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HOME›SLATE›2017›WEEK 11›SAV @ NCAT›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
PUR @ NU76
WSU @ UTAH74
SMU @ NAVY73
UGA @ AUB73
WASH @ STAN70
VT @ GT70
EMU @ CMU69
WAKE @ SYR68
NCSU @ BC67
ASU @ UCLA67
BOIS @ CSU67
WVU @ KSU65
ND @ MIA65
TOL @ OHIO64
FLA @ SC64
RUTG @ PSU64
IOWA @ WIS64
TCU @ OU64
OKST @ ISU63
FAU @ LT63
UK @ VAN63
FSU @ CLEM62
FRES @ HAW62
IU @ ILL61
ALA @ MSST61
MSU @ OSU60
DUKE @ ARMY60
USC @ COLO59
TENN @ MIZ59
ORST @ ARIZ59
UNM @ TA&M58
NEB @ MINN57
KU @ TEX57
GASO @ APP56
UL @ MISS56
ARK @ LSU56
TTU @ BAY56
ARST @ USA55
TULN @ ECU53
TEM @ CIN51
UVA @ LOU51
WYO @ AF51
CONN @ UCF50
MICH @ MD49
UTEP @ UNT48
BYU @ UNLV46
GAST @ TXST46
BALL @ NIU44
UNC @ PITT44
MTSU @ CLT44
USM @ RICE44
BGSU @ BUF43
AKR @ M-OH41
ODU @ FIU38
WKU @ MRSH37
SJSU @ NEV36
KENT @ WMU26
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
SAVANNAH STATE
NORTH CAROLINA A&T
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2017
SAT 13:00 ET|AGGIE STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
—FPI
SAVSIACSAVANNAH STATE
17
3-8
0
0
0
0%
0
—
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
—FPI
NCATCAANORTH CAROLINA A&T
36
11-0
0
0
0
0%
0
—
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2017CONSENSUS
FINALSAV17—NCAT36
SAV
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
NCAT
—
POINTS
—
—
TOTAL YARDS
—
—
PASSING
—
—
RUSHING
—
—
FIRST DOWNS
—
—
THIRD DOWN
—
—
FOURTH DOWN
—
—
TIME OF POSS.
—
—
PENALTIES
—
—
TURNOVERS
—
—
SACKS
—
—
QB HURRIES
—
SAV
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
NCAT
—
SEASON -0.173
EPA / PLAY
—
SEASON 0.291
—
SEASON 16.0%
SUCCESS RATE
—
SEASON 49.2%
—
SEASON 10.0%
EXPLOSIVE RATE
—
SEASON 15.4%
—
SEASON 2.38
YARDS / PLAY
—
SEASON 6.43
—
SEASON 0.625
EPA ALLOWED
—
SEASON 0.172
—
SEASON 57.4%
SUCCESS ALLOWED
—
SEASON 43.7%
—
SEASON 31.1%
EXPLOSIVE ALLOWED
—
SEASON 23.9%
—
SEASON 21.1%
STUFF RATE
—
SEASON 16.2%
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2017 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT2 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2017 · FULL SEASON
No 2017 record, and no earlier season to carry forward for these teams.
TEAM LEDGERSAVANNAH STATENORTH CAROLINA A&T2017 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
RB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
WR/TE0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
OL0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
DL0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
LB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
DB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
RBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
WR/TENO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
OLNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
DLNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
LBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
DBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · SAVANNAH STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
0.00 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
0.00 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
0.00 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB————0NO GRADING EVIDENCE
RB————0NO GRADING EVIDENCE
WR/TE————0NO GRADING EVIDENCE
OL————0NO GRADING EVIDENCE
DL————0NO GRADING EVIDENCE
LB————0NO GRADING EVIDENCE
DB————0NO GRADING EVIDENCE
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
RECRUITING CLASS#162 · 0/12 BC0
CLASS RANK TREND+40 · 2 CYCLES100
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
NCAT—FIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
SAV—FIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESSAV OFFENSENCAT OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBSAVANNAH STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
—
TAL
—
PERF
—
RET
—
NATIONAL
—
RET
—
FULL DEFENSENORTH CAROLINA A&T DEFENSE
SAV QUARTERBACKSn=0RETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
QUARTERBACKS BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NCAT DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 1 PLAYERSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
———
LINEBACKERSLB
———
SECONDARYDB
——0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLSAVANNAH STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
—
TAL
—
PERF
—
RET
—
DL
—
DL RET
—
LB
—
LB RET
—
FRONT-7NORTH CAROLINA A&T DEFENSE
SAV OFFENSIVE LINEn=0RETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NCAT FRONT-7n=0 · 2 ROOMSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
PASS RUSH BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBSAVANNAH STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
—
TAL
—
PERF
—
RET
—
DL
—
DL RET
—
LB
—
LB RET
—
FRONT-7NORTH CAROLINA A&T DEFENSE
SAV RUNNING BACKSn=0RETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
BACKFIELD BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NCAT FRONT-72 ROOMS · 0 PLAYERSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.55———
LINEBACKERSLB
0.45———
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TESAVANNAH STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
—
TAL
—
PERF
—
RET
—
DB
—
DB RET
—
SECONDARYNORTH CAROLINA A&T DEFENSE
SAV PASS CATCHERSn=0RETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
PASS CATCHERS BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NCAT SECONDARYn=1 · 1 ROOMRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
RICHIE KITTLESSTRUE FR
————UNR—
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = SAV, ORANGE = NCAT) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2017, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE