THU 19:30 ET|ALLEGACY FEDERAL CREDIT UNION STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP21|O/U52.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
34
8-5
68
89
43
95%
29
79
30.0
-298
-7.5
HOME
24
9-4
47
24
98
26%
35
47
22.5
+240
+7.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2025CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALNCSU34—WAKE24
CLOSED NCSU -7.5TOTAL 52.5NCSU COVERED · 58 POINTS · OVER
NCSU
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
WAKE
NCSU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
WAKE
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 3 FIELD n=47
MARKET
TOTAL52.5
SPREADNCSU -7.5
IMPLIED — NCSU30.0
IMPLIED — WAKE22.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
41FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT20 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 20 positions on a 47-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
NCSURECORD MATCHES
7-5ACTUALvs6.3-5.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+1.3
NC STATE won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
WAKERECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs7.5-4.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+5.3
WAKE FOREST won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERNC STATEWAKE FOREST2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DB83%DK KaufmanS · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBishop FitzgeraldPORTAL · USC · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAydan WhiteCB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB64%Jordan WatersRB · 32% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKendrick RaphaelPORTAL · CALIFORNIA · 30% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL54%Zeke CorrellOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTimothy McKayOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAnthony BeltonDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB51%Devon BettyLB · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKamal BonnerPORTAL · MIAMI · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL43%Davin VannEDGE · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNoah PotterDE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE32%KC ConcepcionPORTAL · TEXAS A&M · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDacari CollinsPORTAL · LOUISVILLE · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB20%Grayson McCallQB · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DBBrian Nelson II · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH TEXASJaren Sensabaugh · PORTAL ★3 · MISSOURICam Strong · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
RBDeandre Desinor · SIGNEE ★3RJ Boyd · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLSpike Sowells Jr. · SIGNEE ★4TK Whitset · SIGNEE ★4Michael Gibbs · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
LBSterling Dixon · PORTAL ★3 · ALABAMALaCorian Hodge · SIGNEE ★3Ke'Von Carter · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLJoseph Adedire · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS TECHTra Thomas · PORTAL ★3 · TEMPLESabastian Harsh · PORTAL ★3 · WYOMING3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEJe'rel Bolder · SIGNEE ★4Gerritt Kemp · SIGNEE ★3Gus Ritchey · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
QBWill Wilson · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · NC STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
41.851 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
51.570 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
36.341 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB6868859863 OF 6 GRADED
RB6666919964 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE616179852217 OF 22 GRADED
OL646468512114 OF 21 GRADED
DL494969482010 OF 20 GRADED
LB505064492010 OF 20 GRADED
DB505075292216 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE68th68
BLUE-CHIP RATIO23%75
RECRUITING CLASS#34 · 3/23 BC75
CLASS RANK TREND+9 · 3 CYCLES68
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-3 · 18 IN / 19 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 10th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
WAKEJAKE DICKERTFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9494
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6868
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
NCSUDAVE DOEREN10TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6767
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1616
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESNCSU OFFENSEWAKE OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBNC STATE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEWAKE FOREST DEFENSE NCSU QUARTERBACKSn=62% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WAKE DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 53 PLAYERS50% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLNC STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7WAKE FOREST DEFENSE NCSU OFFENSIVE LINEn=2149% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WAKE FRONT-7n=29 · 2 ROOMS50% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBNC STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7WAKE FOREST DEFENSE NCSU RUNNING BACKSn=61% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WAKE FRONT-72 ROOMS · 29 PLAYERS48% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.557431%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TENC STATE OFFENSESECONDARYWAKE FOREST DEFENSE NCSU PASS CATCHERSn=2215% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WAKE SECONDARYn=24 · 1 ROOM49% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
NCSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
WAKE
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+7
−16
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
NCSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
WAKE
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
NCSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
WAKE
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS58.1%
60.8%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS73.9%
70.3%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE2.3%
2.5%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = NCSU, ORANGE = WAKE) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2025, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE