THU 20:00 ET|CAESARS SUPERDOMENONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP15|O/U53.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
39
13-2
85
93
72
18%
96
87
23.8
+180
+6.0
HOME
34
12-2
100
73
92
37%
88
90
29.8
-218
-6.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2025CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALMISS39—UGA34
CLOSED UGA -6.0TOTAL 53.5MISS COVERED · 73 POINTS · OVER
MISS
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
UGA
MISS
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
UGA
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=44
MARKET
TOTAL53.5
SPREADUGA -6.0
IMPLIED — MISS23.8
IMPLIED — UGA29.8
PACE COLLISION
FAST × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
MISSRECORD OVERSTATES
11-1ACTUALvs9.7-2.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+17.2
OLE MISS won 11 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
UGARECORD OVERSTATES
12-1ACTUALvs10.9-2.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+16.0
GEORGIA won 12 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 10.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGEROLE MISSGEORGIA2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DB94%Trey AmosDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTrey WashingtonS · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJohn Saunders Jr.S · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION8 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB93%Jaxson DartDRAFTED · 93% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB89%Henry Parrish Jr.RB · 46% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONUlysses Bentley IVRB · 28% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMatt JonesPORTAL · SOUTHERN MISS · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL79%Reece McIntyreOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNate KalepoOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMicah PettusPORTAL · FLORIDA STATE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL74%Walter NolenDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJared IveyDE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJJ PeguesDRAFTED · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE63%Antwane Wells Jr.WR · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJordan WatkinsDRAFTED · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCaden PrieskornTE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION9 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB42%Chris Paul Jr.DRAFTED · 26% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKhari ColemanLB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DBMaison Dunn · SIGNEE ★4Cortez Thomas · SIGNEE ★4Ladarian Clardy · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
QBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
RBShekai Mills-Knight · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
OLPatrick Kutas · PORTAL ★4 · ARKANSASPercy Lewis · PORTAL ★3 · AUBURNDevin Harper · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
DLPrincewill Umanmielen · PORTAL ★4 · NEBRASKADa'Shawn Womack · PORTAL ★4 · LSUAndrew Maddox · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
WR/TELuke Hasz · PORTAL ★4 · ARKANSASHarrison Wallace III · PORTAL ★4 · PENN STATETraylon Ray · PORTAL ★4 · WEST VIRGINIA7 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBJarcoby Hopson · SIGNEE ★4Corey Amos · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · OLE MISS
CARRIED COMPOSITE
20.59 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
15.48 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
23.815 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB8080691563 OF 6 GRADED
RB6666861484 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE838386352519 OF 25 GRADED
OL646475581813 OF 18 GRADED
DL818195751915 OF 19 GRADED
LB63638864129 OF 12 GRADED
DB727269252418 OF 24 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE85th85
BLUE-CHIP RATIO47%86
RECRUITING CLASS#16 · 11/22 BC89
CLASS RANK TREND+7 · 3 CYCLES64
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+6 · 28 IN / 30 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 6th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
UGAKIRBY SMART10TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8080
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2323
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
MISSLANE KIFFIN6TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4848
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8585
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESMISS OFFENSEUGA OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBOLE MISS OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEGEORGIA DEFENSE MISS QUARTERBACKSn=685% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UGA DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 54 PLAYERS19% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLOLE MISS OFFENSEFRONT-7GEORGIA DEFENSE MISS OFFENSIVE LINEn=1842% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UGA FRONT-7n=31 · 2 ROOMS25% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBOLE MISS OFFENSEFRONT-7GEORGIA DEFENSE MISS RUNNING BACKSn=886% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UGA FRONT-72 ROOMS · 31 PLAYERS24% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554960%69%LINEBACKERSLB
0.455696%67%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEOLE MISS OFFENSESECONDARYGEORGIA DEFENSE MISS PASS CATCHERSn=2565% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UGA SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM14% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
MISS
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UGA
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−11
+4
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
MISS
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UGA
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
MISS
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UGA
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS60.5%
61.9%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS64.2%
55.7%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE2.7%
1.5%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = MISS, ORANGE = UGA) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2025, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE