SAT 12:00 ET|RYNEARSON STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP7|O/U41.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
7
4-8
20
2
52
34%
6
41
15.0
—
+11.5
HOME
27
7-5
14
15
61
15%
62
—
26.5
—
-11.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2018CONSENSUS · CONSENSUS
FINALAKR7—EMU27
CLOSED EMU -11.5TOTAL 41.5EMU COVERED · 34 POINTS · UNDER
AKR
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
EMU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2018 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 11 FIELD n=61
MARKET
TOTAL41.5
SPREADEMU -11.5
IMPLIED — AKR15.0
IMPLIED — EMU26.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
33FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT9 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 9 positions on a 61-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2018 · FULL SEASON
AKRRECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs3.6-8.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME-8.3
AKRON won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
EMURECORD MATCHES
7-5ACTUALvs7.6-4.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME+5.5
EASTERN MICHIGAN won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERAKRONEASTERN MICHIGAN2018 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB0%Thomas WoodsonQB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB0%Warren BallRB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE0%Kobie BookerTE · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL0%Xavier QuigleyOL · SHARE NOT MEASURED
DL0%Michael KishDE · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB0%Andrew HauserLB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB0%Mikee HayesCB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBNO STARTING ROLE OPENEDINTACT
RBKeyondre White · SIGNEE ★3Abraham Alce · SIGNEE ★3Devanier Floyd · SIGNEE ★2INTACT
WR/TEJalen Hooks · SIGNEE ★3Timothy Scippio · SIGNEE ★2Treon Sibley · SIGNEE ★2INTACT
OLDevin Jordan · SIGNEE ★3R.J. Kelly · SIGNEE ★2Ben Phillis · SIGNEE ★2INTACT
DLLogan Hawkins · SIGNEE ★2INTACT
LBNO STARTING ROLE OPENEDINTACT
DBRich Hall · SIGNEE ★2INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · AKRON
CARRIED COMPOSITE
0.00 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB———315CARRIED FROM 2017 · NOTHING GRADED YET
RB———4011CARRIED FROM 2017 · NOTHING GRADED YET
WR/TE————23CARRIED FROM 2017 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL————18CARRIED FROM 2017 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL————15CARRIED FROM 2017 · NOTHING GRADED YET
LB————17CARRIED FROM 2017 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DB————19CARRIED FROM 2017 · NOTHING GRADED YET
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE20th20
BLUE-CHIP RATIO0%17
RECRUITING CLASS#127 · 0/14 BC5
CLASS RANK TREND+5 · 3 CYCLES60
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX19%36
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
EMUCHRIS CREIGHTON3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5454
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2727
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
AKRTERRY BOWDEN3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
2222
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1515
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESAKR OFFENSEEMU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBAKRON OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEEASTERN MICHIGAN DEFENSE AKR QUARTERBACKSn=569% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EMU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 54 PLAYERSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLAKRON OFFENSEFRONT-7EASTERN MICHIGAN DEFENSE AKR OFFENSIVE LINEn=18RETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EMU FRONT-7n=31 · 2 ROOMSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBAKRON OFFENSEFRONT-7EASTERN MICHIGAN DEFENSE AKR RUNNING BACKSn=1160% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EMU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 31 PLAYERSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEAKRON OFFENSESECONDARYEASTERN MICHIGAN DEFENSE AKR PASS CATCHERSn=23RETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EMU SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOMRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
AKR
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
EMU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+8
−25
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
AKR
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
EMU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS51.6%
61.1%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS61.6%
59.4%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.1%
0.3%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = AKR, ORANGE = EMU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2018, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE