SUN 15:00 ET|MERCEDES-BENZ STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP16|O/U48.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
11
3-9
72
74
50
50%
19
93
20.0
+270
+8.5
HOME
24
4-8
88
36
79
63%
13
98
28.5
-340
-8.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2025CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALVT11—SC24
CLOSED SC -8.5TOTAL 48.5SC COVERED · 35 POINTS · UNDER
VT
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
SC
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=44
MARKET
TOTAL48.5
SPREADSC -8.5
IMPLIED — VT20.0
IMPLIED — SC28.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
39FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT4 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 4 positions on a 44-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
VTRECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs3.7-8.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-8.8
VIRGINIA TECH won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
SCRECORD UNDERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs6.2-5.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-2.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+0.6
SOUTH CAROLINA won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERVIRGINIA TECHSOUTH CAROLINA2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
OL81%Kaden MooreOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONParker ClementsOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBraelin MoorePORTAL · LSU · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB81%Dorian StrongDRAFTED · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMansoor DelanePORTAL · LSU · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMose Phillips IIIPORTAL · MISSOURI · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB80%Bhayshul TutenDRAFTED · 61% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMalachi ThomasPORTAL · PURDUE · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL69%Antwaun Powell-RylandDRAFTED · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAeneas PeeblesDRAFTED · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCole NelsonDL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE53%Stephen GosnellWR · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaylin LaneDRAFTED · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDa'Quan FeltonWR · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB47%Keonta JenkinsLB · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSam BrumfieldPORTAL · MEMPHIS · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKeli LawsonPORTAL · UCF · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB18%Collin SchleeQB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
OLKyle Altuner · PORTAL ★3 · WEST VIRGINIAGavin Crawford · PORTAL ★3 · WEST VIRGINIACarter Stallard · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
DBTyson Flowers · PORTAL ★3 · RICEJahmari DeLoatch · SIGNEE ★4Sheldon Robinson · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
RBCameron Seldon · PORTAL ★3 · TENNESSEETerion Stewart · PORTAL ★3 · BOWLING GREENJeffrey Overton Jr. · SIGNEE ★4REFILLED
DLKody Huisman · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH DAKOTA STATEArias Nash · PORTAL ★3 · MERCERChristian Evans · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
WR/TEIsaiah Spencer · PORTAL ★3 · JACKSON STATEShamarius Peterkin · SIGNEE ★4Jayden Anderson · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
LBMichael Short · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH CAROLINABrett Clatterbaugh · SIGNEE ★3Noah Chambers · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
QBKelden Ryan · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · VIRGINIA TECH
CARRIED COMPOSITE
32.827 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
32.532 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
32.935 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB53538510052 OF 5 GRADED
RB8686581697 OF 9 GRADED
WR/TE444470662413 OF 24 GRADED
OL484872371510 OF 15 GRADED
DL525255462118 OF 21 GRADED
LB464665721111 OF 11 GRADED
DB727262202015 OF 20 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE72nd72
BLUE-CHIP RATIO21%73
RECRUITING CLASS#39 · 4/20 BC71
CLASS RANK TREND0 · 3 CYCLES50
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-3 · 30 IN / 31 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 4th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
SCSHANE BEAMER5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6262
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6060
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
VTBRENT PRY4TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
2525
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2424
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESVT OFFENSESC OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBVIRGINIA TECH OFFENSEFULL DEFENSESOUTH CAROLINA DEFENSE VT QUARTERBACKSn=50% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SC DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 52 PLAYERS29% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLVIRGINIA TECH OFFENSEFRONT-7SOUTH CAROLINA DEFENSE VT OFFENSIVE LINEn=1563% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SC FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS38% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBVIRGINIA TECH OFFENSEFRONT-7SOUTH CAROLINA DEFENSE VT RUNNING BACKSn=984% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SC FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS39% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556467%54%LINEBACKERSLB
0.455053%35%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEVIRGINIA TECH OFFENSESECONDARYSOUTH CAROLINA DEFENSE VT PASS CATCHERSn=2434% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SC SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM21% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
VT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
SC
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+49
+23
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
VT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
SC
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
VT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
SC
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS64.9%
56.8%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS64.4%
64.0%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.7%
0.8%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = VT, ORANGE = SC) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2025, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE