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HOME›SLATE›2025›WEEK 1›USC @ TCU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
TEX @ OSU79
LSU @ CLEM74
UTSA @ TA&M69
NEB @ CIN67
ND @ MIA67
AUB @ BAY66
ODU @ IU66
MSST @ USM65
TOL @ UK65
GAST @ MISS64
TCU @ UNC64
UTAH @ UCLA63
CSU @ WASH63
NEV @ PSU62
MRSH @ UGA62
GT @ COLO61
HAW @ ARIZ61
MOST @ USC60
BOIS @ USF59
OHIO @ RUTG59
JXST @ UCF59
UTEP @ USU59
ALA @ FSU58
BALL @ PUR57
WYO @ AKR56
NU @ TULN56
UNM @ MICH56
EMU @ TXST56
CCU @ UVA55
ECU @ NCSU54
UNLV @ SHSU54
SYR @ TENN54
KENN @ WAKE53
TEM @ MASS53
CAL @ ORST53
VT @ SC52
GASO @ FRES50
M-OH @ WIS48
WMU @ MSU46
BUF @ MINN43
CMU @ SJSU39
FAU @ MD38
APP @ CLT35
RICE @ UL28
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
USC
TCU
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025
TUE 21:00 ET|ALAMODOMENONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP11|O/U56.5COLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
#20AP
13FPI
USCB1GUSC
27
9-4
88
99
47
37%
27
79
30.5
-230
-4.5
HOME
#25AP
32FPI
TCUB12TCU
30
9-4
77
84
64
61%
69
70
26.0
+190
+4.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2025CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALUSC27—TCU30
CLOSED USC -4.5TOTAL 56.5TCU COVERED · 57 POINTS · OVER
USC
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
TCU
27
POINTS
30
392
TOTAL YARDS
375
280 (18-30)
PASSING
258 (29-40)
112 (33)
RUSHING
117 (31)
19
FIRST DOWNS
20
5-12
THIRD DOWN
8-15
0-0
FOURTH DOWN
1-1
31:52
TIME OF POSS.
28:08
7-50
PENALTIES
10-81
2
TURNOVERS
1
3
SACKS
0
2
QB HURRIES
3
USC
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
TCU
0.136
SEASON 0.416
EPA / PLAY
0.323
SEASON 0.273
32.3%
SEASON 51.5%
SUCCESS RATE
44.3%
SEASON 45.0%
19.4%
SEASON 19.5%
EXPLOSIVE RATE
12.9%
SEASON 16.2%
6.29
SEASON 7.55
YARDS / PLAY
5.37
SEASON 6.23
0.323
SEASON 0.233
EPA ALLOWED
0.136
SEASON 0.204
44.3%
SEASON 45.6%
SUCCESS ALLOWED
32.3%
SEASON 41.8%
12.9%
SEASON 15.7%
EXPLOSIVE ALLOWED
19.4%
SEASON 14.5%
11.1%
SEASON 15.6%
STUFF RATE
21.9%
SEASON 16.3%
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=44
MARKET
TOTAL56.5
SPREADUSC -4.5
IMPLIED — USC30.5
IMPLIED — TCU26.0
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × FAST
USC PACE28.6s
27
TCU PACE26.7s
69
SHARED PACE27.7s
48
PLAY VOLUME130
48
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
USC63CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
85
PROE
77
TEMPO
27
EXPLOSIVE85p
85
PROE77p
77
TEMPO27p
27
TCU71CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
62
PROE
81
TEMPO
69
EXPLOSIVE62p
62
PROE81p
81
TEMPO69p
69
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
USCRECORD MATCHES
9-3ACTUALvs9.1-2.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+14.1
USC won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TCURECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs7.4-4.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+5.6
TCU won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERUSCTCU2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB92%Woody MarksDRAFTED · 66% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONQuinten JoynerRB · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONA'Marion PetersonPORTAL · UTSA · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
LB82%Easton Mascarenas-ArnoldLB · 35% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMason CobbLB · 31% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSam GreenePORTAL · KENTUCKY · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB71%Akili ArnoldS · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaylin SmithDRAFTED · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGreedy Vance Jr.CB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB68%Miller MossPORTAL · LOUISVILLE · 68% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL56%Emmanuel PregnonPORTAL · OREGON · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMason MurphyPORTAL · AUBURN · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJonah MonheimDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE51%Kyron HudsonPORTAL · PENN STATE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZachariah BranchPORTAL · GEORGIA · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDuce RobinsonPORTAL · FLORIDA STATE · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL47%Gavin MeyerDT · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJamil MuhammadDE · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNate CliftonDT · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBHarry Dalton III · SIGNEE ★4Riley Wormley · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
LBTa'Mere Robinson · PORTAL ★3 · PENN STATEMatai Tagoa'i · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
DBBishop Fitzgerald · PORTAL ★3 · NC STATEChasen Johnson · PORTAL ★3 · UCFDJ Harvey · PORTAL ★3 · SAN JOSÉ STATE5 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
QBHusan Longstreet · SIGNEE ★5PARTIAL
OLDJ Wingfield · PORTAL ★4 · PURDUEJ'Onre Reed · PORTAL ★4 · SYRACUSEAaron Dunn · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TECorey Simms · SIGNEE ★4Romero Ison · SIGNEE ★4Tanook Hines · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
DLKeeshawn Silver · PORTAL ★4 · KENTUCKYJamaal Jarrett · PORTAL ★4 · GEORGIAJahkeem Stewart · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · USC
CARRIED COMPOSITE
34.033 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
37.239 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
31.933 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB7676929553 OF 5 GRADED
RB5454421277 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE757586792615 OF 26 GRADED
OL515172752013 OF 20 GRADED
DL656593731615 OF 16 GRADED
LB545476781010 OF 10 GRADED
DB636376662220 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE88th88
BLUE-CHIP RATIO49%87
RECRUITING CLASS#14 · 13/28 BC90
CLASS RANK TREND-6 · 3 CYCLES38
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-5 · 15 IN / 28 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 4th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
TCUSONNY DYKES4TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8585
PACE
8181
PASS RATE
7878
EXPLOSIVENESS
7777
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7272
HAVOC
2626
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
USCLINCOLN RILEY4TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9797
PACE
5353
PASS RATE
8888
EXPLOSIVENESS
9393
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6767
HAVOC
4040
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESUSC OFFENSETCU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBUSC OFFENSE
NATIONAL
10OF 136
TAL
92
PERF
76
RET
95
NATIONAL
42OF 136
RET
74
FULL DEFENSETCU DEFENSE
USC QUARTERBACKSn=55% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JAYDEN MAIAVAQBRET
844TH YR9192★4+33
HUSAN LONGSTREETQBTRUE FR
521ST YR2597★4—
SAM HUARDQBPORTAL · UTAH
384TH YR1028★3-52
DYLAN GEBBIAQBRET
352ND YR—34★3—
GAGE ROYQBRET
303RD YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TCU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 56 PLAYERS25% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
3961%32%
LINEBACKERSLB
5098%0%
SECONDARYDB
5374%25%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLUSC OFFENSE
NATIONAL
68OF 136
TAL
72
PERF
51
RET
75
DL
106OF 136
DL RET
61
LB
71OF 136
LB RET
98
FRONT-7TCU DEFENSE
USC OFFENSIVE LINEn=2025% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ELIJAH PAIGEOLRET
673RD YR7692★4-25
JUSTIN TAUANUUOLRET
642ND YR6882★3-36
J'ONRE REEDOLPORTAL · SYRACUSE
624TH YR9292★4+36
KILIAN O'CONNOROLRET
584TH YR53—UNR+11
DJ WINGFIELDOLPORTAL · PURDUE
554TH YR—95★4+10 2024
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TCU FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS24% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KALEB ELARMS-ORRLBRET
814TH YR9792★4+19
NAMDI OBIAZORLBRET
604TH YR100—UNR+16
PAUL OYEWALEEDGERET
534TH YR8078★3-22
PERRY COLE JR.DTTRUE FR
523RD YR28—UNR—
MICHAEL TEASON JR.LBPORTAL · MISSOURI STATE
524TH YR2464★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBUSC OFFENSE
NATIONAL
59OF 136
TAL
42
PERF
54
RET
12
DL
106OF 136
DL RET
61
LB
71OF 136
LB RET
98
FRONT-7TCU DEFENSE
USC RUNNING BACKSn=788% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
WAYMOND JORDANRBTRUE FR
714TH YR55—UNR+31
ELI SANDERSRBPORTAL · NEW MEXICO
664TH YR9264★3+20
KING MILLERRBRET
612ND YR7227★3+28
HARRY DALTON IIIRBTRUE FR
521ST YR1764★3—
RILEY WORMLEYRBTRUE FR
491ST YR1382★3—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TCU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS22% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.553961%32%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.455098%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEUSC OFFENSE
NATIONAL
10OF 136
TAL
86
PERF
75
RET
79
DB
60OF 136
DB RET
74
SECONDARYTCU DEFENSE
USC PASS CATCHERSn=2621% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MAKAI LEMONWRRET
893RD YR9098★4+32
JA'KOBI LANEWRRET
763RD YR9186★4+21
LAKE MCREETERET
704TH YR9280★3+19
TANOOK HINESWRTRUE FR
652ND YR6585★4+28
WALKER LYONSTERET
633RD YR6392★4-7
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TCU SECONDARYn=24 · 1 ROOM26% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ELIJAH JACKSONCBPORTAL · WASHINGTON
724TH YR8478★3-25
JAMEL JOHNSONSRET
704TH YR9684★4+9
KYLIN JACKSONSPORTAL · LSU
584TH YR5064★3+31
AVERY HELMDBRET
564TH YR7892★4-19
BUD CLARKSRET
544TH YR10088★4-18
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
USC
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TCU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
63.3
55.2
— OFFENSE
65.8
63.2
— DEFENSE
60.8
47.2
SP+ OVERALL
16.9
8.3
FPI
18.0
9.4
ELO
1871
1670
TALENT
848
745
PRODUCTION
89
73
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−1
+4
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.49
0.26
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
USC
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TCU
OFF EFFICIENCY
94
68
DEF EFFICIENCY
14
63
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
85
63
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
86
35
FINISHING DRIVES
91
69
FIELD POSITION
88
35
TURNOVER MARGIN
68
28
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
USC
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TCU
PASS RATE
51.0%
52.7%
PROE
+5.1
+6.1
PACE
28.6s
26.7s
4TH-DOWN GO RATE
37%
29%
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
54.0%
54.9%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
65.5%
70.0%
PLAYS / GAME
62.9
67.3
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.7%
2.1%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = USC, ORANGE = TCU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2025, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE