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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 4›LIB @ CCU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
TA&M @ LSU76
OU @ UGA75
ORE @ USC72
LIB @ CCU0
ARMY @ TEM0
NAVY @ UAB0
NU @ IU0
CLEM @ CAL0
UTAH @ ISU0
USF @ BGSU0
APP @ NCSU0
UCLA @ MD0
JMU @ ODU0
CSU @ UTSA0
WIS @ PSU0
WAKE @ LOU0
SHSU @ TTU0
SC @ ALA0
NIU @ GAST0
MIZ @ MSST0
BALL @ KENT0
MISS @ FLA0
BOIS @ WMU0
IOWA @ MICH0
FAU @ ULM0
CONN @ M-OH0
KSU @ CIN0
SDSU @ TOL0
MOST @ SMU0
VT @ BC0
UNLV @ AKR0
ILL @ OSU0
AF @ NEV0
VAN @ AUB0
MINN @ WASH0
MASS @ SAC0
HOU @ GASO0
USM @ TULN0
COLO @ BAY0
NEB @ MSU0
TCU @ UCF0
DEL @ UVA0
UL @ CLT0
ND @ PUR0
OKST @ WVU0
TEX @ TENN0
USA @ UK0
HAW @ WYO0
UNM @ NMSU0
CMU @ MIA0
KENN @ ARST0
MTSU @ JXST0
ARIZ @ WSU0
TROY @ USU0
TLSA @ ARK0
ORST @ UTEP0
RICE @ FRES0
GT @ STAN0
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
LIBERTY
COASTAL CAROLINA
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
THU 19:30 ET|BROOKS STADIUM (SC)NONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP19|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
108FPI
LIBCUSALIBERTY
1-1
43
30
4
38%
40
2
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
111FPI
CCUSBCCOASTAL CAROLINA
1-1
24
32
23
15%
46
28
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
LIB35CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
50
PROE
14
TEMPO
40
EXPLOSIVE50p
50
PROE14p
14
TEMPO40p
40
CCU45CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
69
PROE
19
TEMPO
46
EXPLOSIVE69p
69
PROE19p
19
TEMPO46p
46
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
LIBRECORD UNDERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs5.8-6.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME-0.9
LIBERTY won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
CCURECORD OVERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs3.4-8.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+2.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-11.1
COASTAL CAROLINA won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERLIBERTYCOASTAL CAROLINA2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DB96%Damond HarmonCB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChristian BodnarPORTAL · OKLAHOMA STATE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAmarian WilliamsCB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE71%Jacob JenkinsTE · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDonte Lee Jr.PORTAL · TEXAS TECH · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONReese SmithWR · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB49%Evan DickensPORTAL · BOSTON COLLEGE · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONVaughn BluePORTAL · CENTRAL MICHIGAN · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCaden WilliamsRB · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL46%Bryce DixonDT · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCJ Bazile Jr.DL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDonovan DozierPORTAL · NORTHWESTERN STATE · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL29%Harrison HayesOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB26%Joseph CarterLB · 26% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB16%Michael MerdingerQB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DBAshton McShane · PORTAL ★3 · BOSTON COLLEGED-Icey Hopkins · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIA STATEAshton Whitner · PORTAL ★3 · BALL STATE4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEMakai Jackson · PORTAL ★3 · INDIANARefeno Vangates · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH CAROLINA CENTRALJakobe Dejesus · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBKam Davis · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA STATEKanye Udoh · PORTAL ★3 · ARIZONA STATECam Wood · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DLJohn Custis · PORTAL ★3 · EMORY & HENRY COLLEGEJohn Custis · PORTAL ★3 · EMORY & HENRYXavier Reid · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
OLAlex Birchmeier · PORTAL ★3 · PENN STATEJude Foster · PORTAL ★3 · OLE MISSMalcolm Gaston · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBEllis Alloway · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
QBDeshawn Purdie · PORTAL ★3 · WAKE FORESTJachin Davis · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · LIBERTY
CARRIED COMPOSITE
41.554 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
47.468 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
38.245 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB383828051 OF 5 GRADED
RB47476632115 OF 11 GRADED
WR/TE4646302519CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL565624019CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL26264162165 OF 16 GRADED
LB272728100105 OF 10 GRADED
DB434344382010 OF 20 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE43rd43
BLUE-CHIP RATIO6%30
RECRUITING CLASS#109 · 0/17 BC19
CLASS RANK TREND-4 · 3 CYCLES42
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 26 IN / 19 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 4th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
CCURYAN BEARDFIRST SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8888
PACE
2626
PASS RATE
8989
EXPLOSIVENESS
100100
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
77
HAVOC
2929
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
LIBJAMEY CHADWELL4TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
77
PACE
6666
PASS RATE
44
EXPLOSIVENESS
1818
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6969
HAVOC
5757
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESLIB OFFENSECCU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBLIBERTY OFFENSE
NATIONAL
115OF 138
TAL
28
PERF
38
RET
0
NATIONAL
106OF 136
RET
13
FULL DEFENSECOASTAL CAROLINA DEFENSE
LIB QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ETHAN VASKOQBRET
524TH YR8628★3-6
JAYLEN HENDERSONQBPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA
524TH YR5017★3+8
DESHAWN PURDIEQBPORTAL · WAKE FOREST
433RD YR6928★3+22
ETHAN HOUCKQBRET
491ST YR—77★3—
JACHIN DAVISQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—54★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CCU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 49 PLAYERS77% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
4418%13%
LINEBACKERSLB
497%0%
SECONDARYDB
5331%4%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLLIBERTY OFFENSE
NATIONAL
52OF 138
TAL
24
PERF
56
RET
0
DL
94OF 138
DL RET
18
LB
64OF 138
LB RET
7
FRONT-7COASTAL CAROLINA DEFENSE
LIB OFFENSIVE LINEn=19100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JOEP ENGBERSOLRET
883RD YR—0★2+48 2025
AARON FENIMOREOLRET
613RD YR—49★3+30 2025
AUSTIN ANDERSONOLRET
543RD YR—13★2—
D.J. GETHOLRET
503RD YR—28★3-31 2025
ALEX BIRCHMEIEROLPORTAL · PENN STATE
503RD YR—45★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CCU FRONT-7n=26 · 2 ROOMS86% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MITCHELL TONEYDLPORTAL · MISSOURI STATE
733RD YR5845★3+47
AHMAD POOLEDLPORTAL · MISSOURI STATE
684TH YR68—UNR-21
DJ WESOLAKDLPORTAL · MISSOURI STATE
633RD YR7428★3+6
IBRAHIM DIAWARADERET
544TH YR6728★3+40
XZAVIER BOOKERDLPORTAL · ALABAMA A&M
523RD YR—45★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBLIBERTY OFFENSE
NATIONAL
99OF 138
TAL
66
PERF
47
RET
32
DL
94OF 138
DL RET
18
LB
64OF 138
LB RET
7
FRONT-7COASTAL CAROLINA DEFENSE
LIB RUNNING BACKSn=1168% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
KANYE UDOHRBPORTAL · ARIZONA STATE
583RD YR—45★3+17 2025
TERRON KELLMANRBPORTAL · WYOMING
544TH YR—46★3+5 2025
JAYLON COLEMANRBRET
542ND YR2882★3+31
PEYTON JONESRBPORTAL · DUKE
423RD YR7072★3+4
KAM DAVISRBPORTAL · FLORIDA STATE
402ND YR5764★3-54
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CCU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 26 PLAYERS87% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554418%13%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.45497%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TELIBERTY OFFENSE
NATIONAL
86OF 138
TAL
30
PERF
46
RET
25
DB
60OF 138
DB RET
31
SECONDARYCOASTAL CAROLINA DEFENSE
LIB PASS CATCHERSn=1975% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MAKAI JACKSONWRPORTAL · INDIANA
614TH YR9464★3+23
CALEB RYANTERET
524TH YR36—UNR—
JON MONTEIROWRRET
522ND YR——UNR—
ZEKE WIMBUSHTETRUE FR
483RD YR2732★3—
LAKELSEY JOHNSON JR.TEPORTAL · BAYLOR
474TH YR6028★3-17
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CCU SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM69% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JA'MARION WAYNECBRET
804TH YR7689★4-21
TRAVIS ROMANCBTRUE FR
503RD YR11—UNR—
JALEN LEESTRUE FR
494TH YR2064★3—
BRANDON ROSESRET
492ND YR1970★3—
JESSE POWELL IIDBPORTAL · ELON
494TH YR1128★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
LIB
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CCU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
44.6
41.7
— OFFENSE
44.8
46.3
— DEFENSE
44.3
37.1
SP+ OVERALL
-7.1
-9.5
FPI
-9.2
-9.7
ELO
1697
1270
TALENT
633
574
PRODUCTION
36
15
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−5
+13
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.06
0.12
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
LIB
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CCU
OFF EFFICIENCY
62
8
DEF EFFICIENCY
50
22
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
33
60
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
27
41
FINISHING DRIVES
43
43
FIELD POSITION
48
34
TURNOVER MARGIN
9
36
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
LIB
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CCU
PASS RATE
42.2%
53.8%
PACE
28.1s
27.7s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
75.0%
57.5%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
75.0%
76.7%
PLAYS / GAME
64.0
65.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
3.9%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = LIB, ORANGE = CCU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE