FRI 22:30 ET|STANFORD STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP8|O/U50.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
22
10-2
83
91
89
83%
19
82
28.5
—
-7.0
HOME
30
9-4
90
80
44
60%
4
80
21.5
—
+7.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2017CONSENSUS · CONSENSUS
FINALWASH22—STAN30
CLOSED WASH -7.0TOTAL 50.0STAN COVERED · 52 POINTS · OVER
WASH
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
STAN
WASH
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
STAN
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2017 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 11 FIELD n=57
MARKET
TOTAL50.0
SPREADWASH -7.0
IMPLIED — WASH28.5
IMPLIED — STAN21.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
48FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT11 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 11 positions on a 57-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2017 · FULL SEASON
WASHRECORD MATCHES
10-2ACTUALvs10.8-1.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+22.4
WASHINGTON won 10 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 10.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
STANRECORD MATCHES
9-4ACTUALvs9.4-3.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+10.5
STANFORD won 9 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 9.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERWASHINGTONSTANFORD2017 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB0%Tony RodriguezQB · SHARE NOT MEASURED
RB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
WR/TE0%Jeff LindquistTE · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL0%Michael KneipOL · SHARE NOT MEASURED
DL0%Damion TurpinDL · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB0%Psalm WoochingOLB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB0%Brandon BeaverDB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBNO STARTING ROLE OPENEDINTACT
RBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
WR/TEHunter Bryant · SIGNEE ★4Ty Jones · SIGNEE ★4Terrell Bynum · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
OLHenry Bainivalu · SIGNEE ★4Jaxson Kirkland · SIGNEE ★3Cole Norgaard · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
DLNO STARTING ROLE OPENEDINTACT
LBAriel Ngata · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
DBElijah Molden · SIGNEE ★4Keith Taylor · SIGNEE ★4Brandon McKinney · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · WASHINGTON
CARRIED COMPOSITE
0.00 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB———1004CARRIED FROM 2016 · NOTHING GRADED YET
RB————5CARRIED FROM 2016 · NOTHING GRADED YET
WR/TE————23CARRIED FROM 2016 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL————14CARRIED FROM 2016 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL————12CARRIED FROM 2016 · NOTHING GRADED YET
LB————16CARRIED FROM 2016 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DB————16CARRIED FROM 2016 · NOTHING GRADED YET
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE83rd83
BLUE-CHIP RATIO43%89
RECRUITING CLASS#22 · 9/17 BC84
CLASS RANK TREND+7 · 2 CYCLES64
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX19%58
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
STANDAVID SHAW2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9292
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2626
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
WASHCHRIS PETERSEN2TH SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESWASH OFFENSESTAN OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBWASHINGTON OFFENSEFULL DEFENSESTANFORD DEFENSE WASH QUARTERBACKSn=40% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
STAN DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 41 PLAYERSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLWASHINGTON OFFENSEFRONT-7STANFORD DEFENSE WASH OFFENSIVE LINEn=14RETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
STAN FRONT-7n=29 · 2 ROOMSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBWASHINGTON OFFENSEFRONT-7STANFORD DEFENSE WASH RUNNING BACKSn=5RETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
STAN FRONT-72 ROOMS · 29 PLAYERSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.55——25%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEWASHINGTON OFFENSESECONDARYSTANFORD DEFENSE WASH PASS CATCHERSn=23RETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
STAN SECONDARYn=12 · 1 ROOMRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
WASH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
STAN
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−11
+5
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
WASH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
STAN
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS61.8%
62.9%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS57.5%
60.4%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE2.1%
1.7%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = WASH, ORANGE = STAN) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2017, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE