THU 16:00 ET|ROSE BOWLNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP51|O/U46.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
3
11-4
99
77
85
43%
70
96
19.5
+205
+7.5
HOME
38
16-0
48
97
97
25%
55
74
27.0
-250
-7.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2025CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALALA3—IU38
CLOSED IU -7.5TOTAL 46.5IU COVERED · 41 POINTS · UNDER
ALA
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
IU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=44
MARKET
TOTAL46.5
SPREADIU -7.5
IMPLIED — ALA19.5
IMPLIED — IU27.0
PACE COLLISION
FAST × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
ALARECORD MATCHES
10-3ACTUALvs10.4-2.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+13.8
ALABAMA won 10 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 10.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
IURECORD MATCHES
13-0ACTUALvs12.5-0.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+31.1
INDIANA won 13 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 12.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERALABAMAINDIANA2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB92%Jalen MilroeDRAFTED · 91% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE49%CJ DippreTE · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRobbie OuztsDRAFTED · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKendrick LawPORTAL · KENTUCKY · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION8 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL35%Tyler BookerDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONElijah PritchettPORTAL · NEBRASKA · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB34%Jihaad CampbellDRAFTED · 31% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB33%Justice HaynesPORTAL · MICHIGAN · 32% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB31%Malachi MooreDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDeVonta SmithPORTAL · NOTRE DAME · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL31%Tim SmithDRAFTED · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDamon PaynePORTAL · MICHIGAN · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBKeelon Russell · SIGNEE ★5PARTIAL
WR/TEIsaiah Horton · PORTAL ★4 · MIAMIDerek Meadows · SIGNEE ★4Kaleb Edwards · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLKam Dewberry · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS A&MArkel Anugwom · PORTAL ★3 · BALL STATEMichael Carroll · SIGNEE ★53 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBNikhai Hill-Green · PORTAL ★4 · COLORADODuke Johnson II · SIGNEE ★4Luke Metz · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
RBDre'lyn Washington · PORTAL ★3 · LOUISIANAAK Dear · SIGNEE ★4REFILLED
DBCameron Calhoun · PORTAL ★4 · UTAHDijon Lee Jr. · SIGNEE ★5Chuck McDonald III · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DLKelby Collins · PORTAL ★4 · FLORIDAJustin Hill · SIGNEE ★4London Simmons · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · ALABAMA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
62.594 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
53.576 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
67.996 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB6868999763 OF 6 GRADED
RB4949929296 OF 9 GRADED
WR/TE717191612319 OF 23 GRADED
OL797988722416 OF 24 GRADED
DL656593851414 OF 14 GRADED
LB686896721613 OF 16 GRADED
DB707094842417 OF 24 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE99th99
BLUE-CHIP RATIO74%99
RECRUITING CLASS#3 · 17/20 BC98
CLASS RANK TREND-2 · 3 CYCLES46
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 11 IN / 26 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
IUCURT CIGNETTI2TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6666
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4343
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
ALAKALEN DEBOER2TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9595
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7373
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESALA OFFENSEIU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBALABAMA OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEINDIANA DEFENSE ALA QUARTERBACKSn=63% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
IU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 49 PLAYERS34% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLALABAMA OFFENSEFRONT-7INDIANA DEFENSE ALA OFFENSIVE LINEn=2428% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
IU FRONT-7n=29 · 2 ROOMS26% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBALABAMA OFFENSEFRONT-7INDIANA DEFENSE ALA RUNNING BACKSn=98% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
IU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 29 PLAYERS24% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.558757%5%LINEBACKERSLB
0.4587100%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEALABAMA OFFENSESECONDARYINDIANA DEFENSE ALA PASS CATCHERSn=2339% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
IU SECONDARYn=20 · 1 ROOM42% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
ALA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
IU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+13
−53
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
ALA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
IU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
ALA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
IU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS52.9%
62.4%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS74.4%
54.8%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.1%
3.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = ALA, ORANGE = IU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2025, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE