SAT 19:00 ET|RICE STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP29|O/U38.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
35
10-3
53
44
87
105%
91
43
26.0
-550
-13.5
HOME
9
5-8
23
4
40
75%
32
45
12.5
+390
+13.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2025CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALHOU35—RICE9
CLOSED HOU -13.5TOTAL 38.5HOU COVERED · 44 POINTS · OVER
HOU
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
RICE
HOU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
RICE
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 2 FIELD n=50
MARKET
TOTAL38.5
SPREADHOU -13.5
IMPLIED — HOU26.0
IMPLIED — RICE12.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
31FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT2 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 2 positions on a 50-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
HOURECORD OVERSTATES
9-3ACTUALvs7.8-4.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+6.5
HOUSTON won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
RICERECORD OVERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs2.9-9.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+2.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-12.4
RICE won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERHOUSTONRICE2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
OL66%Peyton DunnOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJake WileyOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTank JenkinsOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB66%A.J. HaulcyPORTAL · LSU · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJeremiah WilsonPORTAL · FLORIDA STATE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONHershey McLaurinPORTAL · PURDUE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB64%Michael BattonLB · 31% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJamal MorrisLB · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKendre GantLB · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL61%A.J. Holmes Jr.PORTAL · TEXAS TECH · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKeith Cooper Jr.DL · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZykeius StrongDL · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB52%Donovan SmithQB · 47% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE40%Maliq CarrTE · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJoseph Manjack IVPORTAL · TCU · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJonah WilsonWR · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB8%Parker JenkinsPORTAL · EAST CAROLINA · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
OLMatthew Wykoff · PORTAL ★3 · CALIFORNIADemetris Dean II · SIGNEE ★4Eythan Thompson · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBZelmar Vedder · PORTAL ★3 · SACRAMENTO STATEBlake Thompson · PORTAL ★3 · LOUISIANA TECHC.J. Douglas · PORTAL ★3 · SAMFORDREFILLED
LBJesus Machado · PORTAL ★3 · TULANERichmond Ugochukwu · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLEddie Walls III · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA INTERNATIONALKhalil Laufau · PORTAL ★3 · WASHINGTON STATEJoshua Donald · PORTAL ★3 · APP STATE5 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
QBConner Weigman · PORTAL ★4 · TEXAS A&MAustin Carlisle · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
WR/TETanner Koziol · PORTAL ★4 · WISCONSINLuke McGary · PORTAL ★3 · TULSAAmare Thomas · PORTAL ★3 · UAB2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBNO STARTING ROLE OPENEDINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · HOUSTON
CARRIED COMPOSITE
39.549 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
46.662 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
35.840 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB636392652 OF 5 GRADED
RB50504037105 OF 10 GRADED
WR/TE555580252315 OF 23 GRADED
OL585852191712 OF 17 GRADED
DL505063311712 OF 17 GRADED
LB404059551510 OF 15 GRADED
DB575763371612 OF 16 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE53rd53
BLUE-CHIP RATIO9%45
RECRUITING CLASS#52 · 2/19 BC62
CLASS RANK TREND+3 · 3 CYCLES56
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 28 IN / 28 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
RICESCOTT ABELLFIRST SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
11
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6262
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
HOUWILLIE FRITZ2TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1818
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7676
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESHOU OFFENSERICE OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBHOUSTON OFFENSEFULL DEFENSERICE DEFENSE HOU QUARTERBACKSn=594% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RICE DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 47 PLAYERS46% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLHOUSTON OFFENSEFRONT-7RICE DEFENSE HOU OFFENSIVE LINEn=1781% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RICE FRONT-7n=27 · 2 ROOMS33% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBHOUSTON OFFENSEFRONT-7RICE DEFENSE HOU RUNNING BACKSn=1063% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RICE FRONT-72 ROOMS · 27 PLAYERS31% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.553646%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEHOUSTON OFFENSESECONDARYRICE DEFENSE HOU PASS CATCHERSn=2375% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RICE SECONDARYn=20 · 1 ROOM57% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
HOU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
RICE
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−19
+10
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
HOU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
RICE
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
HOU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
RICE
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS65.0%
80.3%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS57.8%
45.1%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.0%
1.7%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = HOU, ORANGE = RICE) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2025, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE