SAT 21:15 ET|NRG STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP44|O/U44.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
35
7-6
96
44
93
66%
27
95
21.5
+125
+1.0
HOME
38
10-3
53
44
87
105%
91
39
22.5
-145
-1.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2025CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALLSU35—HOU38
CLOSED HOU -1.0TOTAL 44.0HOU COVERED · 73 POINTS · OVER
LSU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
HOU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=44
MARKET
TOTAL44.0
SPREADHOU -1.0
IMPLIED — LSU21.5
IMPLIED — HOU22.5
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
LSURECORD MATCHES
7-5ACTUALvs7.2-4.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+3.5
LSU won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
HOURECORD OVERSTATES
9-3ACTUALvs7.8-4.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+6.5
HOUSTON won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERLSUHOUSTON2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DL75%Bradyn SwinsonDRAFTED · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSai'vion JonesDRAFTED · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONParis ShandDE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL65%Miles FrazierDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONWill CampbellDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEmery Jones Jr.DRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE64%Mason TaylorDRAFTED · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKyren LacyWR · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCJ DanielsPORTAL · MIAMI · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB51%Zy AlexanderCB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMajor BurnsS · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSage RyanPORTAL · OLE MISS · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB46%Josh WilliamsRB · 44% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB35%Greg Penn IIILB · 34% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB2%Rickie CollinsPORTAL · SYRACUSE · 1% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DLPatrick Payton · PORTAL ★4 · FLORIDA STATEBernard Gooden · PORTAL ★4 · SOUTH FLORIDAJack Pyburn · PORTAL ★4 · FLORIDA1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
OLJosh Thompson · PORTAL ★4 · NORTHWESTERNBraelin Moore · PORTAL ★4 · VIRGINIA TECHSolomon Thomas · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TENic Anderson · PORTAL ★4 · OKLAHOMABarion Brown · PORTAL ★4 · KENTUCKYTaRon Francis · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
DBMansoor Delane · PORTAL ★4 · VIRGINIA TECHA.J. Haulcy · PORTAL ★4 · HOUSTONJa'Keem Jackson · PORTAL ★4 · FLORIDA5 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBHarlem Berry · SIGNEE ★5JT Lindsey · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
LBCharles Ross II · SIGNEE ★4Jaiden Braker · SIGNEE ★4Zach Weeks · SIGNEE ★4REFILLED
QBNO STARTING ROLE OPENEDINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · LSU
CARRIED COMPOSITE
46.160 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
49.768 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
43.754 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB4949856352 OF 5 GRADED
RB4343907184 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE676790572014 OF 20 GRADED
OL515187601812 OF 18 GRADED
DL676790401816 OF 18 GRADED
LB666689951413 OF 14 GRADED
DB747491292016 OF 20 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE96th96
BLUE-CHIP RATIO69%96
RECRUITING CLASS#10 · 21/24 BC93
CLASS RANK TREND-4 · 3 CYCLES42
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+7 · 18 IN / 23 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 4th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
HOUWILLIE FRITZ2TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1818
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7676
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
LSUBRIAN KELLY4TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9393
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2929
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESLSU OFFENSEHOU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBLSU OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEHOUSTON DEFENSE LSU QUARTERBACKSn=537% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
HOU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 48 PLAYERS61% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLLSU OFFENSEFRONT-7HOUSTON DEFENSE LSU OFFENSIVE LINEn=1840% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
HOU FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS60% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBLSU OFFENSEFRONT-7HOUSTON DEFENSE LSU RUNNING BACKSn=829% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
HOU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS58% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555031%6%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TELSU OFFENSESECONDARYHOUSTON DEFENSE LSU PASS CATCHERSn=2043% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
HOU SECONDARYn=16 · 1 ROOM63% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
LSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
HOU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+19
−19
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
LSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
HOU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
LSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
HOU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS48.7%
65.0%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS68.9%
57.8%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.5%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = LSU, ORANGE = HOU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2025, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE