SAT 22:00 ET|AGGIE MEMORIAL STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP8|O/U47.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
29
6-6
16
5
76
56%
14
48
26.0
—
-5.0
HOME
7
3-9
8
7
9
31%
68
9
21.0
—
+5.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2018CONSENSUS · TEAMRANKINGS
FINALWYO29—NMSU7
CLOSED WYO -5.0TOTAL 47.0WYO COVERED · 36 POINTS · UNDER
WYO
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
NMSU
WYO
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
NMSU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2018 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=2
MARKET
TOTAL47.0
SPREADWYO -5.0
IMPLIED — WYO26.0
IMPLIED — NMSU21.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
39FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT0 SLOTSBoth rankings put this game in the same place on the week's board.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2018 · FULL SEASON
WYORECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs5.6-6.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-1.3
WYOMING won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
NMSURECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs2.8-9.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-16.1
NEW MEXICO STATE won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERWYOMINGNEW MEXICO STATE2018 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB0%Josh AllenDRAFTED · SHARE NOT MEASURED
RB0%Drew Van MaanenFB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
OL0%Dalton FieldsG · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL0%Taniela LoloheaDE · SHARE NOT MEASURED
LB0%Jalen OrtizLB · SHARE NOT MEASURED
DB0%Robert PriesterCB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBNO STARTING ROLE OPENEDINTACT
RBJevon Bigelow · SIGNEE ★2INTACT
WR/TENO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
OLBlayne Baker · SIGNEE ★2Zach Watts · SIGNEE ★2Frank Crum · SIGNEEINTACT
DLNO STARTING ROLE OPENEDINTACT
LBChuck Hicks · SIGNEE ★2Leevi Lafaele · SIGNEE ★2INTACT
DBChad Muma · SIGNEE ★3Miles Williams · SIGNEE ★2Cameron Murray · SIGNEE ★2INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · WYOMING
CARRIED COMPOSITE
0.00 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB———223CARRIED FROM 2017 · NOTHING GRADED YET
RB———412CARRIED FROM 2017 · NOTHING GRADED YET
WR/TE————18CARRIED FROM 2017 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL————13CARRIED FROM 2017 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL————16CARRIED FROM 2017 · NOTHING GRADED YET
LB————11CARRIED FROM 2017 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DB————15CARRIED FROM 2017 · NOTHING GRADED YET
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE16th16
BLUE-CHIP RATIO2%40
RECRUITING CLASS#126 · 0/21 BC6
CLASS RANK TREND-10 · 3 CYCLES30
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX24%62
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
NMSUDOUG MARTIN3TH SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
WYOCRAIG BOHL3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
99
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESWYO OFFENSENMSU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBWYOMING OFFENSEFULL DEFENSENEW MEXICO STATE DEFENSE WYO QUARTERBACKSn=378% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NMSU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 53 PLAYERSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLWYOMING OFFENSEFRONT-7NEW MEXICO STATE DEFENSE WYO OFFENSIVE LINEn=13RETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NMSU FRONT-7n=36 · 2 ROOMSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBWYOMING OFFENSEFRONT-7NEW MEXICO STATE DEFENSE WYO RUNNING BACKSn=1296% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NMSU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 36 PLAYERSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEWYOMING OFFENSESECONDARYNEW MEXICO STATE DEFENSE WYO PASS CATCHERSn=18RETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NMSU SECONDARYn=17 · 1 ROOMRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
WYO
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NMSU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−36
−3
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
WYO
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NMSU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS69.7%
43.8%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS60.6%
78.2%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.3%
3.2%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = WYO, ORANGE = NMSU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2018, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE