SAT 19:00 ET|JOAN C. EDWARDS STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP9|O/U55.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
26
2-1
21
14
4
33%
23
10
21.5
+400
+12.5
HOME
28
2-1
30
19
25
99%
18
9
34.0
-535
-12.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALMTSU26—MRSH28
CLOSED MRSH -12.5TOTAL 55.5MTSU COVERED · 54 POINTS · UNDER
MTSU
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
MRSH
MTSU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
MRSH
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 2 FIELD n=49
MARKET
TOTAL55.5
SPREADMRSH -12.5
IMPLIED — MTSU21.5
IMPLIED — MRSH34.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
44FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT25 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 25 positions on a 47-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right. The market board is 49 games because -2 carry no published total, so the two are not the same field.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
MTSURECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs3.8-8.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME-8.5
MIDDLE TENNESSEE won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
MRSHRECORD UNDERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs6.1-5.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME+0.5
MARSHALL won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERMIDDLE TENNESSEEMARSHALL2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB86%Jekail MiddlebrookPORTAL · VIRGINIA · 67% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRickey Hunt Jr.PORTAL · FAIRMONT STATE · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
OL84%Mateo GuevaraOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJoseph HabinowskiOL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJacob OttsOL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB71%Nicholas VattiatoQB · 71% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL71%Shakai WoodsPORTAL · ARKANSAS STATE · 36% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDamonte SmithNT · 35% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB70%Parker HughesDRAFTED · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAnthony BynumPORTAL · GEORGIA SOUTHERN · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrandon BucknerLB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE63%Hunter TiptonPORTAL · MEMPHIS · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNahzae CoxPORTAL · KANSAS · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMyles ButlerWR · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB58%Abdul MuhammadCB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDe'Arre McDonaldCB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJuwon GastonS · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBAntonio Martin Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · KANSAS STATERobert Lathon Jr. · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLBrennan Smith · PORTAL ★3 · MISSISSIPPI STATEReese Tripp · PORTAL ★3 · MINNESOTAChris Moreno · PORTAL ★3 · MONMOUTH3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
QBRocco Williams · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLJustin Bodford · PORTAL ★3 · MISSOURIJonas Jimerson · SIGNEE ★3Jayden Arenas-Michel · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
LBAshton Taylor · PORTAL ★3 · JACKSON STATEShane Rochelle · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TEMarkus Allen · PORTAL ★3 · MISSISSIPPI STATEHogan Wasson · PORTAL ★3 · CENTRAL MISSOURIBryson Maddox · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBJames Johnson · PORTAL ★3 · USCRicky Lee III · PORTAL ★3 · SACRAMENTO STATEDyson McCutcheon · PORTAL ★3 · WASHINGTON2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · MIDDLE TENNESSEE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
31.927 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
27.926 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
34.636 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB56565210061 OF 6 GRADED
RB5151461084 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE4141253122CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL313132015CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL54543177135 OF 13 GRADED
LB38385961167 OF 16 GRADED
DB303037422210 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE21st21
BLUE-CHIP RATIO7%33
RECRUITING CLASS#119 · 0/14 BC11
CLASS RANK TREND0 · 3 CYCLES50
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 19 IN / 18 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
MRSHTONY GIBSON2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1313
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
MTSUDEREK MASON3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9696
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6666
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESMTSU OFFENSEMRSH OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBMIDDLE TENNESSEE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEMARSHALL DEFENSE MTSU QUARTERBACKSn=60% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MRSH DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 49 PLAYERS59% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLMIDDLE TENNESSEE OFFENSEFRONT-7MARSHALL DEFENSE MTSU OFFENSIVE LINEn=15100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MRSH FRONT-7n=27 · 2 ROOMS54% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBMIDDLE TENNESSEE OFFENSEFRONT-7MARSHALL DEFENSE MTSU RUNNING BACKSn=890% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MRSH FRONT-72 ROOMS · 27 PLAYERS51% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555022%6%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEMIDDLE TENNESSEE OFFENSESECONDARYMARSHALL DEFENSE MTSU PASS CATCHERSn=2269% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MRSH SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM64% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
MTSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MRSH
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+12
−1
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
MTSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MRSH
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
MTSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MRSH
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS52.0%
61.6%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS75.4%
56.6%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.0%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = MTSU, ORANGE = MRSH) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE