SAT 15:30 ET|NAVY-MARINE CORPS MEMORIAL STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP25|O/U59.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
24
4-8
26
52
10
73%
59
46
19.3
+800
+20.5
HOME
38
11-2
1
83
29
97%
16
49
39.8
-1600
-20.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2025CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALUAB24—NAVY38
CLOSED NAVY -20.5TOTAL 59.0UAB COVERED · 62 POINTS · OVER
UAB
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
NAVY
UAB
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
NAVY
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 2 FIELD n=50
MARKET
TOTAL59.0
SPREADNAVY -20.5
IMPLIED — UAB19.3
IMPLIED — NAVY39.8
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
62FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT0 SLOTSBoth rankings put this game in the same place on the week's board.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
UABRECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs3.5-8.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-11.8
UAB won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
NAVYRECORD OVERSTATES
10-2ACTUALvs7.3-4.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+2.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+5.2
NAVY won 10 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERUABNAVY2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
LB94%Michael MooreLB · 36% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEverett Roussaw Jr.PORTAL · MEMPHIS · 32% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONOC BrothersLB · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB82%Lee Beebe Jr.PORTAL · INDIANA · 63% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLee WitherspoonRB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE80%Amare ThomasPORTAL · HOUSTON · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBryce DamousTE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKam ShanksPORTAL · ARKANSAS · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL79%Brady WilsonPORTAL · VIRGINIA · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONQuez YatesOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDJ JonesOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB74%Colby DempseyCB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKelvin HillPORTAL · GEORGIA TECH · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTyjon JonesS · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION8 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL65%Desmond LittleEDGE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDerrick Shepard Jr.PORTAL · TULANE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKendall JohnsonDE · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB31%Jacob ZenoPORTAL · TEXAS A&M · 29% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
LBEli Ennis · PORTAL ★3 · NICHOLLSPARTIAL
RBMarquise Collins · PORTAL ★3 · DUKEPARTIAL
WR/TEAJ Johnson · PORTAL ★3 · EAST TENNESSEE STATEKaleb Brown · PORTAL ★3 · IOWAAntonio Ferguson · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLBrandon Sneh · PORTAL ★3 · KANSAS STATEPayton Kirkland · PORTAL ★3 · COLORADOKyrik Mason · PORTAL ★3 · KENT STATE3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBPerry Fisher · PORTAL ★3 · MARYLANDDelvon Gulley · PORTAL ★3 · ALABAMA A&MJeremiah Vessel · PORTAL ★3 · UNLV2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLNigel Tate · PORTAL ★3 · BOSTON COLLEGEAmorie Morrison · PORTAL ★3 · OLD DOMINIONJames Steel · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
QBRyder Burton · PORTAL ★3 · WEST VIRGINIAINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · UAB
CARRIED COMPOSITE
21.810 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
17.010 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
25.018 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB4545577673 OF 7 GRADED
RB4545395564 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE454540562216 OF 22 GRADED
OL494934541912 OF 19 GRADED
DL404038651816 OF 18 GRADED
LB32323538106 OF 10 GRADED
DB373742401914 OF 19 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE26th26
BLUE-CHIP RATIO6%32
RECRUITING CLASS#125 · 0/11 BC7
CLASS RANK TREND-33 · 3 CYCLES0
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+1 · 29 IN / 37 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
NAVYBRIAN NEWBERRY3TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
22
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7272
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
UABTRENT DILFER3TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7777
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9494
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESUAB OFFENSENAVY OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBUAB OFFENSEFULL DEFENSENAVY DEFENSE UAB QUARTERBACKSn=724% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NAVY DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 88 PLAYERS9% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLUAB OFFENSEFRONT-7NAVY DEFENSE UAB OFFENSIVE LINEn=1946% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NAVY FRONT-7n=59 · 2 ROOMS7% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBUAB OFFENSEFRONT-7NAVY DEFENSE UAB RUNNING BACKSn=645% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NAVY FRONT-72 ROOMS · 59 PLAYERS8% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556099%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEUAB OFFENSESECONDARYNAVY DEFENSE UAB PASS CATCHERSn=2244% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NAVY SECONDARYn=29 · 1 ROOM11% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
UAB
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NAVY
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+16
−65
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
UAB
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NAVY
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
UAB
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NAVY
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS53.9%
83.8%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS77.0%
45.2%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE2.4%
0.8%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = UAB, ORANGE = NAVY) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2025, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE