SAT 11:00 ET|NAVY-MARINE CORPS MEMORIAL STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP16|O/U51.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
17
8-5
60
59
80
75%
50
56
32.0
-485
-12.5
HOME
23
9-4
44
57
67
51%
100
36
19.5
+370
+12.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2025CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALPITT17—ECU23
CLOSED PITT -12.5TOTAL 51.5ECU COVERED · 40 POINTS · UNDER
PITT
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
ECU
PITT
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
ECU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=44
MARKET
TOTAL51.5
SPREADPITT -12.5
IMPLIED — PITT32.0
IMPLIED — ECU19.5
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
PITTRECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs8.3-3.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+10.2
PITTSBURGH won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ECURECORD UNDERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs9.2-2.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+13.2
EAST CAROLINA won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERPITTSBURGHEAST CAROLINA2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DB56%Donovan McMillonDB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRyland GandyPORTAL · INDIANA · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONPhillip O'Brien Jr.DB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE45%Gavin BartholomewDRAFTED · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKonata MumpfieldDRAFTED · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDaejon ReynoldsPORTAL · UNLV · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL42%Nate MatlackDL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSincere EdwardsPORTAL · UCF · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNahki JohnsonPORTAL · TULSA · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB40%Brandon GeorgeLB · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChief BordersPORTAL · UNLV · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKeye ThompsonLB · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB39%Nate YarnellQB · 36% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL37%Ryan JacobyOL · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJason Collier Jr.OL · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTerrence Enos Jr.PORTAL · KANSAS STATE · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB12%Daniel CarterRB · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DBKavir Bains-Marquez · PORTAL ★3 · UC DAVISZion Ferguson · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH CAROLINARashan Murray · PORTAL ★3 · PENNWEST CALIFORNIA2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEDeuce Spann · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA STATECataurus Hicks · PORTAL ★3 · LOUISVILLETony Kinsler · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DLBlaine Spires · PORTAL ★3 · UTAH STATEJaeden Moore · PORTAL ★3 · OREGONJuJu Anderson · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
LBJustin Thompson · SIGNEE ★3Denim Cook · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
QBMason Heintschel · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
OLKendall Stanley · PORTAL ★3 · CHARLOTTEKeith Gouveia · PORTAL ★3 · RICHMONDJordan Fields · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBNO STARTING ROLE OPENEDINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · PITTSBURGH
CARRIED COMPOSITE
56.688 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
62.088 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
53.474 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB5151722653 OF 5 GRADED
RB4949655196 OF 9 GRADED
WR/TE515163582114 OF 21 GRADED
OL474766711912 OF 19 GRADED
DL686870802016 OF 20 GRADED
LB66667696159 OF 15 GRADED
DB585871671814 OF 18 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE60th60
BLUE-CHIP RATIO10%49
RECRUITING CLASS#51 · 1/25 BC62
CLASS RANK TREND0 · 3 CYCLES50
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 15 IN / 26 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 10th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
ECUBLAKE HARRELLFIRST SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6363
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9090
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
PITTPAT NARDUZZI10TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8181
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3232
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESPITT OFFENSEECU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBPITTSBURGH OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEEAST CAROLINA DEFENSE PITT QUARTERBACKSn=574% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ECU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 58 PLAYERS41% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLPITTSBURGH OFFENSEFRONT-7EAST CAROLINA DEFENSE PITT OFFENSIVE LINEn=1929% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ECU FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS17% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBPITTSBURGH OFFENSEFRONT-7EAST CAROLINA DEFENSE PITT RUNNING BACKSn=949% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ECU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS16% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556875%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEPITTSBURGH OFFENSESECONDARYEAST CAROLINA DEFENSE PITT PASS CATCHERSn=2142% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ECU SECONDARYn=28 · 1 ROOM62% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
PITT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ECU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−15
−30
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
PITT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ECU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
PITT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ECU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS50.8%
58.0%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS71.0%
58.0%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.7%
3.1%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = PITT, ORANGE = ECU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2025, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE