MON 19:30 ET|DOAK CAMPBELL STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP7|O/U54.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
27
2-1
78
76
71
57%
56
53
28.8
-155
-3.0
HOME
24
1-2
85
96
58
40%
48
93
25.8
+130
+3.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALSMU27—FSU24
CLOSED SMU -3.0TOTAL 54.5SPREAD PUSHED · 51 POINTS · UNDER
SMU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
FSU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=43
MARKET
TOTAL54.5
SPREADSMU -3.0
IMPLIED — SMU28.8
IMPLIED — FSU25.8
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
58FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT4 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 4 positions on a 43-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
SMURECORD UNDERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs9.0-3.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+12.3
SMU won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.0. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
FSURECORD UNDERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs8.7-3.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-3.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME+11.0
FLORIDA STATE won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERSMUFLORIDA STATE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB87%T.J. HardenRB · 57% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChris Johnson Jr.PORTAL · CLEMSON · 26% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL74%Isaiah SmithDE · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCameron RobertsonDE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTerry WebbDT · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE70%Matthew HibnerDRAFTED · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRomello BrinsonWR · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJordan HudsonWR · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB56%Ahmaad MosesS · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDeuce HarmonCB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONIsaiah NwokobiaS · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL36%Savion ByrdOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLogan ParrOL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB31%Zakye BarkerPORTAL · NORTH TEXAS · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJustin MedlockPORTAL · BOSTON COLLEGE · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDJ WarnerPORTAL · WASHINGTON STATE · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBKendrick Raphael · PORTAL ★4 · CALIFORNIAChristian Rhodes · SIGNEE ★4EJ Kelly · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
DLMarques White · PORTAL ★3 · MASSACHUSETTSHudson Woods · SIGNEE ★3Amontre Harris · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
WR/TEYannick Smith · PORTAL ★4 · EAST CAROLINATheo Melin Ohrstrom · PORTAL ★4 · TEXAS A&MRandy Pittman Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA STATE4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBJayvon Thomas · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS A&MDeuce Gilbert · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLDrew Evers · SIGNEE ★4Evan Goodwin · SIGNEE ★4Sam Utu · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBKenneth Goodwin III · SIGNEE ★3I'Zayah Young · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
QBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · SMU
CARRIED COMPOSITE
45.867 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
52.576 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
42.458 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB5353461005CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
RB49499596CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
WR/TE6262833223CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL636387019CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL4444651519CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
LB6060656910CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DB5050584318CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE78th78
BLUE-CHIP RATIO31%82
RECRUITING CLASS#32 · 6/21 BC77
CLASS RANK TREND+75 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+3 · 15 IN / 25 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 5th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
FSUMIKE NORVELL7TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5252
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7070
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
SMURHETT LASHLEE5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7575
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4848
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESSMU OFFENSEFSU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBSMU OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEFLORIDA STATE DEFENSE SMU QUARTERBACKSn=50% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FSU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 51 PLAYERS44% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLSMU OFFENSEFRONT-7FLORIDA STATE DEFENSE SMU OFFENSIVE LINEn=19100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FSU FRONT-7n=31 · 2 ROOMS45% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBSMU OFFENSEFRONT-7FLORIDA STATE DEFENSE SMU RUNNING BACKSn=691% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FSU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 31 PLAYERS46% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555666%35%LINEBACKERSLB
0.455739%14%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TESMU OFFENSESECONDARYFLORIDA STATE DEFENSE SMU PASS CATCHERSn=2368% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FSU SECONDARYn=20 · 1 ROOM43% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
SMU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FSU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE 202561.2
48.1
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−10
+16
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
SMU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FSU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
SMU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FSU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS55.5%
67.4%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS76.9%
66.7%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.5%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = SMU, ORANGE = FSU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE