SAT 15:30 ET|NOTRE DAME STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP72|O/U60.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
16
4-8
21
37
10
127%
95
16
13.0
—
+34.5
HOME
24
12-0
93
74
85
68%
77
57
47.5
—
-34.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2018CONSENSUS · CONSENSUS
FINALBALL16—ND24
CLOSED ND -34.5TOTAL 60.5BALL COVERED · 40 POINTS · UNDER
BALL
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
ND
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2018 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 2 FIELD n=49
MARKET
TOTAL60.5
SPREADND -34.5
IMPLIED — BALL13.0
IMPLIED — ND47.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
59FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT0 SLOTSBoth rankings put this game in the same place on the week's board.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2018 · FULL SEASON
BALLRECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs4.0-8.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-8.3
BALL STATE won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.0. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
NDRECORD OVERSTATES
12-0ACTUALvs10.0-2.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+2.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+16.5
NOTRE DAME won 12 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 10.0. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERBALL STATENOTRE DAME2018 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB0%Jack MilasQB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
WR/TE0%Jordan HogueWR · SHARE NOT MEASURED
OL0%Vinnie PalazetiOL · SHARE NOT MEASURED
DL0%Anthony WinbushDE · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB0%Damon SingletonLB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB0%Verenzo HolmesDB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBNO STARTING ROLE OPENEDINTACT
RBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
WR/TEYo'Heinz Tyler · SIGNEE ★3Wes Obermeier · SIGNEE ★3A.J. Uzodinma · SIGNEE ★2INTACT
OLLuke Martin · SIGNEE ★3Jaylen Turner · SIGNEE ★3Caleb Murray · SIGNEE ★2INTACT
DLKyron Mims · SIGNEE ★3Emeka Jilliani · SIGNEE ★2INTACT
LBNO STARTING ROLE OPENEDINTACT
DBTyler Potts · SIGNEE ★2Dantavian Stephens · SIGNEE ★2INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · BALL STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
0.00 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB———455CARRIED FROM 2017 · NOTHING GRADED YET
RB———1009CARRIED FROM 2017 · NOTHING GRADED YET
WR/TE————26CARRIED FROM 2017 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL————12CARRIED FROM 2017 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL————11CARRIED FROM 2017 · NOTHING GRADED YET
LB————16CARRIED FROM 2017 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DB————21CARRIED FROM 2017 · NOTHING GRADED YET
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE21st21
BLUE-CHIP RATIO0%17
RECRUITING CLASS#119 · 0/17 BC11
CLASS RANK TREND-6 · 3 CYCLES38
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX20%45
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
NDBRIAN KELLY3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9393
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2929
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
BALLMIKE NEU3TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6060
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3434
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESBALL OFFENSEND OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBBALL STATE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSENOTRE DAME DEFENSE BALL QUARTERBACKSn=555% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ND DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 58 PLAYERSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLBALL STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7NOTRE DAME DEFENSE BALL OFFENSIVE LINEn=12RETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ND FRONT-7n=36 · 2 ROOMSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBBALL STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7NOTRE DAME DEFENSE BALL RUNNING BACKSn=90% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ND FRONT-72 ROOMS · 36 PLAYERSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.55——28%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEBALL STATE OFFENSESECONDARYNOTRE DAME DEFENSE BALL PASS CATCHERSn=26RETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ND SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOMRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
BALL
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ND
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+7
+2
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
BALL
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ND
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS53.3%
60.9%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS70.0%
56.4%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.6%
2.3%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = BALL, ORANGE = ND) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2018, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE