SAT 19:00 ET|STANFORD STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP47|O/U48.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
27
1-2
17
47
47
65%
91
22
22.0
+170
+4.5
HOME
37
1-2
64
23
68
21%
45
79
26.5
-205
-4.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALHAW27—STAN37
CLOSED STAN -4.5TOTAL 48.5STAN COVERED · 64 POINTS · OVER
HAW
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
STAN
HAW
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
STAN
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=8
MARKET
TOTAL48.5
SPREADSTAN -4.5
IMPLIED — HAW22.0
IMPLIED — STAN26.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
40FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT0 SLOTSBoth rankings put this game in the same place on the week's board. The market board is 8 games because -2 carry no published total, so the two are not the same field.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
HAWRECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs7.3-4.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+5.0
HAWAI'I won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
STANRECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs3.1-8.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-10.3
STANFORD won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERHAWAI'ISTANFORD2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DB73%Peter ManumaDB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKilinahe Mendiola-JensenDB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaheim Wilson-JonesDB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL66%De'Jon BentonDL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONQwyn WilliamsDL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJackie Johnson IIIDL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB65%Landon SimsRB · 55% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChristian VaughnRB · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE57%Karsyn PupunuWR · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJackson HarrisPORTAL · LSU · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrandon WhitePORTAL · KANSAS STATE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB55%Jalen SmithLB · 42% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGiovanni IovinoLB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
OL53%James MilovaleOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZhen SoteloOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKuao PeihopaOL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB21%Luke WeaverPORTAL · SAN JOSÉ STATE · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DBJeremiah Hughes · PORTAL ★3 · MICHIGAN STATEJoenel Figueroa · PORTAL ★3 · WEST GEORGIAMarquis Richardson · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLOzzy Pollard · PORTAL ★3 · MARIAN COLLEGEOzzy Pollard · PORTAL ★3 · MARIANAdam Tomczyk · PORTAL ★3 · WEST VIRGINIA1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
RBDeVon Rice · PORTAL ★3 · KANSAS STATEREFILLED
WR/TETre' Griffiths · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA STATECarson Brown · PORTAL ★3 · IOWA STATEDevin Alves · PORTAL ★3 · VIRGINIA TECH3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
OLKhalil Walker · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH FLORIDALipe Moala · PORTAL ★3 · OREGONAndrew Price · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
QBBjorn Jurgensen · PORTAL ★3 · VIRGINIAMaika Eugenio · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · HAWAI'I
CARRIED COMPOSITE
38.545 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
47.067 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
32.628 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB3333499542 OF 4 GRADED
RB4747184663 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE373737312514 OF 25 GRADED
OL44442080196 OF 19 GRADED
DL545426521716 OF 17 GRADED
LB40405596135 OF 13 GRADED
DB45452476207 OF 20 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE17th17
BLUE-CHIP RATIO3%16
RECRUITING CLASS#124 · 0/17 BC8
CLASS RANK TREND-8 · 3 CYCLES34
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 16 IN / 9 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 5th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
STANTAVITA PRITCHARDFIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
HAWTIMMY CHANG5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9999
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4545
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESHAW OFFENSESTAN OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBHAWAI'I OFFENSEFULL DEFENSESTANFORD DEFENSE HAW QUARTERBACKSn=45% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
STAN DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 55 PLAYERS9% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLHAWAI'I OFFENSEFRONT-7STANFORD DEFENSE HAW OFFENSIVE LINEn=1920% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
STAN FRONT-7n=33 · 2 ROOMS0% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBHAWAI'I OFFENSEFRONT-7STANFORD DEFENSE HAW RUNNING BACKSn=654% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
STAN FRONT-72 ROOMS · 33 PLAYERS0% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.5544100%8%LINEBACKERSLB
0.4537100%14%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEHAWAI'I OFFENSESECONDARYSTANFORD DEFENSE HAW PASS CATCHERSn=2569% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
STAN SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM17% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
HAW
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
STAN
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−32
+27
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
HAW
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
STAN
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
HAW
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
STAN
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS40.0%
49.6%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS78.8%
79.1%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.0%
2.1%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = HAW, ORANGE = STAN) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE