SAT 14:15 ET|FENWAY PARKNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP28|O/U41.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
16
9-4
30
64
13
68%
62
1
18.0
+210
+5.5
HOME
41
7-6
1
20
30
25%
47
43
23.5
-250
-5.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2025CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALCONN16—ARMY41
CLOSED ARMY -5.5TOTAL 41.5ARMY COVERED · 57 POINTS · OVER
CONN
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
ARMY
CONN
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
ARMY
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=44
MARKET
TOTAL41.5
SPREADARMY -5.5
IMPLIED — CONN18.0
IMPLIED — ARMY23.5
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
CONNRECORD MATCHES
9-3ACTUALvs8.4-3.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+11.1
UCONN won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ARMYRECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs6.1-5.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-5
POINT MARGIN / GAME+0.3
ARMY won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERUCONNARMY2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DL93%Jelani StaffordDL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLangston HardyPORTAL · WAKE FOREST · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDal'Mont GourdineDL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB68%Jayden McDonaldLB · 34% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTui Faumuina-BrownLB · 33% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL58%Valentin SennOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChristopher FortinOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChase LundtDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DB49%Jordan WrightDB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMalik Dixon-WilliamsDB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRante JonesDB · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE41%TJ SheffieldWR · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJasaiah GathingsPORTAL · BUFFALO · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB32%Durell RobinsonPORTAL · AUBURN · 28% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB1%Cole WelliverQB · <1% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DLTrent Jones II · PORTAL ★3 · IOWA STATEBen Smiley III · PORTAL ★3 · VIRGINIAAubrey Melvin · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
LBBryun Parham · PORTAL ★3 · WASHINGTONTyquan King · PORTAL ★3 · TEMPLECharles Johnson · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
OLTy Chan · PORTAL ★3 · NOTRE DAMETamarus Walker · PORTAL ★3 · MARYLANDJoe McGann · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBSammy Anderson Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · AUSTIN PEAYDiondre Glover · PORTAL ★3 · GARDNER-WEBBOsiris Gilbert · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TENaiem Simmons · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH FLORIDACaleb Burton III · PORTAL ★3 · AUBURNJavonte Vereen · PORTAL ★3 · NC STATE4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBMJ Flowers · PORTAL ★3 · EASTERN ILLINOISMalichi Greaves · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
QBKsaan Farrar · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · UCONN
CARRIED COMPOSITE
43.155 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
63.089 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
32.735 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB7171519554 OF 5 GRADED
RB5252559396 OF 9 GRADED
WR/TE626259792414 OF 24 GRADED
OL505049851911 OF 19 GRADED
DL393949211612 OF 16 GRADED
LB44444365159 OF 15 GRADED
DB414142682313 OF 23 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE30th30
BLUE-CHIP RATIO13%60
RECRUITING CLASS#114 · 0/14 BC15
CLASS RANK TREND+10 · 3 CYCLES70
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 23 IN / 22 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 4th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
ARMYJEFF MONKEN10TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
00
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
100100
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
CONNJIM MORA4TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3434
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1111
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESCONN OFFENSEARMY OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBUCONN OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEARMY DEFENSE CONN QUARTERBACKSn=55% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARMY DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 74 PLAYERS9% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLUCONN OFFENSEFRONT-7ARMY DEFENSE CONN OFFENSIVE LINEn=1915% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARMY FRONT-7n=45 · 2 ROOMS19% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBUCONN OFFENSEFRONT-7ARMY DEFENSE CONN RUNNING BACKSn=97% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARMY FRONT-72 ROOMS · 45 PLAYERS18% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.551869%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEUCONN OFFENSESECONDARYARMY DEFENSE CONN PASS CATCHERSn=2421% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARMY SECONDARYn=29 · 1 ROOM1% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
CONN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ARMY
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−32
−45
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
CONN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ARMY
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
CONN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ARMY
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS49.9%
90.6%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS66.7%
27.6%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.9%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = CONN, ORANGE = ARMY) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2025, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE