SAT 19:00 ET|JERRY RICHARDSON STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP56|O/U49.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
20
4-8
78
51
65
16%
1
47
33.0
-800
-16.5
HOME
3
1-11
22
7
34
24%
4
67
16.5
+500
+16.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2025CONSENSUS · ESPN BET
FINALUNC20—CLT3
CLOSED UNC -16.5TOTAL 49.5UNC COVERED · 23 POINTS · UNDER
UNC
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
CLT
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 2 FIELD n=50
MARKET
TOTAL49.5
SPREADUNC -16.5
IMPLIED — UNC33.0
IMPLIED — CLT16.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
33FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT13 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 13 positions on a 50-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
UNCRECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs4.3-7.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-5.3
NORTH CAROLINA won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
CLTRECORD MATCHES
1-11ACTUALvs1.2-10.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME-22.0
CHARLOTTE won 1 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 1.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERNORTH CAROLINACHARLOTTE2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
LB100%Power EcholsLB · 44% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAmare CampbellPORTAL · PENN STATE · 43% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCaleb LaValleeLB · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL96%Desmond EvansDL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJahvaree RitzieDL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKevin Hester Jr.DL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION9 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB95%Jacolby CriswellPORTAL · EAST TENNESSEE STATE · 82% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONConner HarrellPORTAL · CHARLOTTE · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB76%Omarion HamptonDRAFTED · 74% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE67%John CopenhaverTE · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJ.J. JonesWR · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBryson NesbitTE · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB54%Alijah HuzzieDB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAntavious LaneDB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJakeen HarrisDB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL48%Willie LampkinOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONHoward SampsonPORTAL · TEXAS TECH · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
LBKhmori House · PORTAL ★4 · WASHINGTONMikai Gbayor · PORTAL ★4 · MISSOURITyler Houser · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLPryce Yates · PORTAL ★4 · UCONNSmith Vilbert · PORTAL ★4 · PENN STATED'Antre Robinson · PORTAL ★4 · FLORIDA4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
QBGio Lopez · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH ALABAMABryce Baker · SIGNEE ★4Au'Tori Newkirk · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
RBJaylen McGill · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TEAdrian Wilson · PORTAL ★3 · COLORADOAziah Johnson · PORTAL ★3 · MICHIGAN STATEEvan Haynes · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBThaddeus Dixon · PORTAL ★4 · WASHINGTONGreg Smith · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDAJavion Butts · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
OLDaniel King · PORTAL ★4 · HUDSON VALLEYChristo Kelly · PORTAL ★3 · HOLY CROSSJordan Hall · PORTAL ★3 · UAB2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · NORTH CAROLINA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
29.219 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
40.147 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
22.612 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB5959702363 OF 6 GRADED
RB3131683786 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE404064682216 OF 22 GRADED
OL464674221711 OF 17 GRADED
DL464683251813 OF 18 GRADED
LB7373682106 OF 10 GRADED
DB535381482119 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE78th78
BLUE-CHIP RATIO23%75
RECRUITING CLASS#41 · 1/30 BC70
CLASS RANK TREND-11 · 3 CYCLES28
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+1 · 39 IN / 55 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
CLTTIM ALBINFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4343
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
UNCBILL BELICHICKFIRST SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7070
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1313
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESUNC OFFENSECLT OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBNORTH CAROLINA OFFENSEFULL DEFENSECHARLOTTE DEFENSE UNC QUARTERBACKSn=677% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CLT DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 50 PLAYERS66% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLNORTH CAROLINA OFFENSEFRONT-7CHARLOTTE DEFENSE UNC OFFENSIVE LINEn=1778% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CLT FRONT-7n=29 · 2 ROOMS81% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBNORTH CAROLINA OFFENSEFRONT-7CHARLOTTE DEFENSE UNC RUNNING BACKSn=863% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CLT FRONT-72 ROOMS · 29 PLAYERS80% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.552215%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TENORTH CAROLINA OFFENSESECONDARYCHARLOTTE DEFENSE UNC PASS CATCHERSn=2232% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CLT SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM55% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
UNC
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CLT
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+45
+20
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
UNC
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CLT
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
UNC
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CLT
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS53.0%
53.3%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS68.0%
71.1%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.5%
2.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = UNC, ORANGE = CLT) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2025, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE