SAT 15:45 ET|MICHIGAN STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP3|O/U49.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
7
9-3
92
61
69
59%
43
48
18.3
—
+13.0
HOME
42
10-2
95
74
95
76%
53
49
31.3
—
-13.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2018CONSENSUS · CONSENSUS
FINALPSU7—MICH42
CLOSED MICH -13.0TOTAL 49.5MICH COVERED · 49 POINTS · UNDER
PSU
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
MICH
PSU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
MICH
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2018 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 10 FIELD n=61
MARKET
TOTAL49.5
SPREADMICH -13.0
IMPLIED — PSU18.3
IMPLIED — MICH31.3
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
45FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT0 SLOTSBoth rankings put this game in the same place on the week's board.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2018 · FULL SEASON
PSURECORD MATCHES
9-3ACTUALvs9.4-2.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+14.6
PENN STATE won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
MICHRECORD MATCHES
10-2ACTUALvs10.2-1.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+19.3
MICHIGAN won 10 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 10.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERPENN STATEMICHIGAN2018 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB0%Billy FesslerQB · SHARE NOT MEASURED
RB0%Josh McPhearsonRB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE0%Irvin CharlesWR · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL0%Brendan MahonOL · SHARE NOT MEASURED
DL0%Colin CastagnaDE · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB0%Manny BowenLB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB0%Christian CampbellDRAFTED · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBNO STARTING ROLE OPENEDINTACT
RBNO STARTING ROLE OPENEDINTACT
WR/TEJustin Shorter · SIGNEE ★5Zack Kuntz · SIGNEE ★4Jahan Dotson · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
OLRasheed Walker · SIGNEE ★4Nana Asiedu · SIGNEE ★4Juice Scruggs · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
DLPJ Mustipher · SIGNEE ★4Aeneas Hawkins · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
LBJesse Luketa · SIGNEE ★4Nick Tarburton · SIGNEE ★4Charlie Katshir · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
DBJordan Miner · SIGNEE ★4Trent Gordon · SIGNEE ★3Isaiah Humphries · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · PENN STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
0.00 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB———1004CARRIED FROM 2017 · NOTHING GRADED YET
RB———156CARRIED FROM 2017 · NOTHING GRADED YET
WR/TE————27CARRIED FROM 2017 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL————16CARRIED FROM 2017 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL————17CARRIED FROM 2017 · NOTHING GRADED YET
LB————15CARRIED FROM 2017 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DB————18CARRIED FROM 2017 · NOTHING GRADED YET
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE92nd92
BLUE-CHIP RATIO62%95
RECRUITING CLASS#6 · 15/23 BC96
CLASS RANK TREND+14 · 3 CYCLES78
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX32%95
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
MICHJIM HARBAUGH3TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4545
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4646
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
PSUJAMES FRANKLIN3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6565
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8282
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESPSU OFFENSEMICH OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBPENN STATE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEMICHIGAN DEFENSE PSU QUARTERBACKSn=40% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MICH DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 68 PLAYERSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLPENN STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7MICHIGAN DEFENSE PSU OFFENSIVE LINEn=16RETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MICH FRONT-7n=43 · 2 ROOMSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBPENN STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7MICHIGAN DEFENSE PSU RUNNING BACKSn=685% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MICH FRONT-72 ROOMS · 43 PLAYERSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.55——25%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEPENN STATE OFFENSESECONDARYMICHIGAN DEFENSE PSU PASS CATCHERSn=27RETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MICH SECONDARYn=25 · 1 ROOMRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
PSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MICH
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+2
+2
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
PSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MICH
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
PSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MICH
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS59.5%
70.0%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS53.6%
64.4%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE2.2%
2.6%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = PSU, ORANGE = MICH) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2018, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE