WED 14:00 ET|SUN BOWLNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP18|O/U49.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
39
8-5
77
61
86
70%
84
81
23.8
+100
+2.0
HOME
42
9-5
58
86
15
18%
57
69
25.8
-120
-2.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2025CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALASU39—DUKE42
CLOSED DUKE -2.0TOTAL 49.5DUKE COVERED · 81 POINTS · OVER
ASU
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
DUKE
ASU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
DUKE
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=44
MARKET
TOTAL49.5
SPREADDUKE -2.0
IMPLIED — ASU23.8
IMPLIED — DUKE25.8
PACE COLLISION
FAST × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
ASURECORD OVERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs6.5-5.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+1.7
ARIZONA STATE won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
DUKERECORD MATCHES
8-5ACTUALvs7.8-5.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+5.3
DUKE won 8 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 7.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERARIZONA STATEDUKE2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB79%Cam SkatteboDRAFTED · 71% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDeCarlos BrooksRB · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE47%Xavier GuilloryWR · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMelquan StovallWR · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarkeston DouglasPORTAL · FLORIDA STATE · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL30%Leif FautanuOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCade BriggsOL · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB27%Caleb McCulloughLB · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB25%Shamari SimmonsS · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL15%Jeff ClarkDL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB1%Trenton BourguetQB · <1% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBKanye Udoh · PORTAL ★3 · ARMYDemarius Robinson · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TEJaren Hamilton · PORTAL ★3 · ALABAMAKhamari Anderson · PORTAL ★3 · KENTUCKYJalen Moss · PORTAL ★3 · FRESNO STATE5 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLJimeto Obigbo · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS STATEManamo'ui Muti · SIGNEE ★3Maki Stewart · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
LBIsaiah Iosefa · SIGNEE ★3Tristan Bacon · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBNyland Green · PORTAL ★3 · PURDUEAdrian Wilson · PORTAL ★3 · WASHINGTON STATEKyndrich Breedlove · PORTAL ★3 · PURDUE3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLMy'Keil Gardner · PORTAL ★3 · OREGONDaeshon Morgan · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
QBMichael Tollefson · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · ARIZONA STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
69.799 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
54.982 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
78.6100 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB65656910052 OF 5 GRADED
RB5151847766 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE484868792014 OF 20 GRADED
OL484866662014 OF 20 GRADED
DL606056911815 OF 18 GRADED
LB71716799108 OF 10 GRADED
DB575772662215 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE77th77
BLUE-CHIP RATIO20%71
RECRUITING CLASS#44 · 2/22 BC68
CLASS RANK TREND0 · 3 CYCLES50
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 17 IN / 22 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
DUKEMANNY DIAZ2TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5656
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7575
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
ASUKENNY DILLINGHAM3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5454
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8989
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESASU OFFENSEDUKE OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBARIZONA STATE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEDUKE DEFENSE ASU QUARTERBACKSn=50% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
DUKE DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 48 PLAYERS30% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLARIZONA STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7DUKE DEFENSE ASU OFFENSIVE LINEn=2034% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
DUKE FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS27% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBARIZONA STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7DUKE DEFENSE ASU RUNNING BACKSn=623% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
DUKE FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS27% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556678%17%LINEBACKERSLB
0.455366%17%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEARIZONA STATE OFFENSESECONDARYDUKE DEFENSE ASU PASS CATCHERSn=2021% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
DUKE SECONDARYn=18 · 1 ROOM33% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
ASU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
DUKE
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+20
−10
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
ASU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
DUKE
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
ASU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
DUKE
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS60.3%
52.0%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS69.3%
69.4%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.5%
0.1%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = ASU, ORANGE = DUKE) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2025, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE