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HOME›SLATE›2016›WEEK 12›TEM @ TULN›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
ARK @ MSST81
OU @ WVU80
NU @ MINN75
UNM @ CSU72
MIA @ NCSU71
NAVY @ ECU71
TLSA @ UCF71
FLA @ LSU70
ARST @ TROY69
DUKE @ PITT69
CLEM @ WAKE69
TTU @ ISU68
USM @ UNT67
NIU @ EMU66
VT @ ND66
CONN @ BC65
TEM @ TULN65
OHIO @ CMU63
FSU @ SYR63
AF @ SJSU63
UL @ UGA62
KSU @ BAY62
WSU @ COLO62
MIZ @ TENN62
USC @ UCLA62
IOWA @ ILL61
WIS @ PUR61
ASU @ WASH61
UTSA @ TA&M60
IU @ MICH60
LOU @ HOU59
ULM @ APP59
BUF @ WMU59
ARIZ @ ORST58
OKST @ TCU56
ORE @ UTAH56
GASO @ GAST56
ODU @ FAU56
PSU @ RUTG56
UNLV @ BOIS55
OSU @ MSU54
MEM @ CIN53
UVA @ GT53
USF @ SMU53
SDSU @ WYO52
USU @ NEV52
MTSU @ CLT51
MRSH @ FIU51
MISS @ VAN51
HAW @ FRES50
TEX @ KU49
BALL @ TOL48
KENT @ BGSU43
TXST @ NMSU43
STAN @ CAL43
UTEP @ RICE37
MASS @ BYU37
MD @ NEB33
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
TEMPLE
TULANE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2016
SAT 15:30 ET|YULMAN STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP24|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
40FPI
TEMAACTEMPLE
31
10-3
48
54
90
63%
48
32
0.0
—
-14.5
HOME
—AP
95FPI
TULNAACTULANE
0
4-8
24
7
67
52%
53
—
0.0
—
+14.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2016CONSENSUS · CONSENSUS
FINALTEM31—TULN0
CLOSED TEM -14.5TOTAL —TEM COVERED
TEM
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
TULN
31
POINTS
0
533
TOTAL YARDS
142
337 (18-33)
PASSING
24 (4-13)
196 (48)
RUSHING
118 (33)
26
FIRST DOWNS
8
13-21
THIRD DOWN
1-10
0-2
FOURTH DOWN
0-0
40:06
TIME OF POSS.
19:54
7-55
PENALTIES
6-50
0
TURNOVERS
2
1
SACKS
0
0
QB HURRIES
0
TEM
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
TULN
0.275
SEASON 0.255
EPA / PLAY
-0.151
SEASON 0.118
38.8%
SEASON 43.2%
SUCCESS RATE
29.3%
SEASON 38.1%
23.8%
SEASON 19.1%
EXPLOSIVE RATE
7.3%
SEASON 13.8%
6.85
SEASON 6.27
YARDS / PLAY
2.78
SEASON 5.02
-0.151
SEASON 0.088
EPA ALLOWED
0.275
SEASON 0.187
29.3%
SEASON 34.8%
SUCCESS ALLOWED
38.8%
SEASON 40.5%
7.3%
SEASON 11.8%
EXPLOSIVE ALLOWED
23.8%
SEASON 16.5%
33.3%
SEASON 25.8%
STUFF RATE
21.3%
SEASON 23.0%
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2016 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT4 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 12 FIELD n=58
MARKET
TOTAL—
SPREADTEM -14.5
IMPLIED — TEM—
IMPLIED — TULN—
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
31FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
BY ENVIRONMENT
52 / 58
DISAGREEMENT—One of the two rankings could not be computed for this game, so there is no distance between them to state.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × MIDDLING
TEM PACE26.3s
48
TULN PACE26.0s
53
SHARED PACE26.1s
51
PLAY VOLUME138
51
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
TEM56CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
63
TEMPO
48
EXPLOSIVE63p
63
TEMPO48p
48
TULN44CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
36
TEMPO
53
EXPLOSIVE36p
36
TEMPO53p
53
IS THE RECORD REAL2016 · FULL SEASON
TEMRECORD MATCHES
10-3ACTUALvs10.7-2.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+15.6
TEMPLE won 10 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 10.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TULNRECORD UNDERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs5.0-7.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-3.6
TULANE won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.0. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERTEMPLETULANE2016 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
RB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
WR/TE0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
OL0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
DL0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
LB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
DB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
RBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
WR/TENO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
OLNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
DLNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
LBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
DBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · TEMPLE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
0.00 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
0.00 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
0.00 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB————3CARRIED FROM 2015 · NOTHING GRADED YET
RB————10CARRIED FROM 2015 · NOTHING GRADED YET
WR/TE————25CARRIED FROM 2015 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL————21CARRIED FROM 2015 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL————17CARRIED FROM 2015 · NOTHING GRADED YET
LB————16CARRIED FROM 2015 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DB————20CARRIED FROM 2015 · NOTHING GRADED YET
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE48th48
BLUE-CHIP RATIO5%54
RECRUITING CLASS#59 · 1/26 BC56
COACH STATUS——
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
TULNWILLIE FRITZFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1818
PACE
3636
PASS RATE
1313
EXPLOSIVENESS
2626
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7676
HAVOC
5555
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
TEMMATT RHULEFIRST SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4545
PACE
1919
PASS RATE
3434
EXPLOSIVENESS
1212
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3434
HAVOC
8282
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESTEM OFFENSETULN OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBTEMPLE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
—
TAL
—
PERF
—
RET
—
NATIONAL
—
RET
—
FULL DEFENSETULANE DEFENSE
TEM QUARTERBACKSn=3RETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PHILLIP WALKERQBTRUE FR
————UNR—
FRANK NUTILEQBTRUE FR
—4TH YR——UNR—
LOGAN MARCHIQBTRUE FR
————UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TULN DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 39 PLAYERSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
——0%
LINEBACKERSLB
——0%
SECONDARYDB
——0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLTEMPLE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
—
TAL
—
PERF
—
RET
—
DL
—
DL RET
—
LB
—
LB RET
—
FRONT-7TULANE DEFENSE
TEM OFFENSIVE LINEn=21RETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LEON JOHNSONOLTRUE FR
————UNR—
CHRIS SMITHOLTRUE FR
—4TH YR——★3—
DION DAWKINSOLTRUE FR
————UNR—
JAELIN ROBINSONOLTRUE FR
—4TH YR——UNR—
JOVAHN FAIROLTRUE FR
—4TH YR——UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TULN FRONT-7n=22 · 2 ROOMSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TANZEL SMARTDTTRUE FR
————UNR—
DAREN WILLIAMSDETRUE FR
————UNR—
LUKE JACKSONDETRUE FR
————UNR—
QUINLAN CARROLLDETRUE FR
————UNR—
ADE ARUNADETRUE FR
————UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBTEMPLE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
—
TAL
—
PERF
—
RET
—
DL
—
DL RET
—
LB
—
LB RET
—
FRONT-7TULANE DEFENSE
TEM RUNNING BACKSn=10RETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JAHAD THOMASRBTRUE FR
————UNR—
JAGER GARDNERRBTRUE FR
—4TH YR——UNR—
NICK SHARGAFBTRUE FR
————UNR—
DAVID HOODRBTRUE FR
————★2—
DAVID HOODRBTRUE FR
————★2—
SHOW ALL 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TULN FRONT-72 ROOMS · 22 PLAYERSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.55——0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.45——0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TETEMPLE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
—
TAL
—
PERF
—
RET
—
DB
—
DB RET
—
SECONDARYTULANE DEFENSE
TEM PASS CATCHERSn=25RETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ROMOND DELOATCHTETRUE FR
————UNR—
COLIN THOMPSONTETRUE FR
————UNR—
TRAVON WILLIAMSWRTRUE FR
—4TH YR——UNR—
ISAIAH WRIGHTWRTRUE FR
—4TH YR——★3—
ADONIS JENNINGSWRTRUE FR
————UNR—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TULN SECONDARYn=17 · 1 ROOMRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARRY NICKERSONCBTRUE FR
————UNR—
RICHARD ALLENDBTRUE FR
————UNR—
JARROD FRANKLINSTRUE FR
————UNR—
STEPHON LOFTONCBTRUE FR
————UNR—
LARRY BRYANTSTRUE FR
—4TH YR——★2—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
TEM
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TULN
SP+ OVERALL
11.9
-14.6
FPI
8.6
-7.4
ELO
1739
1222
TALENT
493
388
PRODUCTION
79
9
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−34
+11
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.05
0.00
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
TEM
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TULN
PASS RATE
40.8%
31.6%
PACE
26.3s
26.0s
4TH-DOWN GO RATE
22%
28%
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
70.5%
76.5%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
64.4%
49.4%
PLAYS / GAME
68.6
69.3
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.1%
1.1%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = TEM, ORANGE = TULN) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2016, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE