SAT 21:00 ET|SAM BOYD STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP16|O/U55.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
24
1-11
15
12
29
27%
5
8
16.0
—
+23.0
HOME
52
4-8
31
36
7
78%
73
43
39.0
—
-23.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2018CONSENSUS · CONSENSUS
FINALUTEP24—UNLV52
CLOSED UNLV -23.0TOTAL 55.0UNLV COVERED · 76 POINTS · OVER
UTEP
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
UNLV
UTEP
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
UNLV
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2018 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 2 FIELD n=49
MARKET
TOTAL55.0
SPREADUNLV -23.0
IMPLIED — UTEP16.0
IMPLIED — UNLV39.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
57FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT12 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 12 positions on a 49-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2018 · FULL SEASON
UTEPRECORD UNDERSTATES
1-11ACTUALvs2.3-9.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-15.1
UTEP won 1 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
UNLVRECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs4.2-7.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-8.5
UNLV won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERUTEPUNLV2018 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB0%Zack GreenleeQB · SHARE NOT MEASURED
RB0%Kevin DovePORTAL · TEXAS SOUTHERN · SHARE NOT MEASURED
WR/TE0%Brandon MossWR · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL0%Logan Tuley-TillmanOL · SHARE NOT MEASURED
DL0%Julian JacksonDL · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB0%Dante LovilotteLB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB0%Jesse MontgomeryDB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBNO STARTING ROLE OPENEDINTACT
RBKriston Davis · SIGNEEINTACT
WR/TEAndrew Nwachukwu · SIGNEE ★3Jonathan Patrick Jr. · SIGNEE ★2Ricky Baker · SIGNEE ★2INTACT
OLCameron Cooper · SIGNEE ★2Solomon Polk · SIGNEE ★2Jenson Misaalefua · SIGNEE ★2INTACT
DLNathan Logoleo · SIGNEE ★2Savien Jenkins · SIGNEE ★2INTACT
LBCal Wallerstedt · SIGNEE ★2INTACT
DBNO STARTING ROLE OPENEDINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · UTEP
CARRIED COMPOSITE
0.00 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB———466CARRIED FROM 2017 · NOTHING GRADED YET
RB———6812CARRIED FROM 2017 · NOTHING GRADED YET
WR/TE————21CARRIED FROM 2017 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL————18CARRIED FROM 2017 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL————19CARRIED FROM 2017 · NOTHING GRADED YET
LB————15CARRIED FROM 2017 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DB————20CARRIED FROM 2017 · NOTHING GRADED YET
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE15th15
BLUE-CHIP RATIO3%44
RECRUITING CLASS#129 · 0/19 BC4
CLASS RANK TREND-4 · 3 CYCLES42
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
DEV TRANSITION MIX23%57
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
UNLVTONY SANCHEZ3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4646
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
UTEPDANA DIMELFIRST SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3131
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8484
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESUTEP OFFENSEUNLV OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBUTEP OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEUNLV DEFENSE UTEP QUARTERBACKSn=654% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNLV DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 51 PLAYERSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLUTEP OFFENSEFRONT-7UNLV DEFENSE UTEP OFFENSIVE LINEn=18RETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNLV FRONT-7n=31 · 2 ROOMSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBUTEP OFFENSEFRONT-7UNLV DEFENSE UTEP RUNNING BACKSn=1232% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNLV FRONT-72 ROOMS · 31 PLAYERSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEUTEP OFFENSESECONDARYUNLV DEFENSE UTEP PASS CATCHERSn=21RETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNLV SECONDARYn=20 · 1 ROOMRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
UTEP
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UNLV
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+9
+7
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
UTEP
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UNLV
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS62.1%
72.8%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS63.8%
66.2%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.5%
2.7%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = UTEP, ORANGE = UNLV) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2018, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE