SCOUTTEAM
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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 1›MEM @ UNLV›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
MEM @ UNLV74
NMSU @ FSU61
UNC @ TCU59
SJSU @ USC59
NCSU @ UVA59
HAW @ STAN57
JXST @ NDSU0
SAC @ EMU0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
MEMPHIS
UNLV
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 22:00 ET|ALLEGIANT STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP8|O/U55.5COLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
69FPI
MEMAACMEMPHIS
27
2-1
52
70
30
6%
18
36
25.8
+164
+4.0
HOME
—AP
87FPI
UNLVMWCUNLV
21
1-2
60
81
21
15%
71
28
29.8
-198
-4.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALMEM27—UNLV21
CLOSED UNLV -4.0TOTAL 55.5MEM COVERED · 48 POINTS · UNDER
MEM
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
UNLV
27
POINTS
21
418
TOTAL YARDS
460
223 (15-26)
PASSING
291 (25-38)
195 (34)
RUSHING
169 (41)
20
FIRST DOWNS
23
3-11
THIRD DOWN
3-15
0-0
FOURTH DOWN
2-5
24:51
TIME OF POSS.
35:09
7-70
PENALTIES
7-75
1
TURNOVERS
0
6
SACKS
1
1
QB HURRIES
1
MEM
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
UNLV
0.305
SEASON 0.380
EPA / PLAY
0.125
SEASON 0.106
47.5%
SEASON 44.8%
SUCCESS RATE
34.6%
SEASON 36.1%
20.3%
SEASON 21.5%
EXPLOSIVE RATE
17.9%
SEASON 15.1%
6.81
SEASON 8.40
YARDS / PLAY
5.99
SEASON 5.48
0.125
SEASON 0.283
EPA ALLOWED
0.305
SEASON 0.188
34.6%
SEASON 45.0%
SUCCESS ALLOWED
47.5%
SEASON 42.0%
17.9%
SEASON 20.1%
EXPLOSIVE ALLOWED
20.3%
SEASON 19.0%
17.6%
SEASON 13.1%
STUFF RATE
6.1%
SEASON 12.9%
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=8
MARKET
TOTAL55.5
SPREADUNLV -4.0
IMPLIED — MEM25.8
IMPLIED — UNLV29.8
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
74FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
BY MARKET TOTAL
2 / 8
BY ENVIRONMENT
1 / 6
DISAGREEMENT1 SLOTThe two rankings disagree by 1 position on a 6-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right. The market board is 8 games because -2 carry no published total, so the two are not the same field.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × FAST
MEM PACE31.4s
18
UNLV PACE26.0s
71
SHARED PACE28.7s
45
PLAY VOLUME127
45
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
MEM56CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
88
PROE
60
TEMPO
18
EXPLOSIVE88p
88
PROE60p
60
TEMPO18p
18
UNLV51CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
37
PROE
44
TEMPO
71
EXPLOSIVE37p
37
PROE44p
44
TEMPO71p
71
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
MEMRECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs8.8-3.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+12.1
MEMPHIS won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
UNLVRECORD OVERSTATES
10-3ACTUALvs8.2-4.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+7.1
UNLV won 10 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 8.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERMEMPHISUNLV2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Brendon LewisQB · 91% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAJ HillPORTAL · ARKANSAS · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB100%Greg Desrosiers Jr.RB · 42% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSutton SmithPORTAL · ARKANSAS · 33% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONFrank PeasantRB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB98%Everett Roussaw Jr.LB · 31% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSam BrumfieldLB · 28% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDeMarco WardPORTAL · PITTSBURGH · 26% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB95%Drue WattsDB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKamari WilsonPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChris BracyPORTAL · MICHIGAN · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION9 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE89%Cortez Braham Jr.WR · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJamari HawkinsPORTAL · ARKANSAS · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChristian RossPORTAL · MIAMI (OH) · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION9 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL89%William Whitlow Jr.DL · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJalen BellDL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONPooda WalkerDL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION9 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL61%Malachi BrelandOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChris AdamsOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTravis BurkeDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBMarcus Stokes · PORTAL ★3 · WEST FLORIDAAir Noland · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH CAROLINAREFILLED
RBDallan Hayden · PORTAL ★3 · COLORADOJordan Thompson · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
LBElijah Fernandez · SIGNEE ★3Kadan Spratling · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBIan Foster · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTHERN MISSEllis Ellis Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · AUSTIN PEAYDilan Williamson · PORTAL ★3 · CONCORDIA UNIVERSITY ST PAUL3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TETychaun Chapman · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTHERN MISSJaylin Taylor · SIGNEE ★3Zechariah Jenkins · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
DLJabari Ishmael · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTHERN MISSEric Thomas · PORTAL ★3 · SYRACUSEMarshall Smith · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
OLCarde Smith · PORTAL ★3 · COLORADORichard Thigpen · SIGNEE ★3Eddie Alford · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · MEMPHIS
CARRIED COMPOSITE
10.82 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
18.415 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
5.81 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB575764051 OF 5 GRADED
RB474743063 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE42423614199 OF 19 GRADED
OL3333309167 OF 16 GRADED
DL555557142010 OF 20 GRADED
LB5656550145 OF 14 GRADED
DB44444920227 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE52nd52
BLUE-CHIP RATIO10%48
RECRUITING CLASS#72 · 0/21 BC47
CLASS RANK TREND-4 · 3 CYCLES42
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+2 · 51 IN / 47 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
UNLVDAN MULLEN2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5757
PACE
4141
PASS RATE
4747
EXPLOSIVENESS
9595
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5151
HAVOC
2626
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
MEMCHARLES HUFFFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3232
PACE
6363
PASS RATE
3232
EXPLOSIVENESS
4848
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1515
HAVOC
9090
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESMEM OFFENSEUNLV OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBMEMPHIS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
55OF 138
TAL
64
PERF
57
RET
0
NATIONAL
126OF 136
RET
25
FULL DEFENSEUNLV DEFENSE
MEM QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MARCUS STOKESQBPORTAL · WEST FLORIDA
513RD YR3764★3+37
AIR NOLANDQBPORTAL · SOUTH CAROLINA
382ND YR664★3—
DENZEL GARDNERQBPORTAL · SOUTHERN MISS
351ST YR—45★3—
GAVIN OWENSQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—52★3—
GRANT TROUTMANQBRET
301ST YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNLV DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 48 PLAYERS31% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4156%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
3450%15%
SECONDARYDB
4781%17%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLMEMPHIS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
128OF 138
TAL
30
PERF
33
RET
9
DL
102OF 138
DL RET
56
LB
117OF 138
LB RET
50
FRONT-7UNLV DEFENSE
MEM OFFENSIVE LINEn=1691% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
SKYLER GRANTOLPORTAL · OLD DOMINION
604TH YR8745★3+19
PHILLIP GRAYOLPORTAL · RICHMOND
514TH YR3911★2—
BRIAN GRANTOLPORTAL · TENNESSEE
494TH YR—17★3—
KOBY KEENUMOLPORTAL · MISSISSIPPI STATE
493RD YR—77★3—
MAARTEN WOUDSMAOLTRUE FR
484TH YR8945★3+1
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNLV FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS46% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ELIAH LOGODLRET
541ST YR3922★3—
KAL-EL TOGAFAUDLRET
521ST YR3340★3—
POE PURCELLDLTRUE FR
521ST YR3155★3—
KENJI SCANLANDERET
522ND YR3122★3—
HERB GRAYDLPORTAL · TENNESSEE
522ND YR—64★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBMEMPHIS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
95OF 138
TAL
43
PERF
47
RET
0
DL
102OF 138
DL RET
56
LB
117OF 138
LB RET
50
FRONT-7UNLV DEFENSE
MEM RUNNING BACKSn=6100% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JAYLIN CARTERRBPORTAL · SOUTHERN MISS
602ND YR5637★3+23
MANNY COVEYRBPORTAL · CINCINNATI
523RD YR5645★3+27
DALLAN HAYDENRBPORTAL · COLORADO
474TH YR9364★3-32
ERIC PERRYRBTRUE FR
351ST YR—76★3—
JORDAN THOMPSONRBTRUE FR
351ST YR——★3—
SHOW ALL 6
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNLV FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS47% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554156%0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.453450%15%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEMEMPHIS OFFENSE
NATIONAL
109OF 138
TAL
36
PERF
42
RET
14
DB
99OF 138
DB RET
81
SECONDARYUNLV DEFENSE
MEM PASS CATCHERSn=1986% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TYCHAUN CHAPMANWRPORTAL · SOUTHERN MISS
554TH YR7664★3+28
STONKA BURNSIDEWRPORTAL · MISSISSIPPI STATE
522ND YR3928★3—
JEMYRI DAVISWRPORTAL · KANSAS STATE
513RD YR2745★3—
JERMANE HAYESWRPORTAL · SOUTHERN MISS
492ND YR2659★3—
BRADY KLUSEWRRET
483RD YR7244★3+15
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNLV SECONDARYn=18 · 1 ROOM19% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
AVERY HELMDBTRUE FR
564TH YR8892★4-22
TRE FULTONDBRET
512ND YR6845★3+46
TONY-LOUIS NKUBADBTRUE FR
502ND YR3881★3—
MUMU BIN-WAHADDBRET
494TH YR9045★3-13
QUANDARIUS KEYESDBRET
494TH YR68—UNR+14
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
MEM
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UNLV
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
53.5
47.0
— OFFENSE
57.4
49.6
— DEFENSE
49.5
44.3
SP+ OVERALL
0.4
-2.7
FPI
-0.2
-5.1
ELO
1526
1480
TALENT
670
696
PRODUCTION
52
61
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−4
−14
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.10
0.14
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
MEM
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UNLV
OFF EFFICIENCY
72
83
DEF EFFICIENCY
56
24
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
76
90
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
32
21
FINISHING DRIVES
84
81
FIELD POSITION
44
69
TURNOVER MARGIN
82
58
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
MEM
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UNLV
PASS RATE
39.5%
47.1%
PACE
31.4s
26.0s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
67.7%
58.3%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
58.3%
58.0%
PLAYS / GAME
57.3
69.3
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
1.4%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = MEM, ORANGE = UNLV) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE