SAT 15:00 ET|LOS ANGELES MEMORIAL COLISEUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP74|O/U61.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
26
2-2
20
53
16
4%
75
36
12.0
+5000
+37.5
HOME
42
4-0
94
99
47
59%
69
82
49.5
-100000
-37.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALSJSU26—USC42
CLOSED USC -37.5TOTAL 61.5SJSU COVERED · 68 POINTS · OVER
SJSU
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
USC
SJSU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
USC
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=8
MARKET
TOTAL61.5
SPREADUSC -37.5
IMPLIED — SJSU12.0
IMPLIED — USC49.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
72FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT1 SLOTThe two rankings disagree by 1 position on a 6-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right. The market board is 8 games because -2 carry no published total, so the two are not the same field.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
SJSURECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs3.3-8.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME-11.1
SAN JOSÉ STATE won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
USCRECORD MATCHES
9-3ACTUALvs9.1-2.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+14.1
USC won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERSAN JOSÉ STATEUSC2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DB98%Isiah RevisDB · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaylen ThomasPORTAL · WASHINGTON STATE · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJalen BainerCB · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB97%Walker EgetPORTAL · DUKE · 89% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONXavier WardQB · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE95%Danny ScuderoPORTAL · COLORADO · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLeland SmithPORTAL · UCLA · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKyri ShoelsPORTAL · UTAH · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB83%Noah McNeal-FranklinLB · 28% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJordan PollardLB · 28% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTaniela LatuLB · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB81%Steve Chavez-SotoPORTAL · UTAH · 39% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLamar RadcliffeRB · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONFloyd Chalk IVPORTAL · SOUTHERN UTAH · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
OL58%Peseti LapuahoOL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSione NomaniOL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONQuincy LikioOL · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL43%Vili TaufatofuaDL · 30% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJireh MoePORTAL · UTAH · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DBIsaiah Buxton · PORTAL ★3 · SAN DIEGO STATEBrian Dukes Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · CAL POLYAgenhart Ellis IV · PORTAL ★3 · CAL LUTHERAN1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
QBDaniel Rolovich · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TEAnthony Ivey · PORTAL ★3 · PENN STATECarson Clark · SIGNEE ★3Devin Olmande · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
LBSkylar Tiatia · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBCourshawn Hill · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLBrian Tapu · PORTAL ★3 · NEBRASKAIkinasio Tupou · PORTAL ★3 · BYULavaka Taukeiaho · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA STATE4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLJayland McGlothen · PORTAL ★3 · SACRAMENTO STATEBronx Letuligasenoa · SIGNEE ★3Joseph Terry · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · SAN JOSÉ STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
21.89 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
32.439 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
15.48 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB5959—051 OF 5 GRADED
RB5050529473 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE434354282011 OF 20 GRADED
OL43433187189 OF 18 GRADED
DL27273763149 OF 14 GRADED
LB30303983157 OF 15 GRADED
DB40406011710 OF 17 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE20th20
BLUE-CHIP RATIO5%26
RECRUITING CLASS#129 · 0/16 BC4
CLASS RANK TREND-25 · 3 CYCLES0
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 17 IN / 16 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
USCLINCOLN RILEY5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9797
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6767
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
SJSUKEN NIUMATALOLO3TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
2929
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5555
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESSJSU OFFENSEUSC OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBSAN JOSÉ STATE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEUSC DEFENSE SJSU QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USC DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 56 PLAYERS40% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLSAN JOSÉ STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7USC DEFENSE SJSU OFFENSIVE LINEn=1813% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USC FRONT-7n=34 · 2 ROOMS45% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBSAN JOSÉ STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7USC DEFENSE SJSU RUNNING BACKSn=76% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USC FRONT-72 ROOMS · 34 PLAYERS45% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556248%57%LINEBACKERSLB
0.455365%38%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TESAN JOSÉ STATE OFFENSESECONDARYUSC DEFENSE SJSU PASS CATCHERSn=2072% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USC SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM36% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
SJSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
USC
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+3
−4
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
SJSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
USC
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
SJSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
USC
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS50.3%
60.7%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS62.1%
73.0%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.0%
0.4%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = SJSU, ORANGE = USC) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE