SAT 19:00 ET|VETERANS MEMORIAL STADIUM (AL)NONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP15|O/U53.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
21
0-2
15
1
5
58%
51
18
18.3
+725
+16.5
HOME
24
2-0
31
10
44
35%
51
34
34.8
-1300
-16.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALSHSU21—TROY24
CLOSED TROY -16.5TOTAL 53.0SHSU COVERED · 45 POINTS · UNDER
SHSU
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
TROY
SHSU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
TROY
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=43
MARKET
TOTAL53.0
SPREADTROY -16.5
IMPLIED — SHSU18.3
IMPLIED — TROY34.8
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
43FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT10 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 10 positions on a 43-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
SHSURECORD MATCHES
2-10ACTUALvs1.7-10.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-20.1
SAM HOUSTON won 2 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 1.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TROYRECORD OVERSTATES
8-5ACTUALvs6.5-6.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME-0.2
TROY won 8 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 6.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERSAM HOUSTONTROY2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
OL95%Rhett LarsonOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKolt DieterichOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLuke EckardtOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB68%Emon AllenDB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAlonzo Edwards Jr.DB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCJ BrownDB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB67%Hunter WatsonQB · 48% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMabrey MettauerQB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
LB64%Antavious FishLB · 35% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCJ JohnsonLB · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaMair DiazPORTAL · TEMPLE · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE49%Malik PhillipsWR · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAustin SmithTE · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONQua'Vez HumphreysPORTAL · WESTERN KENTUCKY · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL43%Christopher Eaton Jr.DE · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZeiqui LawtonPORTAL · WESTERN KENTUCKY · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONQuardale PattDL · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB28%Elijah GreenRB · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
OLDenell Nix Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · APP STATEJosiah Chenault · PORTAL ★3 · KENNESAW STATEElijah Collins · PORTAL ★3 · WESTERN CAROLINA2 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
DBIshmel Atkins · PORTAL ★3 · ELONWilliam Davis · PORTAL ★3 · WEST VIRGINIACJ June · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
QBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
LBElijah Groves · PORTAL ★3 · NC STATEStacy Bey · PORTAL ★3 · ARIZONABrian Bates · PORTAL ★3 · DELAWARE STATE1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
WR/TEKyan Berry-Johnson · PORTAL ★3 · WISCONSINMax Whisner · PORTAL ★3 · AKRONJack Merryman · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DLJayden Fry · PORTAL ★3 · BOSTON COLLEGEJarra Anderson · PORTAL ★3 · ARIZONAJustin Terrell · PORTAL ★3 · NC STATE3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBKaden Winkfield · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · SAM HOUSTON
CARRIED COMPOSITE
37.142 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
31.035 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
40.451 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB37376610051 OF 5 GRADED
RB44441710072 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE3939365321CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL303023017CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL40405156158 OF 15 GRADED
LB35354040126 OF 12 GRADED
DB393937582210 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE15th15
BLUE-CHIP RATIO2%11
RECRUITING CLASS#126 · 0/16 BC6
CLASS RANK TREND-2 · 3 CYCLES46
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 20 IN / 15 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
TROYGERAD PARKER3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3636
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6060
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
SHSUPHIL LONGO2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6565
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8383
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESSHSU OFFENSETROY OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBSAM HOUSTON OFFENSEFULL DEFENSETROY DEFENSE SHSU QUARTERBACKSn=50% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TROY DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 48 PLAYERS41% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLSAM HOUSTON OFFENSEFRONT-7TROY DEFENSE SHSU OFFENSIVE LINEn=17100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TROY FRONT-7n=26 · 2 ROOMS66% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBSAM HOUSTON OFFENSEFRONT-7TROY DEFENSE SHSU RUNNING BACKSn=70% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TROY FRONT-72 ROOMS · 26 PLAYERS65% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555727%15%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TESAM HOUSTON OFFENSESECONDARYTROY DEFENSE SHSU PASS CATCHERSn=2147% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TROY SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM21% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
SHSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TROY
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+15
+25
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
SHSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TROY
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
SHSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TROY
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS40.5%
65.9%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS79.1%
61.4%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.0%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = SHSU, ORANGE = TROY) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE