA @ FSU58
BALL @ PUR57
WYO @ AKR56
NU @ TULN56
UNM @ MICH56
EMU @ TXST56
BOIS @ USF55
CCU @ UVA55
ECU @ NCSU54
SYR @ TENN54
TEM @ MASS54
CAL @ ORST53
KENN @ WAKE52
VT @ SC52
GASO @ FRES51
M-OH @ WIS48
WMU @ MSU46
BUF @ MINN43
FAU @ MD42
APP @ CLT41
CMU @ SJSU36
RICE @ UL34
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
UTSA
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025
FRI 20:00 ET|GERALD J. FORD STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP24|O/U62.5COLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
106FPI
FIUCUSAFLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
20
7-6
29
13
27
42%
74
18
27.8
+215
+7.0
HOME
—AP
62FPI
UTSAAACUTSA
57
7-6
53
61
28
96%
54
40
34.8
-265
-7.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2025CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALFIU20—UTSA57
CLOSED UTSA -7.0TOTAL 62.5UTSA COVERED · 77 POINTS · OVER
FIU
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
UTSA
20
POINTS
57
255
TOTAL YARDS
481
176 (21-49)
PASSING
295 (18-31)
79 (29)
RUSHING
186 (40)
22
FIRST DOWNS
25
6-18
THIRD DOWN
4-12
1-10
FOURTH DOWN
2-2
28:54
TIME OF POSS.
31:06
4-31
PENALTIES
11-133
2
TURNOVERS
0
3
SACKS
3
3
QB HURRIES
10
FIU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
UTSA
-0.148
SEASON 0.216
EPA / PLAY
0.367
SEASON 0.275
30.9%
SEASON 41.8%
SUCCESS RATE
51.6%
SEASON 44.8%
8.8%
SEASON 14.6%
EXPLOSIVE RATE
20.3%
SEASON 14.4%
3.47
SEASON 5.84
YARDS / PLAY
7.02
SEASON 6.39
0.367
SEASON 0.230
EPA ALLOWED
-0.148
SEASON 0.263
51.6%
SEASON 42.8%
SUCCESS ALLOWED
30.9%
SEASON 40.6%
20.3%
SEASON 16.4%
EXPLOSIVE ALLOWED
8.8%
SEASON 16.1%
16.1%
SEASON 14.5%
STUFF RATE
19.1%
SEASON 18.7%
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=44
MARKET
TOTAL62.5
SPREADUTSA -7.0
IMPLIED — FIU27.8
IMPLIED — UTSA34.8
PACE COLLISION
FAST × MIDDLING
FIU PACE26.5s
74
UTSA PACE27.5s
54
SHARED PACE27.0s
64
PLAY VOLUME133
64
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
FIU61CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
74
PROE
33
TEMPO
74
EXPLOSIVE74p
74
PROE33p
33
TEMPO74p
74
UTSA69CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
77
PROE
76
TEMPO
54
EXPLOSIVE77p
77
PROE76p
76
TEMPO54p
54
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
FIURECORD MATCHES
7-5ACTUALvs6.4-5.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+1.5
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
UTSARECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs6.9-5.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+4.2
UTSA won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERFLORIDA INTERNATIONALUTSA2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
LB86%Elijah Anderson-TaylorLB · 40% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTravion BarnesPORTAL · BAYLOR · 39% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAtavious WeaverLB · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE84%Dean PattersonPORTAL · GEORGIA TECH · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEric RiversPORTAL · GEORGIA TECH · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAntonio FergusonPORTAL · UAB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB71%Jamal PottsDB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJoJo Evans Jr.PORTAL · LOUISVILLE · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONHezekiah MassesPORTAL · CALIFORNIA · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL67%Jeramy PassmoreDL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEddie Walls IIIPORTAL · HOUSTON · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGiovanni DavisDL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL65%Travis BurkePORTAL · MEMPHIS · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaDarious LeePORTAL · KENNESAW STATE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNaeer JacksonPORTAL · LOUISVILLE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB52%Lexington JosephRB · 33% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONShomari LawrencePORTAL · MISSOURI STATE · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB10%Amari JonesPORTAL · BETHUNE-COOKMAN · 4% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
LBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
WR/TEAlex Perry · PORTAL ★3 · HAWAI'IJoJo Stone · PORTAL ★3 · LOUISVILLEDallas Payne · PORTAL ★3 · UAB5 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBKelvin Reyes · SIGNEE ★3Christian Barrett · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLLamont Green Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA STATEAaron Armitage · PORTAL ★3 · STANFORDDante Anderson · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA STATE2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLZaire Flournoy · PORTAL ★3 · UABAntonio Tripp Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · MIAMIJulius Pierce · PORTAL ★3 · MIDDLE TENNESSEE3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBAnthony Carrie · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIA TECHSterling Joseph · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
QBChristian Langford · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
CARRIED COMPOSITE
32.726 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
44.059 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
27.420 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB5656456163 OF 6 GRADED
RB2525666776 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE474739192117 OF 21 GRADED
OL444430502116 OF 21 GRADED
DL434342542116 OF 21 GRADED
LB3737465687 OF 8 GRADED
DB525239441714 OF 17 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE29th29
BLUE-CHIP RATIO8%39
RECRUITING CLASS#90 · 0/22 BC33
CLASS RANK TREND+5 · 3 CYCLES60
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 23 IN / 36 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
UTSAJEFF TRAYLOR6TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7474
PACE
7979
PASS RATE
7373
EXPLOSIVENESS
3939
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5858
HAVOC
9090
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
FIUWILLIE SIMMONSFIRST SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7171
PACE
9696
PASS RATE
7575
EXPLOSIVENESS
5959
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9898
HAVOC
5757
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESFIU OFFENSEUTSA OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBFLORIDA INTERNATIONAL OFFENSE
NATIONAL
64OF 136
TAL
45
PERF
56
RET
61
NATIONAL
98OF 136
RET
63
FULL DEFENSEUTSA DEFENSE
FIU QUARTERBACKSn=639% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JOE PESANSKYQBPORTAL · HOLY CROSS
474TH YR54—UNR-32
KEYONE JENKINSQBRET
464TH YR9245★3+12
CLAYTON DEESQBRET
432ND YR1135★3—
CHRISTIAN LANGFORDQBTRUE FR
381ST YR—46★3—
JAKE HELFRICHQBTRUE FR
302ND YR——UNR—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UTSA DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 59 PLAYERS35% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4761%11%
LINEBACKERSLB
4455%16%
SECONDARYDB
4569%5%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLFLORIDA INTERNATIONAL OFFENSE
NATIONAL
106OF 136
TAL
30
PERF
44
RET
50
DL
87OF 136
DL RET
61
LB
90OF 136
LB RET
55
FRONT-7UTSA DEFENSE
FIU OFFENSIVE LINEn=2150% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CHAD STALEYOLRET
503RD YR46—UNR—
ZAIRE FLOURNOYOLPORTAL · UAB
474TH YR5717★3+22
JAHEIM BUCHANONOLRET
734TH YR8445★3+48
ANTONIO TRIPP JR.OLPORTAL · MIAMI
673RD YR5576★4+39
JULIUS PIERCEOLPORTAL · MIDDLE TENNESSEE
524TH YR919★3+41
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UTSA FRONT-7n=37 · 2 ROOMS41% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
SHAD BANKS JR.LBPORTAL · TCU
674TH YR9545★3+25
CAM BLAYLOCKDLTRUE FR
633RD YR47—UNR+4
NNANNA ANYANWUDERET
614TH YR5078★3—
JON JONESDLRET
604TH YR4463★3+19
TAI LEONARDDLRET
554TH YR7259★3-17
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBFLORIDA INTERNATIONAL OFFENSE
NATIONAL
133OF 136
TAL
66
PERF
25
RET
67
DL
87OF 136
DL RET
61
LB
90OF 136
LB RET
55
FRONT-7UTSA DEFENSE
FIU RUNNING BACKSn=733% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KEJON OWENSRBRET
574TH YR9558★3+14
STERLING JOSEPHRBTRUE FR
521ST YR1665★3—
DEVONTE LYONSRBRET
502ND YR5368★3+9
ANTHONY CARRIERBPORTAL · GEORGIA TECH
422ND YR6778★3-20
JORDAN CLEMONSRBRET
372ND YR9—UNR—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UTSA FRONT-72 ROOMS · 37 PLAYERS42% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554761%11%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.454455%16%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEFLORIDA INTERNATIONAL OFFENSE
NATIONAL
89OF 136
TAL
39
PERF
47
RET
19
DB
107OF 136
DB RET
69
SECONDARYUTSA DEFENSE
FIU PASS CATCHERSn=2181% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ALEX PERRYWRPORTAL · HAWAI'I
654TH YR9764★3+7
JOJO STONEWRPORTAL · LOUISVILLE
572ND YR5217★3+27
DALLAS PAYNETEPORTAL · UAB
544TH YR8228★3+22
JUSTIN CAYENNETEPORTAL · PENNSYLVANIA
494TH YR4316★3-30
KENNY WILLIAMSWRTRUE FR
471ST YR1743★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UTSA SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM31% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KK MEIERCBTRUE FR
684TH YR8445★3-20
JERMARIUS LEWISSRET
594TH YR9228★3-10
TYAN MILTONSRET
564TH YR80—UNR-20
DAVIN MARTINCBRET
544TH YR7178★3-13
CAM UPSHAW JR.STRUE FR
523RD YR3569★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
FIU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UTSA
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
49.9
53.9
— OFFENSE
50.7
61.5
— DEFENSE
49.1
46.4
SP+ OVERALL
-10.5
3.7
FPI
-11.2
1.6
ELO
1324
1668
TALENT
563
662
PRODUCTION
21
55
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+7
−2
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.08
0.18
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
FIU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UTSA
OFF EFFICIENCY
34
65
DEF EFFICIENCY
45
78
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
75
78
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
40
6
FINISHING DRIVES
41
75
FIELD POSITION
34
11
TURNOVER MARGIN
77
79
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
FIU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UTSA
PASS RATE
48.0%
52.2%
PROE
−1.4
+4.5
PACE
26.5s
27.5s
4TH-DOWN GO RATE
29%
28%
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
57.8%
53.5%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
60.2%
65.7%
PLAYS / GAME
67.8
65.4
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
3.0%
1.7%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = FIU, ORANGE = UTSA) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2025, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE