SAT 15:30 ET|JOE AILLET STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP8|O/U68.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
48
10-3
44
66
27
90%
73
13
36.0
—
-3.5
HOME
23
6-6
36
48
13
23%
62
14
32.5
—
+3.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2017CONSENSUS · CONSENSUS
FINALFAU48—LT23
CLOSED FAU -3.5TOTAL 68.5FAU COVERED · 71 POINTS · OVER
FAU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
LT
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2017 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 11 FIELD n=57
MARKET
TOTAL68.5
SPREADFAU -3.5
IMPLIED — FAU36.0
IMPLIED — LT32.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
67FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT3 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 3 positions on a 57-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2017 · FULL SEASON
FAURECORD MATCHES
10-3ACTUALvs9.9-3.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+15.6
FLORIDA ATLANTIC won 10 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 9.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
LTRECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs6.5-5.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME+2.1
LOUISIANA TECH won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERFLORIDA ATLANTICLOUISIANA TECH2017 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB0%Tyler CameronQB · SHARE NOT MEASURED
RB0%Jay WarrenRB · SHARE NOT MEASURED
WR/TE0%Tony ThomasWR · SHARE NOT MEASURED
OL0%Dillon DeBoerOL · SHARE NOT MEASURED
DL0%Shalom OgbondaDT · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB0%Nate OzdemirLB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB0%Anthony HamiltonDB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBNO STARTING ROLE OPENEDINTACT
RBChase Lasater · SIGNEE ★3Tyrek Tisdale · SIGNEE ★2INTACT
WR/TEJordan Merrell · SIGNEE ★3Willie Wright · SIGNEE ★3Logan Peterson · SIGNEE ★2INTACT
OLRobert Hawkins · SIGNEE ★3BJ Etienne · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
DLRomello Martin · SIGNEE ★3Chase Hooper · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
LBAkileis Leroy · SIGNEE ★3Isaac Readon · SIGNEE ★2Christian Gomez · SIGNEEINTACT
DBAhman Ross · SIGNEE ★3Quran Hafiz · SIGNEE ★3Zyon Gilbert · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · FLORIDA ATLANTIC
CARRIED COMPOSITE
0.00 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB———1005CARRIED FROM 2016 · NOTHING GRADED YET
RB———9812CARRIED FROM 2016 · NOTHING GRADED YET
WR/TE————22CARRIED FROM 2016 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL————24CARRIED FROM 2016 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL————21CARRIED FROM 2016 · NOTHING GRADED YET
LB————17CARRIED FROM 2016 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DB————25CARRIED FROM 2016 · NOTHING GRADED YET
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE44th44
BLUE-CHIP RATIO3%48
RECRUITING CLASS#60 · 0/18 BC56
CLASS RANK TREND+29 · 2 CYCLES100
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
DEV TRANSITION MIX13%30
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
LTSKIP HOLTZ2TH SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
FAULANE KIFFINFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4848
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8585
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESFAU OFFENSELT OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBFLORIDA ATLANTIC OFFENSEFULL DEFENSELOUISIANA TECH DEFENSE FAU QUARTERBACKSn=50% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LT DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 48 PLAYERSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLFLORIDA ATLANTIC OFFENSEFRONT-7LOUISIANA TECH DEFENSE FAU OFFENSIVE LINEn=24RETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LT FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBFLORIDA ATLANTIC OFFENSEFRONT-7LOUISIANA TECH DEFENSE FAU RUNNING BACKSn=122% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LT FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEFLORIDA ATLANTIC OFFENSESECONDARYLOUISIANA TECH DEFENSE FAU PASS CATCHERSn=22RETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LT SECONDARYn=18 · 1 ROOMRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
FAU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
LT
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−19
+5
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
FAU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
LT
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS68.5%
60.3%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS49.8%
68.9%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.9%
0.1%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = FAU, ORANGE = LT) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2017, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE