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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 1›CNSU @ GRAM›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
SMU @ FSU71
UNT @ IU69
BC @ CIN68
CLEM @ LSU68
LIB @ JMU66
BOIS @ ORE66
MOST @ TA&M64
UNLV @ HAW64
BALL @ OSU63
MIA @ STAN62
BAY @ AUB61
MRSH @ PSU61
SJSU @ EMU60
UTEP @ OU60
M-OH @ PITT60
WMU @ MICH60
LOU @ MISS60
WIS @ ND60
FIU @ USF59
COLO @ GT58
NIU @ IOWA58
WYO @ CSU58
FAU @ FLA58
WSU @ WASH58
OHIO @ NEB57
ULM @ MSST57
UCLA @ CAL57
TULN @ DUKE56
TOL @ MSU55
AKR @ WAKE54
FRES @ USC54
ECU @ ALA53
UAB @ ILL52
KENT @ SC51
TXST @ TEX51
ARST @ MEM50
WKU @ NEV50
MASS @ RUTG49
ORST @ HOU46
OKST @ TLSA44
CMU @ UNM43
CCU @ WVU35
SHSU @ TROY33
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
CENTRAL STATE
GRAMBLING
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2026
SAT 19:00 ET|EDDIE ROBINSON STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
—FPI
CNSUSIACCENTRAL STATE
26
1-2
0
0
0
0%
0
—
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
—FPI
GRAMSWACGRAMBLING
48
2-1
0
0
0
0%
0
—
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
FINALCNSU26—GRAM48
CNSU
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
GRAM
26
POINTS
48
386
TOTAL YARDS
644
248 (15-28)
PASSING
283 (19-28)
138 (32)
RUSHING
361 (40)
18
FIRST DOWNS
26
7-13
THIRD DOWN
9-12
0-1
FOURTH DOWN
1-1
26:49
TIME OF POSS.
33:11
4-27
PENALTIES
4-38
1
TURNOVERS
3
0
SACKS
2
2
QB HURRIES
9
CNSU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
GRAM
0.335
SEASON 0.335
EPA / PLAY
0.565
SEASON 0.311
39.0%
SEASON 39.0%
SUCCESS RATE
58.2%
SEASON 45.7%
15.3%
SEASON 15.3%
EXPLOSIVE RATE
25.4%
SEASON 18.1%
6.24
SEASON 6.24
YARDS / PLAY
9.61
SEASON 7.06
0.565
SEASON 0.565
EPA ALLOWED
0.335
SEASON 0.353
58.2%
SEASON 58.2%
SUCCESS ALLOWED
39.0%
SEASON 45.4%
25.4%
SEASON 25.4%
EXPLOSIVE ALLOWED
15.3%
SEASON 18.4%
17.9%
SEASON 17.9%
STUFF RATE
26.7%
SEASON 21.8%
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT0 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2026 · FULL SEASON
No 2026 record, and no earlier season to carry forward for these teams.
TEAM LEDGERCENTRAL STATEGRAMBLING2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
RB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
WR/TE0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
OL0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
DL0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
LB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
DB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
RBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
WR/TENO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
OLNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
DLNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
LBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
DBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · CENTRAL STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
0.00 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
0.00 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
0.00 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB————0NO GRADING EVIDENCE
RB————0NO GRADING EVIDENCE
WR/TE————0NO GRADING EVIDENCE
OL————0NO GRADING EVIDENCE
DL————0NO GRADING EVIDENCE
LB————0NO GRADING EVIDENCE
DB————0NO GRADING EVIDENCE
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
GRAM—FIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
CNSU—FIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESCNSU OFFENSEGRAM OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBCENTRAL STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
—
TAL
—
PERF
—
RET
—
NATIONAL
—
RET
—
FULL DEFENSEGRAMBLING DEFENSE
CNSU QUARTERBACKSn=0RETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
QUARTERBACKS BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
GRAM DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 18 PLAYERSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
——13%
LINEBACKERSLB
——0%
SECONDARYDB
——0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLCENTRAL STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
—
TAL
—
PERF
—
RET
—
DL
—
DL RET
—
LB
—
LB RET
—
FRONT-7GRAMBLING DEFENSE
CNSU OFFENSIVE LINEn=0RETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
GRAM FRONT-7n=11 · 2 ROOMSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JON HORTONDERET
474TH YR——★4—
COREY AMOSDEPORTAL · OLE MISS
361ST YR——★3—
MARKEIS SYKESDLRET
—3RD YR——UNR—
KILAS FRANCISDTRET
—2ND YR——UNR—
JAYDEN SCOTTDERET
—2ND YR——★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBCENTRAL STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
—
TAL
—
PERF
—
RET
—
DL
—
DL RET
—
LB
—
LB RET
—
FRONT-7GRAMBLING DEFENSE
CNSU RUNNING BACKSn=0RETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
BACKFIELD BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
GRAM FRONT-72 ROOMS · 11 PLAYERSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.55——13%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.45——0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TECENTRAL STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
—
TAL
—
PERF
—
RET
—
DB
—
DB RET
—
SECONDARYGRAMBLING DEFENSE
CNSU PASS CATCHERSn=0RETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
PASS CATCHERS BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
GRAM SECONDARYn=7 · 1 ROOMRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KATREVRICK BANKSCBRET
351ST YR——★3—
BEN DRAKEDBTRUE FR
303RD YR——UNR—
KYRAN MCCONNELLDBRET
—3RD YR——UNR—
JALEN GUILLARDDBRET
—3RD YR——UNR—
CHRISTEN WILLIAMSDBRET
—4TH YR——UNR—
SHOW ALL 7
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = CNSU, ORANGE = GRAM) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE