SAT 17:45 ET|UNIVERSITY STADIUM (NM)NONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP7|O/U54.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
49
12-2
31
93
9
56%
80
33
31.0
-285
-7.5
HOME
47
9-4
38
18
89
80%
29
16
23.5
+230
+7.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2025CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALUNT49—SDSU47
CLOSED UNT -7.5TOTAL 54.5SDSU COVERED · 96 POINTS · OVER
UNT
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
SDSU
UNT
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
SDSU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=44
MARKET
TOTAL54.5
SPREADUNT -7.5
IMPLIED — UNT31.0
IMPLIED — SDSU23.5
PACE COLLISION
FAST × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
UNTRECORD MATCHES
11-2ACTUALvs10.4-2.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+19.8
NORTH TEXAS won 11 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 10.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
SDSURECORD MATCHES
9-3ACTUALvs10.0-2.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+12.1
SAN DIEGO STATE won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 10.0. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERNORTH TEXASSAN DIEGO STATE2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB91%Chandler MorrisPORTAL · VIRGINIA · 91% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL78%Roderick BrownDL · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTerrell DawkinsDL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJake ShipleyDL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB64%Jaylen SmithLB · 29% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJordan BrownLB · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChavez BrownPORTAL · SOUTH FLORIDA · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL61%Landon PetersonOL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJett DuncanOL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLeke AsenugaOL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB60%Ridge TexadaCB · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJayden HillS · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrian Nelson IIPORTAL · NC STATE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE58%DT SheffieldPORTAL · RUTGERS · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDamon Ward Jr.WR · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBlair ConwrightWR · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB55%Shane PorterPORTAL · SAM HOUSTON · 33% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDamashja HarrisPORTAL · WYOMING · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONIkaika RagsdalePORTAL · STONY BROOK · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBReese Poffenbarger · PORTAL ★3 · MIAMIChris Jimerson Jr. · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DLBriceon Hayes · PORTAL ★3 · SAM HOUSTONAvion Carter · PORTAL ★3 · TCURichard Outland Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · SAM HOUSTONREFILLED
LBKenton Allen · PORTAL ★3 · ANGELO STATEJaden Manning · SIGNEE ★3Brayden Knox · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLTay Yanta · PORTAL ★3 · ABILENE CHRISTIANJaymon Lamb · PORTAL ★3 · STEPHEN F. AUSTINUgonna Nnanna · PORTAL ★3 · VIRGINIA1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DBJulian Knox · PORTAL ★3 · TCUIsaiah Collins · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS TECHDa'Veawn Armstead · PORTAL ★3 · SAM HOUSTON3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEConnor Vaughn · PORTAL ★3 · TULSATyrese Hunt-Thompson · PORTAL ★3 · FERRIS STATESimeon Evans · PORTAL ★3 · SAM HOUSTON2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBJayden Becks · PORTAL ★3 · MISSOURI STATECaleb Hawkins · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · NORTH TEXAS
CARRIED COMPOSITE
35.638 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
39.445 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
33.236 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB7070999843 OF 4 GRADED
RB7777793065 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE656556512115 OF 21 GRADED
OL505047661912 OF 19 GRADED
DL353547142016 OF 20 GRADED
LB373751491210 OF 12 GRADED
DB474737342216 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE31st31
BLUE-CHIP RATIO8%43
RECRUITING CLASS#112 · 0/11 BC17
CLASS RANK TREND-13 · 3 CYCLES24
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 33 IN / 48 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
SDSUSEAN LEWIS2TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1313
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5454
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
UNTERIC MORRIS3TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9090
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9898
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESUNT OFFENSESDSU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBNORTH TEXAS OFFENSEFULL DEFENSESAN DIEGO STATE DEFENSE UNT QUARTERBACKSn=42% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SDSU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 49 PLAYERS31% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLNORTH TEXAS OFFENSEFRONT-7SAN DIEGO STATE DEFENSE UNT OFFENSIVE LINEn=1934% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SDSU FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS36% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBNORTH TEXAS OFFENSEFRONT-7SAN DIEGO STATE DEFENSE UNT RUNNING BACKSn=670% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SDSU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS35% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554655%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TENORTH TEXAS OFFENSESECONDARYSAN DIEGO STATE DEFENSE UNT PASS CATCHERSn=2149% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SDSU SECONDARYn=19 · 1 ROOM26% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
UNT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
SDSU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−54
−32
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
UNT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
SDSU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
UNT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
SDSU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS54.1%
68.7%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS61.3%
45.3%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE2.9%
2.4%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = UNT, ORANGE = SDSU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2025, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE